Amsterdam, the capital of The Netherlands looks set to have a bumpy Sunday, after a hard-core of anti-vaxers has announced unapproved demonstrations on that day, which have turned into riots before, while the police has announced a strike on that day.
The police strike was suppose to be confidential, but leaked out. Despite this the police announced that they would continue the strike against high work pressure anyway.
The bird-flue pandemic has now reached all parts of Europe.
Another one that comes every year from China.
Omicron cases have gone up explosively around the world, but it appears that T-cells - part of the immune system - can easily deal with Omicron, provided that a person has been in contact with another COVID19 variant or vaccinated.
In China the government is doubling down on it's COVID-zero strategy, with local government acting more and more hysterical, which leads to excesses such as human smugglers being derided in public, and food shortages for people locked up in Xi'an where the lockdown has been expanded and extended.
No significant news
No significant news
The president of failed state Somalia disposed the prime minister, in what can only be described as a coup.
Somalia exists as a city state with tribal areas around it, which are all self-governed. The only reason the government exists is the presence of African Union peace-keepers. Somalia shows clearly that western style parliamentary democracy does not work in areas that are not homogeneous, and should instead go for a federated democracy where only foreign policy is done by the state.
There are strong indications that omicron is not more contagious than the delta COVID19, but is simply working faster.
This would mean it is ahead of the curve, but not spreading faster. It would explain the "flash mob" properties in ZA where it comes with a bang, and disappears as quickly as it came.
Locals transmitted cases of omicron the latest COVID19 variant, have been detected in the Chinese cities of Tianjin, Changsha, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
It is unknown if the big cluster in Xi'an is also omicron. It remains to be seen if the march of omicron can be halted, or if the virus will spread faster then China can lock people up.
The US's James Webb Space Telescope has successfully launched.
Fundamental answers to questions about the formation of the universe are within reach, including the role of dark matter in the formation of early galaxy's.
Countries around the world are putting extra measures into place to slow down the spread of omicron
Wait and see
A board director of the China Banknote Printing and Minting Corporation, part of China's central bank is investigated for printing approx. 2 trillion Yuan for personal purposes.
it is a clear sign of how deep the rot is in China that something like this can happen. Scandals like this were covered up and washed away by the huge economic boom, but now that growth is lagging China can't afford these kind of scandals. The problem of course is that he was not acting alone, and that he was likely protected at the highest levels within the CCP.
China is furious at Alibaba, a huge e-commerce and infrastructure company in China, that is has not reported the Log4j bug to the government, so that it could weaponize it.
Which is of course exactly the reason why the open source hackers did not report it to the government first. They would have been forced to keep it hidden, and the whole world would be insecure.
Studies so seem to suggest that omicron has a hospitalization rate that is 1/3 of other COVID19 variants.
A five times faster spread still means overflowing hospitals if nothing is done to bring down the speed of spread, but this is hopeful news.
The US is testing a new program, called "rapid dragon", designed to use existing civilian airline planes to launch anti-ship cruise missiles.
It seems like the US is anticipating a conflict with China which requires it to rapidly launch huge amounts of anti-ship missiles to fend of a Chinese marine invasion Taiwan involving China's maritime militia. Meanwhile, China is giving farmers subsidies if they switch from crops like flowers and fruit to rice and soybeans, with the explicit goal of making the country self-sufficient in food, while it prepares for war with the US, which it claims is justified, because: "lots of people in China want to invade Taiwan".
Growth in China is slowing down, despite regulators making easy leans available to small companies.
China's economy depends on 4 main drivers: Export (+/- 20% of GDP), Housing ( +/- 30% of GDP), government / infrastructure spending (around 20% of GDP), and domestic consumption (+/- 30% of GDP). Since local government already have huge off-book debts, and land sales make up a big chunk of the income, as much as 50% of GDP is under pressure. More exports is unlikely, since foreign company's are diverting supply chains away from China because of: higher wages, insecure economic politics under Xi, and Geo-national tensions, again thanks to Xi's policy's. Domestic savings can't compensate, since most savings are held in real-estate, and those savings are not just highly illiquid, but are also fast dropping in value.It also doesn't help that Xi outlawed several sectors of the economy, because of Xi's paternalistic moralism. The only option left is cost reduction (hence "Dual Circulation"), but China is not far enough up on the value-chain to cut foreign suppliers. Also: foreign import are the only leverage China has left (again thanks to Xi's nationalistic policies).
China's bank regulator is stimulating take-overs and mergers of real-estate companies and making loans available for doing so, while the major propaganda outlets emphasize the need for economical stability in a sign that the impact of the real-estate bubble collapse is starting to get real.
It is trying to engineer a Japanese style soft landing, that will spread and defuse the pain, but this lead to the famous lost decade in Japan.
According to the Daily NK - a website dedicated to news from North Korea, run by defectors - anybody found in NK with We-Chat is now automatically prosecuted as a spy.
There is a lively smuggling network running between China and NK, and People in NK have no other means of communicating than by connecting to cell-towers close to the Chinese border.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Israel's army has updated it's rules of engagement to allow soldiers to shoot fleeing rock and Molotov-cocktail throwers in the back.
In Hollywood movies it's not the good guys who shoot their opponent in the back.
House prices in Australia are falling as it's housing market is following the fallout of the collapse of the Chinese housing bubble.
Chinese buyers were responsible for much of the rising house-prices in Australia.
Omicron is now responsible for the fast majority of US and UK COVID19 cases, as the new wave is rolling over the world.
Australia and the UK have ruled out lockdowns, because why would you learn from earlier mistakes? Meanwhile China is testing millions to battle a major outbreak in Xi'an and India confirmed Omicron cases in more then 12 states, and the WHO warned that there are no indications that omicron is milder then Delta.
Investigations into the dead of migrants trying to cross the Chanel between France and the UK confirm that the coast guards of these countries don't bother rescuing migrants trying to cross.
It confirms signals from Greece, Hungary, Poland and Italy that the EU migrant policy is fundamentally bankrupt. It should be replaced with a policy where asylum has to be requested at a local embassy, and/or online.
The World is holding it's breath while omicron is spreading with lighting speed through the world - developed countries first - in what seems like a fast replay of the first COVID19 outbreak.
The question is mostly how much hospitalizations this variant will cause. We will know the answer in less then 2 weeks.
NASA has found the equivalent of wet soil in a deep huge canyon on Mars.
This is likely very salty, and is either wet soil, or permafrost.
The Netherlands announced a near complete lockdown to deal with a expected exponential rise of omicron, a COVID19 variant.
For the first time since the COVID19 pandemic started the Netherlands decided to actively take measures before it is to late.
Omicron is spreading with alarming speed in the World, with a doubling rate counted in 1 to 3 days, due to it's ability to not only spread faster than Delta, but also to infect vaccinated people.
And the only upside, a less troubling sickness escalation might not be true, according to a Danish study.
China has stepped in, and effectively taken over Evergrande's management, to manage the unwinding of the company's debts in the latest episode of the slow-motion crash of the real-estate bubble.
Expect more Chinese real-estate companies to follow.
Omicron is spreading rapidly around the world, with most developed countries that have any variant monitoring reporting local cases.
Hold on to your hat. We could be in for a bumpy ride.
The government of the UK is limping from failure to disaster, with both parties having lost confidence in PM Boris Johnson.
He seems to be an effective communicator provided that others take care of the hard work of actually knowing what you are talking about and doing the right thing, but a court where he is the center, and all critical voices have been removed is clueless, paralyzed and stumbling.
Another zero-day security exploit is doing the rounds on the internet, leading to frantic patching.
log4j allows arbitrary lookups of user-specified strings, which can also be expanded into local Unix commands. The problem in the case is that software such as Elastic Search (ES), which is used for storing massive amounts of data uses Apache struts, which in turn uses log4j. Same for some other widely used backend software.
Pakistan, a notorious - nuclear armed - crazy country, that only exports violent Islamist terrorists, has decided to establish a universal health care system and a food aid program for the poor.
The Pakistani economy is bankrupt, and is now only propped up by Saudi aid. Crippling inflation has made daily life more difficult and the local Taliban is trying to kill cricket-players after renouncing a cease-fire, but this is a clear step in the right direction.
Israel asked the US to speed up delivery of new in air refueling airplanes.
Israel want to be able to strike Iran next year, but the US wants the airplanes delivered in 2023, probably to give negotiations about Iran's nuclear program a change.
In the UK the number of Omicron COVID19 cases has gone up by 65% in the last 4 days, to a total of 3137 which is clearly exponential.
Luckily all reports indicate so far that Omicron is much less aggressive than the delta variant leading to less hospitalizations, but it might make up for this in sheer numbers that could overwhelm the hospitals. The best case would be that Omicron is so mild that it would be like a seasonal flu - but one that also helps people's immune-system against the Delta variant - and therefore acts like a sort of natural vaccine, ending the corona-epidemic and leaving variants of omicron as a normal flue.
Turkey's valuta de-valuated further, thanks to the economic policies of it's "crazy uncle" dictator.
Not coincidently this man now wants to control social media, labeling it a "threat to democracy".
no news
Serbians in Bosnia have voted "yes" on taking steps to start breaking up the Bosnia's country.
As long as it happens peacefully, and in normal collaboration, any group of people should be allowed their independence.
Information has showed up about the aftermath of the US 2020 elections that clearly show that the events of January the 6th 2021 were not a simple demonstration getting out of hand, but the result of conscious decision-making.
For one, there was a crack team that was dedicated to "proving that the elections were a fraud", and also pressure was there all the time to declare a "State of Emergency" because of alleged foreign hacking of voting machines. The only thing that stopped most of the attempts, was that people in Trump's own administration and ministries declared that they would not go along. If not America would have had it's first fascist coup.
Tehreek-e-Taliban, the Taliban in Pakistan has announced an end to it's cease fire agreement with the Pakistan government.
Pakistan's long term behavior of breeding religious extremists nutters to fight proxy wars is backfiring. Who would have thought that religious extremists are not willing to compromise?
China's real-estate market has come to a abrupt stop, as everybody in China believes house prices will crash.
Houses are no longer seen as a save investment vehicle, a development made worse by the looming property tax, which itself is necessary to prevent all local government in China from going bankrupt. This of course also means that the book value of all unsold apartments and ground plots of the big real-estate companies in China has become zero.
China is escalating it's economic trade war against tiny Lithuania in a case of "killing the chicken to scare the monkey", by threatening international companies that they will be blocked in China if they trade with Lithuania. The EU is trying to negotiate, but got snubbed by China.
This will predictably lead to EU member countries closing ranks, and a trade war between China and the EU, besides the ones it already has against Australia, The US, Canada, Taiwan, Japan, and soon the rest of the world. The big question is how long it will take for the world to kick China out of the WTO, since it has never abided by any of it's rules.
According to Fitch, an international rating agency, the Chinese real-estate companies Evergrande and Kaisa are now in a "restricted default", signaling that the slow-motion crash is now getting in a new phase.
"restricted default" is code for: they couldn't pay, and should declare default because those are the terms of the contract, but instead they are hoping it will all go away if they pretend it doesn't exist, and when you finally twist their arm, they will try to negotiate. But in this case negotiations are useless, since there are simply no money or useful assets left. Best case outcome is that money is raised through new shares to pay haircuts on outstanding bonds, and after that the shareholders discover that their shares are worthless.
China's Winnie the Pooh look alike is pushing for extra-territorial application of Chinese laws.
It's really annoyed that people in other countries say that it's brutal dictatorship, that lets people disappear if they say anything about it, and wants a way to make those people disappear.
Evergrande failed to pay 82.5 million dollar, that was due on 6 November - and had outlived it's grace period - which should start official cross-loan bankruptcy proceedings.
Don't could on Evergrande declaring bankruptcy though, expect it to attempt to haggle. In China failure to adhere to agreements is not the end of a relation, but just the start of negotiations.
No news
Researchers find that the new spreading COVID19 variant Omicron has a most likely picked up a part of a normal flu virus, and reports indicate so far that Omicron is less deadly than other variants.
Which would be a good thing considering that omicron has escaped attempts to halt it's spread.
In China officials are signaling that Hong Kong's laws take second place after Chinese constitutional laws, which is opening the door to stripping any remaining rule of law protections that still exist in Hong Kong.
This after 'special government advisers' took over in Macao, in a further centralization drive for total control from Beijing. Taiwan will surely take notice.
Real estate company's in China are seeking asset-backed securities, in a way to bypass the "3 red lines" that limit further lending, in a attempt to prevent outright bankruptcy.
Yesterday's news about real-estate developers stating that they do not have enough money should be seen as communication to regulators, to get them to agree to this attempt to continue blowing the bubble.
Bitcoin, and other crypto-currencies went off a cliff today, losing as much as 30% of it's value.
Monopoly-money, just like post-stamp collections and other collectables have no intrinsic value, and therefore no bottom. Nobody believes that bitcoin or any of the other crypto-products out here are going to replace the financial sector. It is a pump & dump and carry/inside trade casino, which is it's only redeeming quality.
The chairman of Evergrande a real-estate developer in China, has stated that - just like Kaisa - it does not have enough money to fulfill it's financial obligations, while regulators scrambled to state that China's housing-market will remain stable.
The flow-motion train-crash that we are witnessing in China now is continuing. It will only stop when all debt has been cleared, or the government absorbs all the losses. It's clear that the CCP tries to do a Japan style silent crash, but that will simply lead to a lost decennium.
A non peer reviewed study in South Africa finds "clear, population-level evidence to suggest substantial immune evasion by the Omicron variant". It also finds "no evidence of increased re-infection risk associated with circulation of Beta or Delta variants compared to the ancestral strain in routine epidemiological data from South Africa."
In other words: Here we go again.
Russia will put forward proposals for a European security pact, to manage relation and to prevent NATO from expanding toward it's borders without a buffer-country.
NATO should grab this opportunity to stabilize relations with Russia so the US can focus on China's aggressive overtures. A agreement that guarantees that Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Finland will neither be part of NATO nor threatened by Russia could help usher in a period of relaxation, and draw Russia further into the cultural sphere of the EU.
China is cracking down on all possible sources of money outflow, including but not limited to: casino's, NFT's, bitcoin and other crypto currencies and listing companies on remote stock exchanges, while banks have been ordered not to speculate on the value of the Yuan.
Also: the civil service state exams have become highly popular, with 2 million candidates eyeing 31 thousand jobs, while in 2003 only 125 thousand candidates wanted to work for the government.
Omicron the COVID19 variant is continuing it's spread around the world, and turns out to have been around in several countries at least weeks before South Africa sounded the alarm.
Meanwhile the media is asking the wrong questions, such as which variant spreads faster, because the delta variant could then outrun omicron, but the real question is of course if being infected with delta or being vaccinated prevents serious infection from omicron. The fact that so many people on planes from South Africa were infected, suggests that those people were vaccinated, and therefore not tested, but still carried omicron and got sick from it.
Tensions between Russia and NATO are rising, as Russia is claiming that NATO want to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, and station troops there, and has been massing a substantial army at the border. This in a background of mutual distrust as NATO, the US and Russia have been expelling staff from each other's embassy's.
NATO has been supplying Ukraine with weapons, and has done training in international context since the 1990's, but there does not seem to be anything that can be described as a "NATO presence" in the country.
Russia will no longer use Ukraine as a gas transit country after 2024, thereby denying Ukraine billions in funding according to Naftogaz.
This is of course completely unrelated to Germany's reluctance to certify the new North-Stream II natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
No news
No news
stock markets worldwide are down as governments worldwide are taking measures to try to prevent / slow down the spread of the new Omicron variant which has already been detected in several European and Middle East countries.
First indications are that people that have been vaccinated, or that had COVID19 before can be re-infected. In other news: Molnupiravir is far less effective that earlier reported.
The new COVID19 variant will go by the name Omicron.
Lets hope that - like the letter - this will stay small.
COVID19 variant B.1.1.529 is setting off alarms bells around the world, with most countries limiting flights from area's where this variant is active.
This variant not only has really different spikes, which negates vaccine induced immunity, but it is also spreading really fast in South Africa. Will this be the Epsilon? Although alarming, we now have several kinds of anti-body therapies, a new generic virus blocker, and massive amounts of capacity and the knowledge to make new vaccines.
The number of pirate attacks on the coast of Somalia has been dramatically reduced since 2019.
Marine ships might have something to do with that.
Unrest on the Solomon Islands spread from anger at the prime minister towards the local Chinatown, amidst the widespread conviction that the prime minister was bribed to drop political recognition of Taiwan in favor of China.
It doesn't help that China is known for bribing and secretive back-room deals, although that is not the fault of the poor people who's business burned. Expect bizarre claims from the Global-Times that this is actually the US's fault.
China's prime minister, the designated bad news/fall guy, is ringing the alarm-bell that economic growth in China both short term, and long term is in trouble, while its banking regulator is urging banks to give and extend loans to industries.
The nationalistic course set out by it's Winnie the Pooh lookalike discouraged investment that might have helped prevent the middle income trap, and with it's population dividend changing to a elderly people costs sink it's in for a lot of trouble. High savings might have offset that, but with the housing bubble popping, high off-balance sheet local government debt, and wasteful spending on the BRI, things don't look bright for the future.
Organized looting is hitting several stores in the US.
Maybe the looters are copying the tactics used in South Africa.
NASA launched DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test that will be the first ever attempt to deflect the orbit of a small meteorite.
We might go the way of the dodo, but we won't go the way of the dinosaurs.
The US, China, Japan, India, South Korea and the UK, plan to simultaneous release oil from their respective strategic reserves to dampen the price of oil, and thereby inflation.
Inflation is biting.
The effective dictator of Turkey, vowed to continue fighting it's "economic war of independence", which is apparently keeping interest rates lower than the inflation rate.
Predictably the rest of the world thinks he is a mad uncle, and acted accordingly, sending the lire plumbing.
Regulators in China have ordered banks to expand credit to developers this November in a bid to give the crashing real-estate sector room to breath, while companies like Evergrande are listing more shares in a bid to raise money.
Evergrande is doing it through it's electric car company, but the money will without a doubt be used to extend the suffering of the real-estate company, while it's chairman Hui is trying desperately to play poker with the state and everybody else (it worked before).
Tensions on the border between Belarus and EU countries and Russia and Ukraine remain high, due to the refugees trying to enter the EU and Russia's military buildup.
Although no party wants a full-blown conflict, changes are that miscalculations or dynamics on the ground, can lead to escalation with unforeseen consequences.
Insecurity is griping the financial markets, with sky-high stock and housing markets, high inflation, downward Bitcoin, a collapsing housing market in China and risks popping up everywhere due to bad loans and *geopolitical insecurity *.
Insecurity leads to fear, fear leads to panic, panic leads to irrational thinking & fleeing in safety..
No big news
Anti-lockdown riots escalated into a orgy of violence, mostly directed against the police, in Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Other demonstrations planned for the next day in other cities were canceled by their respective organizers, who were shaken by the ferocity of the violence in Rotterdam.
After the Netherlands, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia and Belgium also go into a limited COVID19 induced lockdown.
The whole of Northern Europe is in full influenza season.
India decided to withdraw its controversial farm liberalization laws.
After a year of protests and recently 8 deaths Modi decided that this was a battle he could not win.
The slow motion real-estate crash in China continues, with Evergrande selling off more assets such as shares in HengTen, a Netflix clone.
Others developers have seen the light, and are directly issuing new shares at steep discounts, now that the bond market has locked up, and house sales have come to a complete stop.
Walking dead Evergrande is selling assets in a fire sale to raise funds in a bit to delay the inevitable. A electric motor maker it bought for $78.4 million was sold for $2.3 million.
High risk credit markets in and for China have dried up, which means that there is no way the principle can be rolled over. Only a bail-out can save Evergrande.
ConsenSys, a web3.0 company has raised $200 million, which gives it a valuation of $3.2 billion.
Web 3.0 is the idea that you can create value by doing exactly the same as is happening right now, but then distributed and 10x more expensive.
China has restricted access to AIS ship tracking data collected in Chinese waters to domestic users only.
China is falling back on old instincts that tells them that any data can and will be used against you, a instinct that in the longer term will revert all the progress of the last 40 years. It also is a clear sign that the maritime militia are going to play a big role in the planed conquest of Taiwan, probably by massing a huge fleet of 8.000 ships - of which 400 will be PLAN marine ships - towards Taiwan.
The US US-China Economic and Security Review Commission annual report reports about the security threat from China : "The CCP is a long-term, consequential, menacing adversary" and "combined triumphal-ism and paranoia elevate the likelihood of risky decisions, aggression and miscalculation by Beijing and necessitate US vigilance."
It recommends massive amounts of ballistic and anti-ship missiles, and increased intelligence. Surprisingly clear-eyed analyses and advice.
Rising inflation is causing insecurity among investors and putting pressure on central banks worldwide to raise interest rates.
The inflation is a temporary effect caused by resorting, restarting and re-balancing commodities, production and logistics, but it is forcing policymakers to be seen as doing something. Problem is that higher interest rates will crater the house-market, increase insolvency rates, slow economic growth and cause the stock-market to nose-dive.
Massive flooding cut of all the roads between Vancouver and the rest of Canada.
The flooding is due to the huge amounts of rain that fell from an bigger then normal atmospheric river, due to climate change.
China has set a course for energy-efficiency, 'anti-money worshiping', anti 'hedonism', and against 'extreme individualism', and toward 'stronger ideological work', and 'stricter governance'.
The familiar top-down approach coming out of Beijing seems determined to crush another sector of the economy into the ground, while hyphening up it's North-Korea style moral-ism.
Debris in orbit around the earth forced astronauts in the International Space Station to perform maneuvers to dodge it, and made parts of the space station unsafe.
According to the Pentagon the debris is the result of Russia testing a anti-satellite weapon. This happened before when China and the US did the same, and is likely meant as not just a test, but as a warning that Russia has the capability to take down any satellite..
China state media are emphasizing that: 'The focus of common prosperity is an adjustment from "making the cake bigger" to "cutting it fairly".',
Which together with getting rid of GDP growth targets, and popping of the real-estate bubble, seem to suggest that the state thinks that the period of economic growth in China is over.
Chinese state media are writing that China will press for "national reunification" with Taiwan "no matter the cost" and "Washington must understand that it has gone too far, leaving China with no way back.", all signaling that the 3rd term of China's dictator will be when the Taiwan issue will be decided.
The usual bluster which can be translated as: She wanted to leave me, therefore I had no choice but to kill her. China does not seem to understand that threatening an American does not lead to the American hiding indoors as Chinese would do, but to the American buying a bigger gun. The fact that China is building up it's military could lead the US the decide that if there is to be a conflict, it will happen on it's terms, not when China is ready. The same kind of thinking by German planners lead to WW1. The GlobalTimes is also calling India a "Loser" for militarizing the border following the border skirmishes with China, and calling Europe falling and stubborn for not listening to China in what must be a bid to make enemies with everybody.
China has been pressuring US companies in a bid to drop the tariffs the US has instated against China, and to stop other laws that seek to enhance US competitiveness.
The official China line that it is US companies and consumers paying for the tariffs is not true. It has helped convince companies to move their supply chains to countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia, thereby reducing the time China has in moving up the value-chain (the middle income trap). The fact that the tariffs are hurting was already quite clear from the fact that China was seeking several times to have them removed as a precondition to start talks. It is astonishing that China understands the mind-set of the rest of the US so badly that they thought this would a) have effect, and b) not leak out, and have the exact opposite effect.
According to recruiters there is a exodus of employers heading for the exit at Facebook.
It seems that their own people don't believe in the metaverse or the company, and can't convince them-self to stay.
The US is considering adding Germany, Japan, South-Korea and India to the Nine Eyes intelligence sharing group that so far consists of the UK, US, Australia and New Zealand.
Pakistan, the "iron brother" of China, that was hiding and aiding Al-Qaeda and the Taliban while officially an ally of the US, is fuming in anger that the US wants to work with India, and threatens to withhold cooperation on issues such as Afghanistan. Remember: If the name of the country ends with 'stan', it is bat-shit crazy.
North Korea, the country that thinks that squid game is too humane has been taking measures to ensure that their slave labor in China and Russia doesn't run away.
There are about 50.000 North Koreans working in China, who sometimes do mass attempts to break out of the labor camps they are being held in, despite the risks to their families.
The number of persons leaving Armenia is reaching record numbers.
Almost 3% of the population (temporally?) left for Russia.
The border wars continue with Belarus reportedly using non-lethal weapons against border guards and handing out cutters and tear gas to migrants trying to cross the border into Poland and Lithuania.
Airlines have reported that they will no longer fly migrants to Belarus for fear of being blacklisted by the EU for helping in this hybrid war.
Inflation in China is running out of control, and it is doubtful ether China can raise interest rates, setting the stage for runaway inflation.
Fuel, commodity, vegetable and factory pricing is already sky-high, but since company debt is huge in China it would lead to technical default for massive amounts of company's if the interest rates where increased, while inflation would make them manageable..
Russian troop build-up at the border of Ukraine has fueled fears that it might invade Ukraine.
Russia has denounced flights of NATO spy planes along the Black Sea coast.
India is in the process of outlawing crypto-currencies.
This after concern was raised by the central bank that crypto-currency's are highly volatile, and the government voiced concern that they are used for money laundry and terrorism financing. It seems unrelated to the Karnataka bitcoin scam.
Mumbai is on the alert after a tipoff about a potential bomb threat from a insane informant.
The caller, who lives with his mom did similar callings a week before, and according to his relatives he is insane and does this all the time.
A energy positive method to convert ammonia (NH3) to hydrogen (H2) has been found.
Although pure ammonia is not nice to handle, hydrogen bound to nitrogen in ammonia is the easy-st way to store large amounts of hydrogen in and for shipping, trucks and backup power, . The hydrogen economy is really the ammonia economy.
An unusual COVID19 variant B.1.640 has been found in France, Italy, Swiss and the UK which has unusual spikes.
It infected 24 people at a French school, and is believed to have originated in Africa where likely more strains are circulating.
Inflation is on the rise around the world, and no longer limited to shipping and energy.
Shortages of workers in the US and EU make it likely that raising wages will lock-in part of the inflation.
India's chief defense general states that China has become it's biggest security threat.
Another of Xi's "brilliant moves". If China would not have picked a fight with India to show it who's boss, India would not have been part of the Quad.
A China propaganda mouthpiece again declares that the US should not question it's determination in reaching it's unshakeable goal.
Another of Xi's "brilliant moves". If China would have simply kept it's word, and allowed Hong Kong to keep it's own internal politics until 2046, Taiwan could have been persuaded to relinquish it's foreign policy, and simply become a - mostly self-ruled - autonomous province within China. Instead it seems to think that others will give it what it want if it only wants it badly enough, which is classic wishful thinking. The US is simply warning that it will shoot back if China starts shooting Taiwan, and the more threatening China behaves, the more countermeasures against it it creates.
The sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CCP approved it's dictator's full speed ahead crash-course towards a centralized, fascist economy and WW3 over Taiwan with the Quad and NATO.
After Mao's cultural revolution got China on it's knees, Deng got it to stand on one feet again, and now Xi is determined to get it's leg shot off. This farmer hastily made a looks-like-it copy of some weapons with inferior materials, and rushes of to use it into battle against his aggressive American neighbor who has been fighting for years, is supported by his friends and the whole neighborhood and who doesn't skimp on material and practicing.
Palm oil might be a driver for cancer proliferation, according to a new study.
This is good news for the Indonesian rain forests, but terrible news for Unilever.
India is asking for 1 trillion dollar to help switch to green sources of energy instead of building massive amounts of coal-powered plants, since coal does not have to be imported.
Nice planet you have there .. would be a shame if something were to happen to it.
Afghanistan is emptying as people are voting with their feet, and are driven by the worsening economic situation.
More then 4000 people a day have been crossing the Iranian border alone since the fall of Kabul.
Tensions between the EU and Belarus are escalating as Belarus is actively helping migrants get into the EU, while Poland is using violence against asylum seekers, which is clearly against refugee treaties.
Russia correctly pointed out that this is because there is a clear conflict between what the EU claims to stand for, and the desire to keep migrants out.
Evergrande is trying another slight of hand to raise funds to continue their desperate all-or-nothing gambling, this time with stock sales to itself, to be used as collateral?
Nio a EV car-maker that has been operating since 2018 is having a hard time in the current marker, but Evergrande which has never produced a car claims it can start manufacturing 6 models now, and be so successful that it will compensate for the hundreds of billions of losses it raked up in it's real-estate company.
Scientists have made record observations of gravitational waves, and can use these to observe things deep in the universe that are right now hidden.
Most of the new observations so far have been black holes merging or circling, which generates massive waves, and more is likely to follow when smaller waves can be detected.
Zambia, South Africa has major electric power issues as power went down in Zambia, which dragged down the whole Southern African Power Pool.
SA is set to build more coal power plants, while its Mineral Resources and Energy Minister calls upon other African nations to unite, to resist cutting greenhouse gases.
Kazakhstan is buying electricity from Russia as it is struggling to keep the grid from falling over as Bitcoin mining moved from China to the US and Kazakhstan.
Problems will be even worse next year, as Kyrgyzstan has a water shortage which will limit hydro-power generation.
The foreign hackers targeting airlines in China turns out to be Flightradar24, a well known website that displays flights all over the world in real-time using transponder information.
The Chinese obsession with secrecy and fishing in troubled water does not work well with public cloud services or any information service. In related news: one of the few usable sources of information in China, the SCMP is rumored to be taken over and neutered by a SOE.
The flow-motion car crash that is the collapse of the China real-estate bubble continues, with Kaisa Group asking for help amid disclosures it has off book debt and is out of cash.
meanwhile Evergrande and Aoyuan managed to offload some assets.
There have been more then 8 animal outbreaks of bird-flu in The Netherlands, and more in other countries in Northern Europe.
The flu is spread by wild ducks from flu reservoirs of breeding ducks in China. No indications have been found that the flue can spread to humans.
Both China and the US claim that foreign hackers - (in each case that of the opposing country) - have been hacking sensitive industrial targets.
I believe them both.
COVID19 is on the match in the Northern Hemisphere, with record numbers for low vaccination countries in Eastern Europe and Russia, but also unusually high endemic numbers in China.
In related news: India has at least 89 people with the Zika virus.
The WFP is warning for hunger in countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Ethiopia and Lebanon, besides the usual suspects in sub-Sahara Africa.
Maybe Saudi-Arabia and the Gulf countries and Pakistan are willing to continue helping the Taliban?
The SEC in the US has started the process of kicking out Chinese company's that can't hand over audit reports from it's stock exchanges, which will cumulate in these company's being expelled in 2024.
China is allergic to showing any information, since it considers any openness a potential stick to hit it with. See also the noisy emotions around TSCM sharing information. Chinese company's can't even share audit information, since doing so has - conveniently - been made illegal in China.
Another bus has been hijacked and torched in Northern Ireland, while the UK is again leaking coded threats to the press that it might tear up the Brexit deal.
London claims the border checks in the Irish sea are disproportionate and are stoking tensions in Northern Ireland, although it knows very well that those tensions are nothing compared to tensions that will erupt if a hard border is reintroduced in Ireland, which will blowup the Good Friday accords.
Tensions in Bosnia are rising, with the Serbian fraction taking steps to segregate from the fragile Bosnia federation.
Let them. Every geographic group has the right to determine their own future.
After more than 5 years of haggling and cajoling a US infrastructure bill has finally passed congress.
1 trillion might seem much, but it is less then 5% of US GDP, spread over 4 years.
Pfizer created a oral COVID19 pill, which it claims is highly effective in reducing hospitalization.
Besides Merck's Molnupiravir and now Paxlovid we also have anti-body therapy and anti-inflammation therapies. It might not look like it now, but the fight against COVID19 is over. We won.
A modified DJI drone was used in a failed 2020 attach on a electrical substation in the US.
The most surprising is how cheap such a attack is.
99 people died and at least 100 where injured in a explosion in Freetown, Sierra Leone, when people tried to scavenge fuel from a fuel tanker caught in a small traffic accident.
Accidents like this happen quite a lot but people never seem to get the message, or they know from experience that the changes of a explosion are quite low.
Several countries in the EU have changed their COVID19 passport requirement from vaccinated / had it / passed a test to only vaccinated / had it.
Integrity of the human body is a fundamental right, and requirement to be vaccinated or be effectively banned from public spaces clearly undermines that right, no matter how pressing controlling COVID19 is..
North Korea has ordered is military to be prepared for "No. 1 combat readiness"
This apparently in response to US, South Korea military exercises.
Pakistan is scrambling to buy LNG to be delivered within this month.
Sounds like the lights might go out next month.
The latest developments in the slow motion popping of China's housing bubble are that Xinyuan Real Estate and Yango Group managed to delay payment of bonds, while China Properties Group defaulted on a $226 million bond and Kaisa shares have suspended trading .
In a effort to calm markets Hong Kong's SFC claims there are no systemic financial risks, while China's central bank said that spillover effect are controllable, and that dollar bonds should be repaid, but JPMorgan cut forecasts of growth 1% lower. Banks meanwhile are reluctant to give mortgages, but mortgage-backed securities are now up offering a route to get mortgages of their books, with the explicit approval of the central bank. Coastal provinces are told to allocate land for social housing in coastal provinces, which will not help stabilize prices.
The Fed, BoE and ECB will for now not raise interest rates while economic growth disappoints and "temporary" inflation continuing, with food prices now the highest in the last 10 years, and energy prices still high up.
Calibrating supply lines up costs time and creates friction, which will disappear within a year, but for now its one step back.
After Grenfell-style fires, the recent collapse of a tower in Nigeria and one in Florida, and now power cuts in China it should be clear to anybody what the drawbacks of high-rise buildings are. If power is cuts, the pumps, the heating and the elevators are all dead, if there is a fire, a high-rise quickly becomes a dead-trap due to the updraft. And finally: construction and maintenance are critical.
China wants to stockpile metals such a cobalt and nickel so as to reduce it's dependence on foreign imports.
Which is a perfectly normal and smart thing to do, where it not against the background of heightening tensions in the Taiwan strait.
Another Chinese stock market listing withdrawal where again hints have been made that the listing process is at fault.
What is it that we don't see? Does a Red Prince want to be bribed?
The slow motion super-tanker crash that is the collapse of the housing bubble in China continues, with Kaisa missing payments on it's "common people targeted" bonds.
Kaisa is seeking buyers for it's properties, while Yango is seeking to do a slight of hand on it's dollar offshore bonds, while Evergrande sold it European electric car supplier Protean and Modern Land failed to pay bonds which triggers default legalese which it is trying to "woo" away. China's regulators are busy trying to make sure that any funds/proceeds that exist will be used to finish existing houses, which likely means that even bond-holders will be wiped out.
After GB, Russia and Eastern Europe, Western Europe is now also dealing with a up-tick in COVID19 cases as the flue season is in full swing.
Unless a variant such as A.30 manages to break through, the impact should be limited to mask mandates and horeca/crowd restrictions.
Prices of coffee beans on the open markets have almost doubled, due to bad weather in Brazil.
Coffee grinders buying beans on the open markets will feel the shocks, but consumer impact should be limited in the rich world, since raw manufacturing prices are a small part of the total price.
Algeria and morocco are again angry at each other for supporting each others independence fighters in respectively Western Sahara and Kabylia.
The escalation has included denying flyover, stopping gas transits, and limited unattributed military actions in borderlands.
COPS26 has failed to reach it's already very limited goals, and has even no agreement on methane emissions.
It was already clear that India, China and Russia would not agree to any commitment to stop burning coal in the foreseeable future, which necessitated the switch to methane as greenhouse-gas as a focal point to be able to claim any success, but even this failed hard.
COVID19 cases have continued to go up in China.
Expect more lockdowns, and extreme behavior, since going back upon the COVID-zero strategy means loosing face, and it is better to have 1,3 billion people suffer, then to have the leader admit he was wrong.
Panic buying broke out in China leading to empty shelves as people interpreted the stockpiling advice as a hint that the invasion of Taiwan was near.
In a empire where officials refuse to be clear, criticism is done by referring to old poems, and lying is normal to help maintain face, people have learned to overinterpretate.
Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Panama created a new protected marine wildlife zone (CMAR) to combine existing reserves, and protect migrating species.
The so-called Chinese "ghosts fleets" have become a real problem.
Loyalists in Northern Ireland have hijacked and torched a bus to express dissatisfaction with the NI protocol.
This could simply be solved by declaring that British sausages contain to little meat to qualify as meat-product, and are therefore allowed to be imported into the EU without restriction.
Another caravan of approx 3000 people is heading toward the US, while record number of Afghan people are clogging the immigration services of countries in the EU.
It seems like we're in a new Migration Period, even though climate change is just getting started.
Taiwan has announced it will start training it's reserve troops, as China is beating the drums of war.
No escalation is expected before the end of 2022 though.
Fighting in Tigray, Ethiopia has taken a turn as the ethnic group is now on a mars to the capital, while the government is asking people to take up arms to stop the TPLF.
Since the Oromo, the biggest ethnic group, has ganged up with the TPLF against a president who does not have to support of it's own tribe (the Oromo), it looks like the days of this government are numbered.
Another crypto currency got exposed as a scam, while the US Treasury Department is asking Congress for powers to regulate stable-coins.
This time it was Squid, a cryptocurrency trying to lift along on the popularity of the Netflix series.
China has a deep shortage of vegetables, leading to doubling of prices.
It's government has also called upon people to start stockpiling, but claims it's against possible COVID restrictions, not war with the US over Taiwan.
Poland is threatening to continue polluting if the EU doesn't back off from it's demands about an independent judiciary.
This while the Turow coal mine is already outlawed, and continues to operate anyway, making it quite clear what Poland thinks about climate change.
A luxury 21 floor residential building collapsed in Lagos, Nigeria, leading to 106 people dead or missing including its owner Femi Osibona.
At least the owner had an clear incentive to do quality control.
The Chinese propaganda outlet GlobalTimes reports that CSIRO is actually an espionage outlet, endangering China's national security, and that it has been given a warning as punishment after it was reported to the police, which also confiscated it's illegal income. This while it is asking the Chinese people to: "trust that we are constantly moving in the right way toward the goal of national reunification [with Taiwan]."
The "espionage" in question was monitoring and reporting how much plastic is floating in the sea around Shanghai. The Fifth column paranoia is taking it's toll.
93% of houses bought/sold by Zillow under their iBuyers program where sold at a loss.
Although the sample-rate was limited, the fact that Zillow stopped the program can indicate that it detected a market downturn, since it has a better view of the housing market is the US than anybody.
More and more evidence is being unearthed that confirms the first fascist president of the US actively planned to grab a second term by means of a coup, because his ego is to fragile to contemplate the alternative.
This is what you get when a mean kid does not get told "NO" at a young enough age.
The US's secretary of state warned his Chinese counterpart that the US strongly opposes China's threatening of Taiwan in terms that leave no room for interpretation.
After this and earlier statements by the president of the US, China now knows it will either have to do a extremely risky lightening strike attack, or wait to see if the US is really distracted / unable to interfere in the future. A lightening strike attack is unlikely to succeed.
The Taliban shot 12 people at an Afghan wedding for the crime of playing music .
Or in general: having fun. Greedy meme's don't want any competition. It doesn't matter whether its sex, culture, science, or sport: if it takes mind-share away from it, it must be bad.
North Korea, the country that has just extolled the delights of eating black swan as it's population is again suffering hunger and severe malnutrition, has threatened that the Taiwan issue could lead to war on the Korean Pensula.
China claims it has the right to invade Taiwan, since it was once for a short time part of the same country. Imagine if the US claims it has the right to invade the UK, because before the war of independence they were once a single country.
The EU is introducing new regulation aimed at securing IoT devices, through measures as no default passwords and automatic software-updates.
Any resulting regulation is planned to go into force in 2024
The US military has began training air-force pilots in recognizing and taking down Chinese fighter jets.
The result of the current view that China is the dominant threat to world piece, aka: "pacing threat", after China's military buildup last decennial and bellicose threatening of it's neighbors, friends and the whole world.
NASA's aging space telescope Hubble is again in "safe mode" due to a detected problem.
Time to finally retire it?
China's "Taiwan Affairs Office" claims that "Taiwan's fiscal revenue can be fully used to improve people's well-being" after "unification".
More silliness to understand the mind-set of the people involved: "All Taiwan compatriots who support the reunification and rejuvenation of the motherland will truly be masters of the island, participate in Taiwan's governance and the development of the motherland, and fully enjoy the well-being of development and glory of national rejuvenation" and "Those who forget their ancestors, betray the motherland and split the country will never come to a good end and will surely be spurned by the people and judged by history! The mainland will punish the diehard secessionists in accordance with the law and hold them accountable".
Democracy is not what you always thought it was, but: "democracy is to devote unsparing efforts in satisfying people's aspirations for a better life" according to China's dictators.
This from the same people why want you to believe that "human rights" includes food and shelter, and that it is therefore fine to kill, torture, silence people without so much as a trial because the "majority of the people will be better off".
Renergen, a company in South Africa has found natural gas with a unusual high concentration of helium a rare, but vital gas used for nice applications such as weather balloons.
Concerns were that the world was running out, but these concerns seem unfounded for now.
The US has an average house price to income ratio of 5.4, whereas a normal ratio should be around 2.6.
Deflation fueled by cheap SEA imports has left more money free to spend into scarce social status symbols such as housing, aggregated by near zero interest rates.
Ukraine used drones provided by Turkey in military action on it's East front against Russia backed separatists / independence fighters.
This drone has also been used to great effect by Azerbaijan and in Libya. It show that the next major war will be drone versus drone. The winner will likely be the one producing the most drones in the shortest time.
The US National Weather Service warns for record storm surges bringing the biggest tidal floods in almost 20 years to the state of Maryland.
Will Baltimore become a new 'New Orleans' type of warning to the participants of COP26? Apparently is really difficult to 1. Ban coal, 2. Institute a carbon tax / trading system, 3. Switch to electricity for transport, heating and cooking, 4. raise carbon taxes on imports from countries that refuse to play along.
China's real-estate slow motion collision continues to pick up steam as another developer bites the dust.
Yango Group is the next in line, after Evergrande, Fantasia Holdings, Sinic Holdings, China Properties, Modern Land and Chinese Estates while the NDRC meeting involved Kaisa Group, Shimao, Sino-Ocean Group, China Vanke, Central China Real Estate and Oceanwide Holdings.
Russia has imposed a nationwide paid vacation to stem drastic rising corona numbers.
Governments that peddle in propaganda and lies, always have a population distrustful of their own government. Or is this case of their government's insistence that their vaccine is safe.
Kenya's president has declared a national disaster as the drought hampering the country continues to threaten livelihoods and food security.
The size of a herd is seen as a proxy for wealth in herding societies, and when the rain finally falls those who have a alive although starving herd will quickly get a healthy herd, while those who sold early have to start from scratch.
Heavily armed special forces in Pakistan have drawn a 'red line' against the TLP march, warning that crossing it to continue to march on the capitol Islamabad will lead to bloodshed.
This after earlier confrontations with police officers lead to shootings and killings with machine guns by TLP supporters in their attempt to grab power in the bankrupt, nuclear armed country.
All economic headwind signs are on red.
It's is likely that in developed countries interest rates will increase, leading to housing price drops puncturing the current housing bubble. Monopolistic IT companies making up most of the S&P500 are facing regulatory action due to serious abuses. China's Pooh has killed several industries is his drive to make China more like North Korea and China is facing the popping of it's real-estate bubble. Supply chain troubles continue to keep consumption and profit low for the next year, and while prices for commodities are currently high, the long term outlook is less good. Worldwide tensions have increased, leading to decoupling and driving inefficiencies. Bitcoin and Ether have been exposed as massive insider trading pump and dump casino's where the house always wins. Will smart money flee in gold? The only positive lining is that the CCP will try to maintain stability while the politically sensitive winter games and two major political gatherings are up.
Evergrande and other real-estate developers continue to hang on to their fingernails, as Evergrande claims to manage to pay a 47 million dollar bond today.
Maybe the founder had some spare cash laying around? In the meantime the Chinese central bank is increasing loss-absorbing capacity in Chinese banks, preparing for a hard landing.
China is trying to cut spending on white elephant and vanity projects in the country in a attempt to cut the huge off-balance debts of the local governments.
Local government income through land sales has imploded, and the official goal has shifted from growth at all costs to balancing and common prosperity.
Let the world burn, is what India and Australia effectively are saying by refusing to commit to zero targets for greenhouse gases.
Saudi-Arabia of course agrees. Strange that countries that are most likely to literally become dead-zones seem most in a hurry to get there.
The Chinese threat toward Taiwan is one of the main concerns for the new China Mission Center of the CIA.
At least if we go into WW3, we will go in with eyes wide open.
In Vietnam 5 journalists have been convicted to prison terms for "abusing democratic rights and freedoms to infringe upon the interests of the state".
We tend to forget that - like Cuba - Vietnam is not a friend of human rights.
Russia's minister of natural resources announced 5.5 trillion rubles in investment in it's arctic regions in the next 3 years, with more to come in the years after that.
Nice to hear that Russia believes that climate change is real.
France and GB are continuing to argue over fishing rights around the Channel Islands, with France again threatening to effectively block access to it's harbours for English fishing boats and cutting of power to the islands.
France is accusing GB of not living up to it's agreement with the EU concerning historical fishing rights for French fishers around the Channel Islands in front of the French coast. If only there was a organization that could help safely guide such small petty problems into non-inflammatory territory.
The editor-in-chief of the Chinese propaganda-outlet GlobalTimes writes that if China where to attack, Taiwan would suddenly and immediately surrender.
Besides the usual propaganda bluster this whack-job article promulgates the common cynical believes within the upper echelons of the CCP that Taiwan politicians are simply trying to negotiation a higher price for submission, and that the US is only trying to use Taiwan as a stick to hit China with that will crumble the moment the moment stuff gets real.
After Djibouti, Cambodia, Pakistan, Feydhoofinolhu in the Maldives and the SCS, China will now build a base in Tajikistan.
It will probably keep insisting that China never went to war in modern times (except with Tibet, India, Vietnam, South-Korea and Taiwan and it's annexation of SCS islands from the Philippines).
Chinese real-estate developers are proposing negotiations over foreign debt repayment.
The Chinese model of extending loans, and taking haircuts could extend to western creditors if they would trust what the developers are saying (which they can't), and they are therefore more likely to try to declare bankruptcy to salvage what is there, and finally get the real picture. However: it might just be that the bond's Hong Kong pass-through structure don't give them the right to declare bankruptcy on the mainland, which could lead to a global withdrawal of capital from all Chinese bonds.
Russia has send bombers over the Barents Sea to harass NATO and/or test air defenses.
Remember this when you read complaints about US bombers again flying close to Russia, or US navy transiting through the Black Sea.
Daesh killed at least 11 people in al-Hawasha, East Iraq.
The attack and killings followed after villagers did not meet their demands after a earlier kidnapping, which seems to suggest that the Daesh cell is without support and resorting to desperate acts to survive.
The US's FCC is kicking China Telecom out off the grid within 6 months after concluding that China Telecom cannot operate as a independentt entity.
Expect loud noises from Beijing about unfair treatment of Chinese companies. It is also a clear sign that decoupling is far from over.
China continues to gobble up Hong Kong with the introduction of a censorship law to stiffly anything that might be deemed subversive or inappropriate.
Since the whole raison d'etre of Hong Kong is that it can interact with China without being a corrupt, censored, economically & juridically insecure cruel place this spells the effective end of Hong Kong.
Fuel shortages have emerged in failed state Haiti due to blockades by rival gangs who have partitioned the capital Port-au-Prince.
Tribal gangs now live off kidnappings and toll. The port's exit is blockaded by a gang that demands the resignation of the PM.
A.30 also known as A.POI.V2 is a COVID19 variant that evades existing vaccine induced anti-bodies.
It was first detected in Angola and now also in Sweden in spring 2021.
Another developer, Modern Land has defaulted as China's housing bubble continues to pop.
The domino-stones are falling, and will keep falling faster and faster.
COVID19 cases in China seem to be slowly getting out of control with more than 200 locally transmitted cases in Inner Mongolia.
This probably won't happen, since failing to contain corona would mean a huge loss of face.
US court documents from the New York Southern District appear to show massive amounts of collaboration and market distortion by Google and Facebook under the name Jedi Blue.
AMP and Google Chrome are only there of mitigate the need for cookies and keep users and ad markets locked-in, Google and Facebook already put into agreement of how to react if somebody finds out, Google does insider trading and manipulation on it's own platforms to artificially inflate prices.
Sudan's military (not South-Sudan) staged a coup and declared a state of emergency, while cutting off the internet
This apparently in support of ousted dictator Bashir, who faces extradition to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Papua New Guinea's health care system is reportedly overwhelmed with COVID19 cases.
Less then 1% percent of the third world country is vaccinated.
The UN warns that the number of people going hungry in Afghanistan has risen explosively.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars. I would not know what to do if I actually caught one." seems to apply to the Taliban.
2 people where killed, and 7 wounded in a terrorist bomb attack on the capital of Uganda, Kampala.
The attack has not yet been claimed.
China has rolled out a land tax in select regions.
Provincial income from land sales is set to drop dramatically, now that the housing bubble has burst.
Evergrande is claiming to resume building houses that still need to be finished.
Just like Wile E. Coyote, it believes that if it doesn't look down, it did not just went off a cliff. Also: the government cares most that ordinary citizen receive finished houses, or they will not be able to mortgage them.
Fighting is set to escalate in Northern Myanmar as movements of heavy weapons and army troop surges are setting the stage for new killings and refugee streams.
Besides the Rohingya and the Karen there is also the Kachin conflict.
Several policemen have been killed at rally's of the outlawed extremist TLP party on it's "brown-shirt" march towards the Pakistani capitol Islamabad.
They are upset that arbitrary killing of people loosely accused of saying something bad about Islam might not be tolerated anymore. Replace "stan" with "bat-shit crazy" and "it doesn't matter what the problem is, Islam is the solution" will give you a decent understanding of the situation in the Middle East and Middle Asia.
Evergrande managed to pull a rabbit from it's hat, by paying one bond coupon of 83 million dollar, thereby delaying a official bankruptcy with 7 days.
Announcing and then calling off sales of shares and assets, and now this seems to be a big desperate attempt to buy time to prevent having a independent curator go through the books and likely blow open the biggest bookkeeping fraud since Enron.
Evergrande's chairman Hui Ka Yan announced that it will try to become a electric car business, even though the real-estate company has never build or sold a car.
Since electric car production is one of the focal points of the CCP, and it's leader Xi Jinping this should be probably be seen as a desperate plea for rescue, which implies that Beijing has already repeatedly said "NO".
Radicalization and violence are spreading in Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh.
More then 6 people died in gang violence directed against a madrasa.
Moldova has declared a state of emergency over gas shortages due to rising prices, while Ukraine is set to get financially crunched when North Stream 2 opens.
Gas is one of the few geopolitical leverages that Russia has, and it is playing it's hand well. As soon as Germany allows the operation of NS2 Russia can cut gas-flow through Ukraine, which will not only deny Ukraine huge transit fees, but also makes it possible to cut off Ukraine completely effectively turning off the heat and the lights, without invoking the wrath of the entire EU..
Russia, Turkey and Lebanon are among the nations battling high inflation, with Russia raising the interest rate, Turkey lowering the interest rate, and Lebanon not having any effective government.
Russia's inflation rate is below 8%, while Turkey is suffering from the incompetence of it's dictator president who managed to destroy the independence of it's central bank, and got the Lire to dramatically drop in value.
The flu period in the northern hemisphere is leading to more COVID19 cases in all countries in Europe, with Eastern Europe taking the lead, leading to lockdowns in Russia, Ukraine and Latvia.
The rate of vaccination is approximate 1/3 in former Soviet states, compared to approx. 2/3 in Western Europe, due to a deep distrust against government among the population leading to 1064 people dyeing in Russia in a single day.
An explosives factory in Russia, Rjasan has exploded.
16 people died, and the factory is now a hole in the ground.
Biden, the president of the USA has stated that the US will defend Taiwan in case it is attacked by China in a interview with CNN that seems to be geared towards sending a unmistakable signal to China that a invasion will lead to WW3.
But officially there is no change in the position of the USA in regard to the "Taiwan Strait issue".
AY.4.2 a more contagious COVID19 variant has been detected in the UK, and the Netherlands.
Although the hospitalization or complication rate is not higher, and the vaccine protection also seems to hold.
All Law Enforcement Agencies in the Netherlands will have simple, automated access to all banking and payment transactions.
This while the banks in the Netherlands are busing with a "war on cash". The road to hell is paved with good intentions, and 1984 is getting closer and closer.
The mainstream media has picked up on the scams and dangers surrounding Tether.
Get ready with popcorn to watch at least two crypto bubbles to go pop.
The first successful xeno-transplantation has been done with a pig's kidney.
The patient was already brain-dead and the kidney from a pig that has been genetically engineered to not cause rejection.
The UK's bank regulators have again hinted that interest rates will rise in the near future to combat inflation.
It seems that the BoE does not believe that this inflation is transitory. Rising rates could lead to stagflation.
The US has send bombers over the Black Sea to harass Russia and/or test air defenses.
Remember this when you read complaints about Russian bombers again flying close to Germany, or Russian navy transiting through the Japanese Sea.
Paraguay is facing a power crunch, as the Itaipu dam is hampered by record low river levels.
The dam provides +/- 85% of power in Paraguay, and almost 10% of Basil's power.
China is doing a full nation effort to curb coal and power shortages to resolve "irrational pricing".
Moody, borderline politics makes China such a interesting place.
COVID19 minor outbreaks continue to pop-up in China, leading to strict lock-downs.
Eventually China will have to learn to live with Corona.
Taiwan's director of it's National Security bureau, says changes of a invasion by China are very low the next couple of years during President Tsai's term, while GlobalTimes, a propaganda outlet writes that "China's reunification must be completed" and "The definition of one China is shaped by [..] and the strong aspirations of the 1.4 billion Chinese people".
It is likely that Xi's 3rd term starting in 2022 will be geared towards more aggressive military moves, especially after Thai's term ending in 2023, and during US elections in 2024, one year before 2025, the year in which China is suppose to have the capacity required for a full scale invasion of Taiwan.
Evergrande's attempts to sell it's assets, such as it's offices and it's property management unit, have so far failed.
Is it possible that there are already big mortgages or claims on those? A company that starts extorting it's own employees for loans, and try's to pay it's contractors in natural does not do this because its it's first choice.
China's regulators are trying to sooth the markets by claiming that the popping of the real-estate bubble is controllable, and that credit by banks is being eased.
Meanwhile, house prices in china have been going down. Bubbles tend to end because people know long before they are being popped that they are in one, but prefer to ride it as long as possible.
Germany's Bundesbank president is voluntary resigning from his post with a last inflation warning as his swan-song.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Bitcoin is reaching new heights as the Bitcoin Strategy ETF is going online.
Digital currencies have re-enabled all kinds of pump and dump scams that have been outlawed on regulated exchanges.
A bug in the open source gpsd project could lead to millions of mobile devices setting their clock back to 2002 on next Sunday, October 24, 2021
Appliances that have not received updates such as weather stations and traffic lights are specifically vulnerable, but also drones, and mobile phones.
The FT has reported that Tether, a so-called stable-coin is loaning out Tether against other cryptocurrencies, instead of being pegged against the USD.
It's now officially out that Binance / Tether is giving out loans for Tether, against Bitcoin to help drive up the price of Bitcoin to artificially drive up the price of it's holdings, to maintain solvency.
The PM of Poland claims that Poland is "being attacked" following the ruling of it's supreme court that EU laws don't apply to it and the European Commission's threat to withhold EU subsidies.
The Visigrad countries, among which Poland want to have their cake and eat it to.
In the UK, The Netherlands and other parts of Europe the number of COVID19 cases is rising again.
The traditional flu season has arrived, but so far the hospitalization rate seems to be limited to people who reject vaccination.
Zillow, a realtor site in the US has stopped buying houses through it's Zillow Offers program, as a backlog has build up. Is this a indication that the housing market has turned? Zillow states that material shortages is making house-flipping more difficult.
China's banks are bracing for impact as the regulator has published a list of banks that are to big to fail, and forces banks to keep higher buffers.
They are not bracing against a the slowing down of the economy leading to more bad loans, but against the ripple effects of the real-estate crash. Expect unlimited liquidity from the central bank to the upper tier banks, and massive loans from the tier 4 banks to attempt to keep companies from falling over and disperse the pain over a long time frame. Visualize a supertanker hitting the shore.
China's economy is slowing down as it's Grey Rhino's are starting to hit, set off by the popping of the real-estate bubble.
The combination of power shortages due to it's boycott of Australia coal, moving supply chains due to wolf warrior rhetoric's and high labor costs, international trade barriers due to dumping, human rights and SOE misuse, cracking down on complete industries and sectors of the economic, have co-mingled with the big structural threats of aging, middle income trap, and Japan/S-Korea style interconnectedness (thanks to Guanxi / corruption). In a good scenario this will result in a Japanese style 'Lost Decade'.
Facebook is going full in on the idea of The Metaverse, a player one / second life kind of 3D environment.
It is not clear why The Metaverse should be successful while second life failed. Also: use of a federation protocol would be a requirement, but so far no proposals. Perhaps it needs a morale boost.
Spain's PM said that Spain will move to outlaw sex work.
Prostitution was decriminalized in 1995.
No significant news today
Another suicide attack by Daesh (ISIS) against Shiites in Afghan has claimed at least 37 deaths.
The mosque took the precaution of having armed guards, but the where shot before the attackers killed themselves. Your view on humanity is a bit weird if you think that the Taliban are a bunch of softy hippies.
China is upgrading military bases across the Taiwan strait as it prepares for war to occupy Taiwan.
The clock has started ticking.
Fights in Tigray have been escalating, with reports that Eritrea has joined forces with the Ethiopian governments ethnic coalition in fighting the Amhara.
When a country is not a country it's ethnic tribe against ethnic tribe (see also Lebanon, where people have been killed for protesting while being Shi'ite).
Facebook's troubles continue to mount as a previous whistle-blower has indicated she has shared potentially incriminating documents with the FBI.
Reports of engineers leaving for other company's because they are tired of having to explain why they work for "the evil empire" can't be good for morale either.
According to the IMF in it's Global Financial Stability Report, China has the means and tools in place to contain and manage a Evergrande invoked financial meltdown.
It seems that some people still haven't learned that China has a tendency to be "economical with the truth". Besides: the contagion has already spread beyond Evergrande.
The IMF calls upon China to save "individual firms (Evergrande)" that are perceived as "too big to fail", in a "earlier and clearly communicated intervention" to "minimize the risk of contagion".
Since its leadership think that it's a good idea to let the barbaric forces bleed, and vague communication is China's raison d'etre, it is unlikely this advice will be followed.
Water in the Gaza strip is undrinkable.
Even after processing it is to salty and polluted for even watering plants or use as showering water.
China announced that power prices will be left open to market forces, instead of being artificial frozen. Power companies had the choice of selling electricity and going bankrupt, or simply cutting power, so they did the last, and blamed conforming to government CO2 targets. Lying is a normal coping strategy in a country where honesty is considered inappropriate critique.
China's wolf-warrior diplomat in Sweden has not had his term extended.
It might be a indication that China is finally realizing that bluntly threatening countries on the other side of the world with violence if they don't do what you want is not a recipe for healthy relations.
The IMF warns against runaway inflation.
Growing pains and temporarily shortages will take at some time to subside, but none are structural, so unless real-estate and financial bubbles explode the world is on track for recovery, although weak countries did 2 steps backward and will only do one step forward.
Over 60% of inhabitants in developed countries are fully vaccinated, or just need to receive a second shot.
Unless Sinovac in completely useless, the world has largely left corona behind it, at least in economical sense.
Major flooding has destroyed more then 19000 houses and displaced large numbers of people in Shanxi province, China according to Xinhua, the state media.
Since China is notoriously "economical" with the truth", the numbers can be orders of a magnitude bigger. Local news reporting might explain why news services have recently been put on the negative list.
Modern Land, a Beijing based real-estate developer is joining Evergrande, Fantasia and numerous other real-estate developers in defaulting on it's bonds and other financial obligations.
It should be clear to anybody by now that developers in China have been insanely leveraged, and when payment problems arose years ago they kept loaning money from different sources to pay of other loans. There is simply no money left.
The suicide attack in Afghan which killed at least 47 Shia Muslims was done by a Uighur on behave of Daesh (ISIS).
It claims it is attacking the Taliban for their willingness to expels Uighur / yield to demands from China. Talks with the US in Doha have been described as constructive and realistic, but could lead eventually to splintering within the Taliban as zealots are not known for making compromises.
Coal supplies in Delhi, India's capitol are almost completely depleted.
Supplies are days away from being empty. Australian's coal that was kept in lingo by China has already been diverted, but it is to little to avoid a big crunch. Also note that shipping costs have exploded, and the US has a unloading / loading delay.
BoE is ready-ing minds for higher interest rates *now that it seems *inflation might be with us for longer than expected.
Higher interest rates will have a impact on capital costs, and therefore share prices, undercut the housing market and therefore housing prices and lead to a new period of stagflation in general.
Lebanon restored power on Sunday, after the army supplied 6000 liters of fuel to power-generators, although a fire at a Zahrani oil facility reduced that amount.
The drawing of the reserves leaves the country almost defenseless. If there was ever a sun-beaked country that would benefit from using solar power, instead of importing oil it would be Lebanon.
Lenovo has withdrew it's bid to be listed on the China, Shanghai stock exchange, which caused it's stock to drop by almost 1/5.
Comparisons with DiDi have been made, and as usual the lack of transparency feeds rumors and speculation. Lead among these is that the Red Princes want their cut.
China's so called negative list has been updated to include news services.
The current regime is doing its best to resemble North-Korea as quickly as possible.
Myanmar is further descending into civil war.
It's not just all the minority ethnic groups, but the majority groups as well.
The Chinese propaganda outlet GlobalTimes has dropped al pretensions that "unification" with Taiwan will be peaceful.
The statements are done in an article called: "US revelation of troops in Taiwan will only hasten cross-Straits war: Global Times editorial", and clearly indicates that "the critical moment [will come] earlier", "the mainland is completing its military preparations for attacking Taiwan", and "Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits". It is unlikely that statements of that magnitude in a official editorial are done without backing from the top.
Fantasia Holdings, a real-estate developer in China has defaulted on a bond.
It is likely that Evergrande is not the only developer to crash & burn as CFLD and Tahoe are also facing liquidity issues.
Worldwide food prices are the highest they have been since 2011 according to the FAO.
It is not yet clear if prices are transitionary or here to stay.
There is a zero-day bug in Apache, one of the most web-server in the world.
Expect insurance for company's against cyber-crime to go up.
The CIA has created a new China Mission Center.
Counter-terrorism is dead, big power competition is name of the game. Expect wages for non-Chinese Mandarin speakers to go up.
2 Houthi drone attacks managed to damage Saudi's King Abdullah airport.
10 people were wounded, but no fatalities were reported although the continuing Yemen conflict spells bad news for Saudi plans to develop tourism as part of efforts to diversify the economy.
Russia's dictator mocked the EU's energy transition from fossil and especially nuclear to renewables for being hasty and politically colored.
Russia seems to view climate change in the first place as an opportunity as the tree-line shifts further north.
Lebanon's power network went completely down after 2 power plants stopped operating due to fuel shortages.
Officials say that it will try to use the army's fuel reserves, but even then it is unlikely that operation will be resumed within days.
The conflict between the TPLF and government troops in Tigray, Ethiopia is continuing, with the government preparing for another surge into Tigray.
After having ruled the country for 30 years, it's difficult for the TPLF to accept others rule. Question is if Tigray manages to do a Eritrea and become independent.
China's dictator urged a peaceful takeover of Taiwan: "To achieve the reunification of the motherland by peaceful means is most in line with the overall interests of the Chinese nation, including our compatriots in Taiwan".
Xi's 3rd term will likely be completely focused on achieving 'reunification' of all Chinese, comparable to how Hitler urged reunification of all Germans, although the emphasis on peaceful is hopeful.
US military special forces are training Taiwan military forces in Taiwan.
This means US military boots on the ground, and a firm show of support towards Taiwan and against China. The slow adding of small steps mirror's China's salami slicing tactics.
Poland's supreme court ruled that EU law is incompatible with Polish law.
The illiberal Visigrad countries are moving toward the exit, or could be kicked out by the rest of the EU .
Meituan, a food delivery platform in China has been fined $533 million for cartel behavior.
It might just be that finding is the way the "Common Prosperity" policy will be implemented.
The WHO announced it has begun sending aid toward North-Korea to help combat COVID19.
The question is if North-Korea will accept it.
Land sales in China have collapsed, undercutting local government revenues.
Land sales revenue in china went from 50.7 Billion in 1998 to over 8.4 Trillion Yuan in 2020, and is a major source of financing for local government, besides illegal loans parked in SPV.
China continues to threaten Taiwan with military force, this time with 52 airplanes.
Meanwhile, the Taiwanese president claims that "a failure to defend Taiwan would not only be catastrophic for the Taiwanese, but it would overturn a security architecture that has allowed for peace and extraordinary economic development in the region for seven decades", which sounds dramatic, but isn't true, since the true bottleneck is not Taiwan but the strait of Malacca.
Facebook's outage has been resolved.
The outage not only shows how fragile a centralized infrastructure is, but in this case how limited the impact of Facebook is to society (not to big to fail). One could even argue that humanity was better of when Facebook was down.
A Facebook whistleblower claims that: "The version of Facebook that exists today is tearing our societies apart and causing ethnic violence around the world".
The 37-year-old data scientist has also worked for other companies including Google and Pintrest, and claims that Facebook is substantially worse. Time and time again reports show up that Facebook is consistently up-playing engagement - and therefore profit - at the expense of extreme polarization which leads to all kinds of Radicalization.
Health care workers warn that Afghan health care is facing an imminent collapse.
It seems like Afghan is about to join Yemen and Somalia in sliding back toward the glorious period of the middle ages.
China again urges the US to 'correct its mistakes' regarding it's behavior toward China if it want to restore military ties, which likely refers to the US request to restore the hot-line to prevent military escalation of conflicts.
Considering urgings earlier this likely entails the dropping of trade tariffs and support to Taiwan. It also seems to suggest that the resolving of the prosecution of the CFO of Huawei was not enough to restart dialog. China seems to seriously misread the intent of the US, which is not aimed at restoring ties from a position of weakness, but managing competition and blocking China's militarism.
China continues to threaten Taiwan with military force, this time with a record wave of 38 planes.
The GlobalTimes claims that : 'Once the order to attack is given, the PLA's pilots will fight as "experienced veterans."' and 'They have thus turned themselves into a block that the Chinese mainland must get rid of strategically and an evil force the mainland must crush.' which seems to suggest that a course of action has already be decided, and the only discussion is about the 'when'.
"I don't believe the prime minister is responsible for what's in the shops" was the reply of the prime minister of the UK in reply to questions about heavy shortages of fuel, butchers, and in general the breakdown of supply chains in the UK following Brexit.
It seems unlikely that Britain's famous reasonable pragmatism has found a home is this administration. The big question now is how bad things have to become for parliament to step in.
The government of Algeria recalled its ambassador from France and banned French military planes from flyovers after France restricted visa requirements and undiplomatic remarks from president Macron.
"was sich liebt, das neckt sich"
A new leak called 'The Pandora Papers' of trust fund owners has been made public, showing ownership of assets belonging to politicians in deeply corrupt countries.
Since the first big leaks had no significant impact, it is unlikely that this new leak will have lasting consequences.
The farmer protests in India that have been going on for more then 10 months have escalated after a car from a the minister of Home Affairs, ran over protesting farmers.
4 farmers died on the spot, and 4 people in the car of whom 3 were BJP members were lynched by the enraged farmers. A journalist also died under unknown circumstances. The protest are against liberalizations of agricultural markets that undermines the mandi system of minimal prices and guaranteed buyers.
Russia deprives Ukraine from gas transit revenues.
Ukraine call's for sanctions amid claims that Russia is using pipeline tactics as a strategic weapon.
China continues to threaten Taiwan with military force.
This time with 25 military jets, which it hopes will scare Taiwan so much it decides to give up free speech, a higher standard of living, basic human rights, freedom of cultural expression and democracy.
Molnupiravir,a game-changing antiviral drug appears to be effective and safe in clinical trials against COVID19.
The drug creates mutations in RNA based virii, that hinder it's propagation, but could also speed up it's evolution. It could also potentially create birth defects, although no indications have been found so far. It could work against all known RNA viruses, including rabies, Hepatitis C, Yellow fever, Dengue, West Nile, Tick-borne encephalitis, Zika, etc.
Ho Chi Minh City, the capitol of Vietnam is no longer under a complete COVID19 lockdown.
The period in which people were not even allowed to leave their house lasted 3 months, but a more limited lockdown stays in place, as the Delta variant has become endemic.
"Bandits" have abducted 24 people and killed 21 people in Northern Nigeria.
These attacks have become common, and have to been seen as part of a (economic) struggle between Islamic Fulani herders and Christian Hausa farmers.
Venezuela drops 6 zero's from it's currency.
According to the IMF its inflation rate *is approximate *5500% and one loaf of bread costs 7 million bolivar.
More shortages have emerged in the UK as compounding effects of Brexit are battering the country.
Besides lorry drivers, and butchers compounding effects have led to breaking of supply chains and fuel hoarding as the British government still seems to think that problems will magically go away if they just keep positive and do nothing.
North Korea, the most miserable place on earth, and shiny example for Xi Jinping, is launching more rockets, while saying it want's to talk while rebuffing offers from the US to do just that.
As usual this means that it wants to be bribed with aid to feed its starving population into starting meaningless talks that end nowhere and serve no other purpose than extracting concessions.
There was no consequential news today.
An explosion has hit a condo building in Göteborg, Sweden at 5 o clock in the morning.
25 people were injured in the blast.
Android will soon get a confidential picture and video folder, in which to store to nude images, and other embarrassing content.
Malware that explicitly targets this folder can be expected soon thereafter.
Microsoft auto-discover for email and other services incorrectly tries to fetch settings from autodiscover.com, autodiscover.nl, autodiscover.de, etc.
This could be used to hack credentials from ao.. email-accounts, which is why Microsoft is no trying to mitigate by buying these domains.
The airport of La Palma, Canary islands, Spain, has closed after renewed volcanic eruptions.
So far no people have been killed or seriously injured.
More zero day exploits (66) have been found this year then ever before, and the year is not even over.
Reduction of attack surfaces and information segmentation are going to be the new trend.
16 provinces in China have instituted power rationing measures as the electrical grid is buckling under the load due to a shortage of coal.
This problem might be related to the sanctions China put upon coal imports from Australia for petty grievances.
All cryptocurrency transactions in China have been banned.
Crypto currencies, offshore gambling, buying foreign companies/real-estate, cryptocurrencies and listing companies on international stock exchanges are all ways to circumvent capital controls in China
Panic buying in the UK is leading to extra fuel shortages while it has a shortage of a hundred thousand truck drivers because of Brexit.
The government has announced that it will allow ten thousand visa for a period of 3 months to help the shortage, and that the military will train new truck drivers which has been described as too little, too late.
Sudan claims it has repelled Ethiopian troops that it claims had invaded Sudan
More clashes have been deported in the last months in the area, although independent verification is difficult.
China's big internet company's pledge support for Xi's "common prosperity" targets at the WIC in Wuzhen
Since the CCP/state is best capable of determining and addressing the needs of the people according to CCP logic, this seems to be the equivalent of sheep cheering/pledging to be shoarma.
Turkey is threatening to buy more Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.
Turkey was banned from buying F-35 because of earlier purchases, and has created tensions with other NATO partners.
An earthquake has hit close to Manila, the capital of the Philippines.
Casualties are likely minimal since the Philippines is used to earthquakes.
The $305 Billion indebted Chinese developer Evergrande has missed its latest bond pay-out, and likely has no cash reserves.
China's government has given local governments orders to prepare for a crash, since real-estate is responsible for 30% of it's GDP.
Almost 1/3 of all UK petrol stations of BP have run out of some fuel, such as diesel.
The UK 's government announced that it will give out temporary visa's for lorry drivers and butchers, although it is unlikely this will completely fix the shortages caused by Brexit.
The Taliban hang bodies of executed criminals in Herat, the capital of Afghanistan.
A spokesman for the USA government earlier called chopping of hands for petty crimes a violation of human rights.
The "red princess" and CFO of Huawei returned home to China.
A deal was made with the prosecution of the USA in which lying was admitted, but not guild. The Canadians that were taken hostage by China in retaliation were also released.
Quad countries re-commit to keeping the SCS "free".
China's mouthpiece GlobalTimes, claimed the efforts are doomed to fail, because the USA is falling apart.
Another suicide attack took place in Mogadishu, the capital of the failed state of Somalia.
The attack that killed at least 7 people was claimed by Al-Shabab, a Al-Qaeda allied group.
Ukraine is suffering from severe electricity shortages due to Russian attacks on more than 1/3 of it's power-plants.
This also impacts city heating and water pump.s
Demonstrators in Chad went onto the streets, demanding the transition to democratic rule that was promised by the military coup-leaders two years ago.
The area around Lake Chad also suffers from floods which affected more then a million people in the country.
The Prime Minister of Britain, Liz Truss has resigned, becoming the shortest-serving PM in British history.
After the loss of confidence of 4 senior ministers and a disastrous performance defending her policies in parliament, she decided to was not fit out for the job. Despite her lack of leadership qualities at least she has the gift of introspection and self-analysis, which is more then can be said of her predecessor.
Iran has announced it will sell more drones and rockets to Russia, and train more Russian troops.
Meanwhile, Russia has stepped up evacuation from Kherson and announced the introduction of martial law in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine.
no significant news
no significant news
Belarusian newspaper Nasha Niva reports that Belarus is starting a limited covert mobilization.
It is suppose to be called a "combat capability check", and is only calling up less then 5000 soldiers. This after Russian soldiers have arrived in Belarus who will become part of mixed battalions.
The Ukranian offensive at Beryslav in the Kherson region continues, while Russia announced it will discontinue blowing up Ukranian power-plants.
Despite months of fighting and trying the Russian army is not about to capture the Donetsk city of Bakhmut. English Intelligence claims that Russia is very low on missiles and it has been using anti-air craft missiles as anti-ground rockets for quite some time now. GlobalDefenseCorp claimed in 2020 that Russia only had 2685 active tanks - probably not counting rusting strategic Russian tank reserves - of which Ukraine claims it took out more than 2500 tanks. Ukraine also took out around 65.000 Russian army soldiers, but the fact that the US includes medical aid in its latest military supply, suggests that Ukraine took it's fair share of casualties. The Russian iStories project claims that the number of killed, missing or invalid Russian soldiers is even higher, at around 90.000.
Saudi-Arabia donated 400 million dollar to Ukraine to take away the impression it supports OPEC+ member Russia while adversary Iran denied it send drones to Russia and trained it troops.
The Iranian suicide drones are one of the few effective weapons Russia has left since they can overwhelm air defenses. Iran's lies in this regard leaves one doubting how serious it is in its claims that it is not trying to make a nuclear bomb.
Nigeria and Chad are effected by heavy floods.
An estimated 1.4 million people have been displaced by the flood in Nigeria. The higher than normal floods are most likely caused by climate change.
China is holding its breath while the CCP is in it's 5 year congress.
Due to the fear to be severely punished if one does anything that could in any way disturb the image that everything is fine in China, every politician and state worker "lie's flat" for the last few months, while even people living in Beijing were not allowed to return to the capitol for fear of an embarrassing COVID19 lockdown. Beijing already let know that after the congress it will keep the draconian COVID19 policies in place, which have effectively replaced the Hukou system. After the congress Xi will very continue his policies of personal loyalty, Maoist paternalism, and threatening the neighbors further damaging China's economy and undermining security in the region.
Russia is making preparations for life after the war in Ukraine.
Putin has again offered Germany to open the remaining North Stream II gas link, while also offering Turkey more gas to export to Europe. It indicates that Russia is not planning to take steps that are impossible to return from, such as the use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
Russia has started to evacuate Russian civilians from Kherson as Ukraine is preparing for another breakthrough.
Russia in turn continues to target power plants, while Ukraine is set to receive air defense systems from the West to protect its airspace from Russian rockets and drones. Belarus dictator Belarus is continuing to take tiny steps towards Russia in rhetoric, without participating in Russia's war.
Protests in Iran against the undemocratic regime continue.
According to Iran Human Right (IHRNGO) at least 201 people have been killed by the police. Protests are mostly held in the Kurdish dominated North and the capitol Teheran.
British minister of finance Kwarteng has been fired.
He has been sacrificed as a scapegoat for the series of bad decisions that prime minister Truss promised to implement as part of her campaign.
no news
no significant news
NASA's Dart mission was successful.
It managed to change the course of an asteroid. It changed the orbit of the asteroid around a larger object from 11 hour 55 minute to 11 hours and 23 minutes, which is proof it can change the course of an asteroid.
The Bank of England again stepped in to buy government bonds.
This after interest rates again spiked triggering the risk of a fire sale.
Russia's dictator Putin launched rockets at civilian targets in retaliation for Ukraine's strike on the Krim bridge.
With many other strikes the idea could be maintained that Russian rockets are simply unreliable or not good at aiming, but in this case it is undeniably retaliation against the very same people Putin claims to want to safe from "Neo-Nazis".
France is dealing with fuel shortages due to a strike.
Striking is the national pastime of France.
Russia got the bridge connecting the Krim and Russia operational again.
The train track was not damaged, just the cars, which it has moved out, and the car deck will be used intermittently for traffic towards the Krim and away from it.
Ukraine sabotaged the Russian build bridge connecting the Krim to Russia.
Indications are that a truck loaded with explosives exploded on the bridge, taking down one part of the road, but not the other. The rail-road on the bridge is also damaged due to train wagons on it loaded with fuel that burned down after catching fire. The part of the bridge that is open is now only seeing traffic of people leaving the Krim, fearing the war will reach the Krim. Authorities have imposed rations on grocery sales due to people stockpiling.
Haiti has asked for international intervention to secure its port and capitol.
Gangs and warlords have effectively taken over the country and the capitol, leading to (fuel) shortages and the looting of warehouses.
US president Biden is warning that the World is uncomfortably close to nuclear war.
He specifically noted that Russian dictator Putin does not have a off ramp to prevent escalation.
The war in Ukraine continues, with Ukraine reclaiming big parts of the Kherson area, while Russian forces withdraw toward Kherson city.
Russia has started to evacuate children in Kherson, while Ukraine took Tryfonivka. The Russian installed governor of Kherson criticized the Russian military, saying that the defense minister should take consequences and shoot himself. Potential conscripts have been voting with their feet, and left Russia in large numbers, with Russian media estimating that the number could be as high as 700.000 persons.
North Korea is continuing to show threatening behavior towards South Korea.
After yesterdays missile launches it flew 4 bombers and 8 fighter planes close to North Korea. North Korea is in a very bad state right now, and is responding fiercely to US and South Korea exercises. It is unlikely that North Korea has the intent or the capacity to launch a military offensive.
Europe is facing possible blackouts in the end of the winter.
Germany warned that if current gas use is not reduced it would face shortages, while the UK warned it could face rolling blackouts if it can't import electricity from Europe.
Protests in Iran continue.
They have not only spread to deeper layers in society, but have morphed into protests against the regime, threatening to lead to a revolution.
OPEC+ has announced it will try to limit oil production.
This is not due to support from the Middle East for Russian's war of conquest, but due to the fact that the oil price had fallen, in response to less demand for oil in China because of its recession.
Russia has upped the war rhetoric, telling the US it considers it a "participant of the conflict"..
It wants the US to stop weapon supplies to Ukraine, as it is continuing to loose ground in Ukraine, including the strongholds of Dudchany and Davydiv Brid in the Kherson region. Russia claimed it will reconquer areas in Ukraine that it wants to annex,
The forgotten humanitarian disaster is getting worse in Pakistan as illnesses are spreading and hospitals are overloaded.
The UN has asked its members to give 816 million dollar for immediate relief aid, but the UN coordinator in Pakistan, claims this is "absolutely not enough", and warning that Pakistan if on the verge of "entering a second wave of death and destruction". The US just provided $625 Million in additional military aid to Ukraine, while Pakistan's iron friend China is nowhere to be seen. Even Saudi Arabia is only sending very limited aid after it has bailed out its economy for billions of dollars for years.
It is still unknown who blew up the North Stream 1 and 2 pipe lines.
Russia's press agency TASS emphasized that Europe ( Germany ) would have to choose between [using] the only remaining thread of Nord Stream 2, or abandon Nord Stream 2 and pay higher prices for US LNG, which would mean certifying the Nord Stream 2 pipe-line, a move that has long been delayed by Germany because of geopolitical worries. The fact that one strand of Nord Stream 2 remains gives some credibility to Western assertions that Russia blew up the pipe-lines.
The war in Ukraine has escalated, with Belarus's dictator Lukashenko claiming it has joined Russia in the war on Ukraine
The dictator declared he joined the "special military operation" in Ukraine, asserting that he wanted to protect Belarus from Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, despite the fact that those countries do not have troops in Ukraine, but are only helping Ukraine with weapons and money. According to Belarus state media he said that "As far as our participation in the special military operation in Ukraine is concerned, we are participating in it. We don't hide it. But we don't kill anyone. We don't send our military personnel anywhere". This while Ukraine drove Russian troops out of 2 more Kharkiv area towns and is gaining ground fast in the Kherson area. It is unclear if Belarus will eventually sent troops in Ukraine or is simply trying to appease Putin.
An Italian newspaper claims that NATO is following a submarine which might test the nuclear Poseidon torpedo in the Arctic.
The US furthermore claims that rumors reported by a British newspaper of a Russian train carrying nuclear weapons toward Ukraine are most likely false. The UK warned Russia that the use of nuclear weapons would solicit a response. The threat of nuclear weapons by Russia is becoming a closer possibility now that Russia is facing many difficulties on the battle-field in its invasion of Ukraine. Former US general David Petraeus claimed that NATO would respond to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia by joining the war in Ukraine against Russian troops in Ukraine and the Russian navy in the Black Sea, which would mean a direct war with Russia.
Protests in Iran against the religious morality police and the regime continue.
While the regime continues to blame : Israel, the US, Norway and other enemies of Iran.
Ukraine regained more ground in its war with Russia.
It regained Borova, and Shyikivka in the East and Myrolyubivka, Arkhanhelske, Osokorivka, Mykhailivka, Khreschenikvka and Zoloto Balka in the Kherson area while getting close to Dudchany, making it likely that it will be able to rout or encircle a very large number of very badly supplied Russian troops in the Kherson area. Russia's dictator Putin has taken personal control of the situation in Kherson, and denied pleas from his commanders in the field to withdraw from Kherson.
Turkey's inflation has reached 83%.
While independent experts estimate it is actually 186%. The Turkish Lire dropped to its lowest value in at least the last 10 years.
Europe's political scene is experiencing a radical swing toward radical right-wing parties.
After Sweden and Italy, Bulgaria has now likely gained a right wing majority, while Hungary's Orban is openly calling to loosen sanctions on Russia, and Poland is trying to pick a fight with Germany over war reparations that were already settled in 1953. Higher household costs due to sanctions of Russia are likely the cause of the discontent among voters.
no significant news
Protest in Iran are ongoing.
Iran is still dealing with protests due to its draconian chastity laws, which have turned into general protests against the regime. The regime blames the protest on foreign agents, and assumes that demonstrations have been instigated since it is supporting Russia with drones in its war against Ukraine. A suspicion that has been further raised by new announced sanctions by the US for Iran's unwillingness to return to the nuclear deal with the US. Iran has fired missiles in Kurdish areas in Iraq which its blames as accomplices of the US.
Protest in Cuba are continuing.
Protests started due to power outages which keep on returning. The main cause is damage caused by hurricane Ian to the neglected power grid on the 28th.
Russia's dictator Putin has confirmed that he has lost his mind, with yesterday's speech which can best be described as the drunken, paranoid ramblings of a broken-down fascist, except that the person writing and delivering it was not drunk, nor broken down, and has his hand on the button of the largest nuclear arsenal of the world.
Ukraine announced it will apply for fast track NATO membership, and asked for security guarantees in the meantime, which - if approved - would mean that NATO troops would fight in Ukraine, and Ukraine would be included in the US nuclear umbrella. It is very unlikely that existing members would allow Ukraine to become a member while there is no peace agreement with Russia.
Ukraine's army is making progress in the Donbas region.
It retook Lyman after it took Drobysheve. Lyman is one of the key railway hubs required for Russian logistics in Donetsk, and as such essential for Russia to keep.
North Korea fired 2 more missiles, upping the count to 4 this week.
North Korea feels the need to do the bombastic non-sense as a defensive move in response to new US and South Korea military exercises and the visit of the US vice president. It would have done a nuclear test, but it is waiting with that since it does not want to risk upsetting China in the run-up to the sensitive Communist Party Congress this month.
An army captain called Ibrahim Traore in Burkina Faso has overthrown the last coup-leader.
He claims he did it because of the last dictators inability to defeat Al-Qaeda / IS backed Islamic rebels, though since exactly the same excuse was used by the last coup-leader, it is also possible that this is another case of "It is our time to eat". Similar coups have taken place the last couple of years in Chad, Mali (2x), Sudan and Guinea.
Burkina Faso is in the middle of another coup.
The last one was earlier this year on 23 January 2022.
The EU is reeling from record inflation as high as 10% on a year to year basis.
COVID19 induced supply chain problems have all mellowed out, but high energy prices due to mutual sanctions and other fallouts due to the war in Ukraine are taking their toll. Inflation has spread through to other prices, making it likely that inflation will remain elevated even after energy prices fall. Further rate hikes by the ECB are almost certain to follow, which will undermine economic growth, lower house prices and zombie companies going bankrupt.
Russia will formally declare today that the parts it has occupied in Ukraine are Russian territory.
It also stated several times it will use nuclear weapons to defend them if Ukraine tries to take them back. Ukraine and the rest of the world refuses to recognize Russia's make-belief. Ukraine continues to make small progress in the Donbas region around Lyman, and continues to bleed the Russian army in Kherson were it is using heavy weapons to grind the Russian army that is not allowed by Putin to retreat to positions that can actually be supplied and effectively defended. If current trends continue, then the Kherson trap will eat all the untrained conscripts that Putin keeps feeding into it.
Russia has officially barred people of conscription age from leaving the country.
This after a exodus of people who feared to be drafted crossed into neighboring countries. Georgia alone received about 10000 refugees a day. First reports indicate that conscripts are already being sent to the front, equipped with nothing but pessimism since even the most basic equipment such as body armor is unavailable.
BoE, the English central bank has restarted Quantitive Easing in an effort to stabilize the market of state bonds.
QE - also known as money printing - to buy up state debt, was required after investors dumped English state debt en mass, which drove up interest rates and triggered margin calls for pensions funds, which could have bankrupted them. The financial panic was caused by the budget plan from new Prime Minster Truss which promises to give huge amounts of money to the wealthy, to be payed for by hugely inflating the state debt. The IMF has since criticized the PM's plans as deeply flawed. Higher interest rates needed to defend the Pound are projected to cause the English housing market to cool, which could set off a recession in the UK.
North Korean ordered that Pyongyang residents will be provided with food for 20 days.
This years harvest is reported to be very bad and People in Pyongyang are "first class" citizen. The providing of food could be for the upcoming Party Foundation Day holiday, on October the 10th, or to prevent problems if another COVID19 lockdown has to be announced, since the party also ordered that pharmacies have to be build in every city and county after the disastrous lack of medicine and facilities during the last lockdown.
A unverified report indicates that Belarusian railway is improving its infrastructure in order to transport more military echelons.
It might indicate that Putin is trying to go all out after Kiev despite the earlier failures, or that Belarus will join the war.
According to Russia soviet propaganda number of people in the regions it occupied want to join Russia, in another cynical display from Moscow of not even bothering to make up believable lies.
97% or higher are the fake votes in favor of joining Russia, including in the regions were people were demonstrating en mass against the Russian occupation at the start of the war.
The risks of a nuclear war started by Russia have gone up considerably.
All the cards Putin could play - a quick Blitzkrieg in Ukraine, a sustained war of attrition, a shutoff of gas exports to Europe, a massive mobilization, and nuclear escalation - have been played or have backfired. It is unlikely that the deeply unpopular draft will fundamentally change the outcome of the conflict, since lightly armed, unmotivated and untrained troops will not bring big changes on the ground, especially if not supported by modern and heavy weapons, although quantity is a quality on its own. Unless China decides to come to Russia's aid - which seems unlikely considering their distancing and pressure to end the conflict - Putin will have only one card left to play, which is to utilize nuclear weapons. Considering that Putin and Russia have a tendency to "escalate to de-escalate", it seems likely that Russia will at least demonstrate that they have nuclear capabilities.
In Iran the unrest started by the killing of an woman arrested for showing more hair than allowed continues.
The protests have increased, with a announced national strike by teachers and students. Iran blames the UK, US and Norway for the unrest.
The exodus of draft dodgers in Russia has increased.
Meduza reports that the FSB says that 261.000 persons have fled. Kazakhstan alone clocked almost 100.000 people leaving Russia to prevent being used as cannon fodder in Russia's imperial war against Ukraine, while Georgia has at recorded at least 40.000 refugees. The FSB has sent armored vehicles to the border with Georgia to stop reservists from doing a massive run on checkpoints, and has begun checking people on flights out of the country against draft lists. It has also announced that anybody trying to leave the country of "mobilization age" will be immediately drafted. No matter the outcome of the war, this brain drain of the best and brightest that Russia has will permanently damage it, but restricting the outflow could seriously backfire for Putin since these people might otherwise start a revolution inside Russia.
NASA's Dart probe has successfully hit an asteroid, proofing the concept of intercepting asteroid that could eliminate all life on Earth.
It remains to be seen if the course of the asteroid was altered enough to change its trajectory, but it is a successful demonstration of a Planetary defense against asteroids.
A new gas pipeline, the Baltic Pipeline has gone online, while both the Nord Stream gas pipeline, and the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline have broken down.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline never went online, and the Nord Stream line stopped working due to Russia's gas blockade, but both seems to have been sabotaged by an unknown actor, due to the unlikely nature of the breaks in the pipe-lines. The environmental impact is low, although the released gas which was still in the pipeline acts as a greenhouse gas, but natural gas - unlike CO2 - breaks down naturally within years. The new Baltic Pipeline caries gas from Norway via Denmark towards Poland and other Eastern Europe countries. NATO member Norway has sent out a warning over unidentified drones seen flying near its offshore oil and gas platforms, which could be Russian. Sweden and Denmark report that they detected underwater explosions at locations of the pipeline with seismographs. According to unhinged website Zero-Hedge Russia is trying to get OPEC to agree to a cut in the output of oil.
The British Pound sunk to historic lows, due to combined pressure from fear of escalation in Ukraine and macro-economic policy.
The drop is partly the result of new Prime Minister Liz Truss's deeply incorrect decision to lower taxes for companies, which will do nothing to help maintain spending power for low income people being squeezed by inflation, or help grow the economy. Growing the economy would be the wrong strategy nonetheless, since interest rates are being raised to cool the economy, in order to tame inflation. Opportunistic dogmatic thinking - trickle down theory - is leading to a handout for those who don't need it, while the British government should keep its powder dry for when inflation subsides, or to invest in measures that reduces the price pressure, such as energy savings to cut power bills.
EU unity is starting to fracture over the war in Ukraine.
The EU is dealing with more calls to drop Russian sanctions from Hungary's Orban, is divided over visa for (draft dodging) Russians, and will be dealing with a new Italian government that is more Putin friendly, as pressure from the economic fallout is increasing.
Russian unity is starting to fracture over the war in Ukraine.
Poor Russian regions such as Dagestan are experiencing demonstrations, attacks on recruitment offices and unrest due to the draft, while historical allies such as Serbia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia announced that they will not recognize the now occupied parts of Ukraine as Russian. Fellow dictatorship Belarus claims it "has not decided yet". The ex-president of Mongolia called upon Putin to end the war and "stop his senseless killings and destruction", while wearing a Ukranian ribbon, and Kazakhstan - who at the start of the war refused to support Russia with troops - has asked and received support from China to "safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity", since it is afraid it will be next, especially after Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Kazakhstan is - like Ukraine - a "artificial state", "committing genocide" on Russians. The latest UN vote showed it only has Belarus, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Nicaragua and Syria left as international allies.
The US warned Russia against using strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
The US warned of "catastrophic consequences" if Moscow used nuclear weapons to try to consolidate its military gains in Ukraine. Considering other explicit urgent warnings by the US not to resort to using nuclear weapons, and considering the intelligence the US had about Russia's invasion, months before it happened, it is very well possible that the US knows about specific plans inside of the Kremlin to do exactly that. It is likely that the US has specific plans on how to counter this - so far unlikely - scenario, including providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
According to a source of Meduza, men of mobilization age will no longer be allowed to leave Russia starting Tuesday.
At Tuesday the results of the fake referenda will be announced, which will show a that a overwhelming majority of people in Ukrainian occupied parts actually want nothing more than to be Russian. Some European politicians - including the Ukranian president - have called upon people being drafted to fight the regime in Russia.
North Korea test-fired a nuclear capable missile into the Sea of Japan.
South Korea called it a "grave provocation", but escalation is unlikely. It is so far unknown if North Korea will also perform new nuclear tests in the near future. North Korea as usual blames the annual defensive exercises by South Korea and the US in extremely colorful words.
Anecdotal evidence suggest that the number of people being called up for the newly announced draft in Russia is much higher than the official 300.000, and maybe even higher than the 1,2 million as reported by Meduza. While Chechen psychopath strong-man Ramzan Kadyrov announced that Czechia simply wont introduce a draft, claiming it already does enough.
The NY Times reports that Putin has taken to leading the war into his own hands, including rejecting requests from officers on the ground to retreat from Kherson, which is being used as a dead-trap by Ukraine.
South Korea military has detected signs that North Korea is about to test another nuleair weapon.
The US has sent aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan to South Korea to deter North Korea. The US has earlier threatened that a new nuclear test by North Korea could have "consequences".
Singapore has overtaken Hong Kong as financial center.
Xi's policies including the NSL, and COVID-Zero have lead to an exodus of foreign financial firms. Hong Kong used to provide the rest of the world a safe harbor from which to trade and deal with China without rampant corruption, arbitrary dictatorial detention, thin skinned temper tantrums and with reliable rule of law. Now that Hong Kong has lost this it is no longer a prime location.
The SCMP reports that 462 out of Hong Kong’s 2,500 listed companies (~ 20% ) are a Zombie company.
Their earnings are so low, that they can even pay interest on their official loans, let alone pay back any of the loans. They are already dead, but just don't know it yet. The situation in the rest of China is probably equivalent of worse. The raising of the interest rates worldwide may do the same to other companies around the world that have taken on a high amount of debt, as reported months earlier by The Economist.
According to a source of Novaya Gazeta, the SCO has put pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
The source claims that, at the last conference in Samarkand, Turkey, Kazakhstan, India and China made it clear to Putin that "the war needs to end" . Reportedly Putin acted very aggressively to this, confirming that its Putin's personal drive that has started this tragedy.
No help is coming for flood battered Pakistan.
Cholera, dysentery, malaria, Dengue and other water borne diseases are spreading like wildfire in Pakistan's flooded areas, while its underfunded health care system has been partly destroyed. Very little aid money has been promised, and close to no reconstruction money, while the country is already bankrupt. It has not asked for aid from its neighbor India, and India has not offered any.
China has called for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
It indicates that Xi is getting nervous about unintended consequences of what was suppose to be painless "re-balancing of power", in which Russia and China would "take back what is their "legitimate interest" as big power players from a "weakened US".
Demonstrators in Iran are protesting against the religious police, after a woman died due to police brutality after she was arrested for allowing some hair to be visible.
Street rallies have spread to 15 cities, while the police has responded with force, killing at least 30 people and wounding at least 450. The police reported that at least 5 agents have been killed, and 176 wounded by demonstrators, while 2 police stations have been set on fire. The regime has disconnected internet access. The country's supreme leader claimed the demonstrators are mislead by "Western Powers", who are somehow responsible for this.
More than 1400 people in 38 Russian cities were arrested when they demonstrated against the general mobilization orders that were announced yesterday.
Some were handed mobilization orders to be sent to the Ukranian front. Long lines have formed at the Russian borders of people fleeing the country to avoid being drafted. According to Putin "only" 300000 soldiers will be drafted, but according to Novaya Gazeta, a classified 7th paragraph of Putin's decree states that the number of mobilized will be 1 million. Germany has announced it will give asylum to any Russian draft dodger. Tatarstan, a republic inside Russia has already banned residents in the military reserves from leaving their district. (Nationalized) companies have been made responsible for ensuring that their employees show up at draft offices. The DUMA has let know that it's members would not be exempted from the draft.
Russia stated that it intends to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine tries to take back the territory that Russia has annexed.
It is unlikely that Ukraine will be persuaded by more threats from Russia. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a surprising prisoner exchange, which led to the release of the infamous Azov Brigade, the very same people accused by Moscow propaganda of being Nazi, cannibalistic war criminals, showing once again that the Kremlin knows very well the extend of her own lies. It did of course lead to outrage among the far-right war mongers in Russia.
Turkish has announced that it will apply for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) (SCO).
Crazy uncle Erdogan is always bartering all sides to get the best possible deal, not believing in anything but his own country's narrow self-interest. Turkey would have been kicked out of NATO - especially since Turkey keeps on threatening fellow member Greece - were it not for Turkey's control of the Bosporus, and therefore the Black Sea.
Vladimir Putin announced a military mobilization in Russia, putting the country's people and economy on a wartime footing as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine continues to fail.
Vesna, a youth democratic movement has announced nationwide demonstrations, and called upon reservists to refuse to participate in Russia's war, while airline tickets out of the country sold out in record time. The bluster coming from Putin is geared towards keeping the limited gains Russia has gained so far. By formally annexing Ukrainian territories, Putin is giving himself a pretext to use nuclear weapons, and for full mobilization. Russia has its best troops stuck in Kherson, slowly being hammered away, with lack of food, water and ammunition.
More than 2.7 million people in Pakistan have been treated for water-borne diseases at makeshift or mobile hospitals since July 1, with 72,000 people on Monday alone, as it struggles with the fall-out of the massive floods.
Three other provinces have also reported thousands of disease cases.
Russia is starting to prepare for full mobilization, with the DUMA processing a law which will criminalize refusal to fight with 10 years of imprisonment into a Siberian penal colony.
Referendum will be organized in Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk so that "After their implementation and the acceptance of new territories into Russia, the geopolitical transformation in the world will become irreversible. Encroachment on the territory of Russia is a crime, the commission of which allows you to use all the forces of self-defense.", as stated by Medvedev. Also known as saying that your little brother is the one showing aggression and attacking you, since you just declared that the toys you stole from him are now yours. "snatch squads" have already started detaining men on the street to try to draft them into the army in Luhansk. Russia also declared that the development of its partnership with China is its "unconditional priority".
Turkey is continuing to try to milk its right to veto accession of Sweden and Finland to the NATO.
Erdogan, Turkey's thin skinned, crazy uncle semi-dictator, insists that terrorists have infiltrated Sweden parliament, and that those "terrorist" are even doing things such as demonstrating and shouting slogans, which Sweden condones because it uses "excuses", such as "the constitution. And, as the reigning principle of the constitution, they value the freedom of expression.". Erdogan made it quite clear that according to him "terrorists" don't have to right of freedom of expression.
According to British newspaper The Telegraph China has set up 110 police stations in other countries - including the UK - it euphemistically calls overseas service stations.
The police stations are supposedly hidden in Chinese restaurants and other benign locations, and are used to track down dissidents and other enemies of the regime in Beijing. The Telegraph has not presented any concrete evidence for this serious claim.
Russia continues to target civilian infrastructure such as power plants, water reservoirs, and even a nuclear power plant in Pivdennoukrainsk, close to Mykolaiv in its war with Ukraine, and is trying to gain more ground around Bakhmut.
It is likely that Russia has very limited information on Ukranian troop bases and ammunition stores, while the locations of power plants and other infrastructure is known and fixed. Ukraine has secured a beachhead on the eastern side of the Oskil river, and has reconquered Bilohorivka and Yarova, towns in Luhansk and Donetsk, in the Donbas region. At the front lines around Kherson, Russia no longer seems to have a functional air force, while Ukraine is flying unchallenged bombing sorties.
US President Biden again stated that the US would defend Taiwan military if it were attacked by China. China responded by stating that it won't allow the US to "threaten it", which overlooks the fact that it is China threatening Taiwan, not the other way around.
Since China is making no secret of its intention to invade Taiwan, the US has decided to do away with the face-saving strategic ambiguity politeness that is willfully being misinterpreted inside China as indication that the US would not step up. The thinking in China is that they would not risk a big military confrontation if there were no big gains in it, and that therefore the US can't be serious about defending Taiwan, but is simply using Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract the highest possible price from China, which says more about their mind-set than that of the US. The idea that ideals are worth dying for is alien to the CCP, and the belief that the democracies are a decadent, decisiveness paper tiger, etc are common in the Chinese propaganda, despite being proven wrong in every defensive war between a democracy and a dictatorship.
Tunisia and Egypt are among the latest countries talking with the IMF for support. The list has become so large that it almost makes sense to list the countries not into trouble.
The list of countries that have or need IMF support is now: Afghanistan, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Togo, Yemen, Pakistan, North-Korea, Eritrea, Sri Lanka, Sudan, South Sudan, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Ukraine, Syria, Zimbabwe, DR Congo, Venezuela, Iran, Ghana, Argentina, Tunisia, Egypt and Zambia. Developed countries with debt higher than 100% of GDP are Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Belgium, France, Japan, The US, Canada, The UK, Singapore. Underdeveloped countries with debt higher than 100% of GDP are Cape Verde, Suriname, Barbados, Maldives, Angola, Belize, Bhutan, Bahrain, Aruba, Jamaica, Dominica, Montenegro, Antigua and Barbuda. European countries without problematic debt are Croatia, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Iceland, Israel, Albania, Finland, Germany, Slovak Republic, Armenia, Serbia, Ireland, Poland, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Lithuania, Romania, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, North Macedonia, Moldova, Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, and Belarus. Developed countries with healthy finances are New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, South-Korea while oil countries UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are doing fine. China's (local) public sector governments and its SOE's together have huge debts larger than 200% of GDP. Vietnam, India and Indonesia are doing fine so far, due to supply chain diversification away from China.
The EU has recommended cutting Hungary from receiving more EU funds.
This after a external commission confirmed what has been known for almost a decade: Orban, Hungary's leader has transformed Hungary into a Illiberal democracy - a term he created - without freedom of press, independent judiciary, and free elections. In practice it functions as a kleptocracy, since there is no longer a real democracy.
Members of the SCO are meeting in Uzbekistan, were a new SCO member and new SCO Dialog partners were announced.
Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, The Maldives, Myanmar and The United Arab Emirates are new dialog partners, while Iran will become a full member. Iran made clear that for it the main purpose of the SCO is to counter US sanctions. China and India expressed "questions and concerns" about fellow member Russia's war in Ukraine.
Reports from Lhasa, China indicate that the city in Tibet is at a breaking point.
Just like in Xinjiang and Shanghai before the city reports food shortages, and lack of medical care. Just like in Xinjiang numbers are made up to comply with what Beijing wants to hear, since it never pays in China to be honest, and Xi's "success in battling COVID19", is a very sensitive issue. It is unlikely that the situation in backwaters such as Tibet and Xinjiang is as "good" as it was in "spoiled", rich , populous, well-connected and politically sensitive Shanghai.
A 218 meter 42 floor skyscraper in Changsha, China burned out.
A badly designed skyscraper is the equivalent of a chimney, in that it channels the hot air up though the rest of the tower, leading to extremely short response times for residents to get out. They are also fatally dependent on electrical power for water pumps and elevator operation.
Russia is trying to destroy the Ukranian infrastructure after its latest setbacks around the Kharkiv and Izyum area in its war of imperialistic conquest.
Ukraine has a blackout - because of the Russian targeting of a transformer substation - in the North East Sumy region, were no fighting has been going on since the initial _Russian push to conquer the whole of Ukraine. This after earlier strikes on transformers in Kharkiv and other parts of the country, on missile strikes on dams and other hydro-technical infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih and other locations.
Heavy artillery is now being used in the ongoing border dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Just as in the simmering conflict between Armenia_ and Azerbaijan, the disappearance of Russia as a military factor is leading to resumption of dormant, local conflicts in Central Asia.
The analytics department of rating agency Moody's is expecting house prices in the US to fall between 5% and 20%.
Rising interest rates and fear of a recession has driven house prices downward.
Ethereum has successfully made the switch from PoW (Proof of Work) to PoS (Proof of Stake).
It is still a scam, but now a scam that is not destroying the world anymore.
Ukraine has reconquered all lost territories in the East up to the Oskil river in the Donbas area.
And three Russian sources told Reuters that Ukraine offered to stay out of the NATO if Russia would not attack it, but that Putin rejected this and decided to invade. The Kremlin has denied this story. But more local politicians in Russia have called upon Putin to step down as leader, and/or to charge him with treason. This while more Russian crony oligarchs manage to "accidently kill themself", confirming that standing up to Putin is not without risk.
Armenia and Azerbaijan resumed fighting.
Several times before Azerbaijan backed down because Russia actively defended Armenia, but now that Russia is getting its ass kicked in Ukraine, Azerbaijan is seeking to change the facts on the ground in its favor. Another place where Russia is keeping the peace is Syria, while the regimes in Belarus and Kazakhstan only recently depended on Putin for their survival.
Ukraine reports progress on the Kherson front in its war against Russia.
The small villages of Vysokopillia, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Myrolyubivka and Sukhyi Stavok have been reconquered, and according to Ukraine several Russian units at the Kherson front-line are negotiating terms of surrender. It seems that the Kherson region is used as a "starving pit", a trap were lightly armed Russian soldiers can go in, but no heavy weapons or other heavy supplies can be provided due to the taking out of bridges over the Dnieper, thereby acting as a trap for the soldiers.
The nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine is being shutdown.
A line to the power-grid has been restored, enabling the operators to shutdown the last reactor. The power-line or diesel generators will provide power for cooling the stored nuclear material.
Ethereum is preparing to switch from a Proof of Work (PoW) to a Proof of Stake (PoS) model.
After all these years, a major crypto-currency is finally going to take the jump. If successful others could follow, although earlier attempts have been blocked by miners who stand to loose their income.
Ukraine has reconquered the strategic city of Izyum and also reclaimed all area's east of Kharkiv such as Vovchansk, Vasylenkovo, Artemivka, Borschova and others, undoing in days what took the Russian army months and many deaths to achieve. Ukrainian troops have reportedly even entered Lysychansk.
As retaliation Russia bombed a couple of power plants, but it is mostly shocked and stunned. Most of the Russian troops in the area have fled. Ukraine is booking very little progress on other fronts. According to The Daily Beast local officials around St. Petersburg have called upon Putin to step down in a letter, although it is unknown if this propaganda or a real rebellion.
The hidden COVID19 epidemic in Xinjiang and Tibet, China is continuing, with reports coming out that people in parts of Xinjiang have been in a hard lockdown for over a month.
People have not just been complaining about a severe lack of food and access to medical services but have even been committing suicide out of desperation. According to officials there are only a handful of cases, but Weibo posts claim that there are shortages of medical staff and hospitals due to the large number of cases. Posts also claim a shortage of morgue space, leading to immediate cremations. A director of a zoo is also desperately asking for food to feed the animals.
The UN's IAEA's observers in Zaporizhzhia are warning that the security of the nuclear power plant has been compromised due to a complete blackout.
Nearby shelling caused the last link to be severed according to the head of the IAEA on the site. The cooling systems are now running of the reduced power of the last still running nuclear reactor. If the reactor is still running, it could by accident cause a meltdown, but if it is not running, then only diesel generators can generate the electricity required to prevent a meltdown of stored nuclear waste at the site. According to the head of Ukraine's nuclear energy agency Russian soldiers have been killing and disappearing 12 staff members at the power-plant, and tortured, beaten and imprisoned more then 200 others.
Pakistan claims that around 33 million people - one in seven people - have been affected by the flooding, with more than 500000 houses destroyed or damaged, 1400 people death or missing, and 12700 injured, and that the total damage is at least 30 Billion USD. Meanwhile the UN Secretary General who visited said it was likely the climate change contributed the flood, saying it was "very unfair" that Pakistan - a small CO2 emitter - is suffering its consequences.
The Pakistani NFRCC Coordinator claimed in his press briefing that at least one-third of Pakistan was inundated, but the UN's UNOSAT cumulative satellite-detected water using VIIRS in Pakistan between 01 to 29 August 2022 shows "Within the analyzed area of about 793,000 km2, a total of about 75,000 km2 of lands appear to be affected with flood waters amongst which 48,530 km2 are flooded crop-lands", which means that "only", 75,000 km2 of Pakistan's 881,913 km2 is flooded. UNOSAT also estimates that at least 22 million people were exposed or living close to the flooded areas. The last great floods in 2010 affected 20 million people, displace 6 million, killed 2000 people, and destroyed 1.8 million houses. Ever since 2010 Pakistan's population has grown by 50 million people, and the same flood plains have been rebuild with even more houses.
Pakistan's government has promised that it will start making payments to the so called Chinese "independent power producers" (IPPs).
Pakistan - the bankrupt country that is ideal to generate power from solar - has instead chosen to let Chinese companies import and burn coal in 14 new coal power plants as part of the BRI CPEC. These companies turned out to massively overcharge (between 50% and 70% profit) for power, which left Pakistan with a bill of Rs300bn ($1330 million USD). On the 25th of February, 3 days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine prime-minister Khan of Pakistan traveled to Russia to ask it to build a pipeline to Pakistan to provide it with cheap gas. Bankrupt and flooded Pakistan is using very little fossil fuels, but not due to lack of trying. More than 26% percent of the imports of this sunny desert are fossil fuels, while its only exports are clothing and religious extremists. It has close to no solar generation, since kickback (bribes) are easy to arrange for large infrastructure projects, but not for decentralized rooftop solar generation.
In South Africa power outages due to lack of maintenance and investment have led to wide-scale load shedding.
Chronic under-investment, corruption and cronyism under the ANC have transformed South Africa from the most advanced economy in Africa to the next Zimbabwe.
Li Zhanshu, China's number 3 member of the CCP endorsed Russia's war of aggression.
He visited Russian members of the DUMA, and stated that China "understands and supports Russia", particularly "on the situation in Ukraine".
Ukraine is fighting in or has reconquered Vovchansk, Izyum, Balakliya (Balakleya), Kupyansk (Kupiansk) and Shevchenkove while Svatove and Lyman seem to be next.
Russia has retreated troops from Izyum, Svatove, and Lyman and is claiming to bring in reinforcements.Ukraine is using the momentum is has in its advance near Kharkiv and Izyum to maximum effect. The US stated that the Kherson offensive was an active faint, designed by Ukraine to draw away Russian troops from other areas so that Ukraine could start the real front around Kharkiv. The Kherson front is likely designed to act as a "starving pit", since Russia has to bring troops in, but can't easily provide ammunition or other supplies, since Ukraine can easily destroy any transport over the Dnieper river.
North Korea - the country that called upon its foreign officials / ambassadors to pay their communist "party contributions" in kind, namely in foodstuffs such as rice, corn, beans and other grains - has just given itself permission to launch preemptive nuclear strikes if it feels threatened, or if it is a war (which it technically still is).
It also swore and put in law that it will never give up its nukes. The law is a response to South Korean plans to execute a "decapitation strike" against North Korea's leadership if it makes preparations to execute a (nuclear) attack. In other news: it also mandated that masks must be worn at al times from the start of November to prevent the spread of COVID19.
According to Chinese propaganda outlet GlobalTimes, China and Russia will work together to create a "multi-polar world".
It continues the line of Xi and Putin in February just before the China approved Russian invasion of Ukraine. In practise this will create a bi-polar world in which Russia will become the junior partner of China in a alliance of convenience, and the Russian Far East will (eventually) become Chinese.
Li Dachuan, an official with China's National Health Commission called for a end to massive COVID19 testing at a press briefing.
Massive testing is costing the country approx 200 billion USD per year, and local governments are not paying their bills. Local government have strongly reduced income due to crashing land sales, lower taxes due to COVID19 lockdowns, and higher costs while they are already have hidden debt parked in LGFV's. Meanwhile key trade fairs such as SEMICON, Integrated Circuit Summit, China IC M.A.C.S.C.I. Forum, and the Lujiazui Financial Forum were called off due to COVID19 threats. Traveling is also still strongly discouraged.
Ukraine continues to reclaim territory in the Kharkiv and Izyum and areas.
While reports from the WaPo suggest that most of the Kherson offensive was a expensive failure with thousands of Ukranian soldiers needlessly killed for very little gain.
In China the slow motion real-estate crash continues to pick up steam, while consumer confidence crashed from 122 to 87.
Evergrande - the poster boy of over-leverage and most indebted company in the history of the world - has been forced to sell its last shares of the bank ( Shengjing Bank ) it bough so it could force it to loan it more than 100 billion Yuan. It's headquarters have also been seized because this was - of course - also used as collateral, just as any other asset it has/had. The contagion from the real-estate crisis has spread to the banking sector, as two more banks - Liaoyang Rural Commercial Bank and Liaoning Taizehe Village Bank - went bankrupt. Non-Performing-Loans (NPL's) in China went strongly up last quarter.
The Internet is going wild with Associative Neural Networks such as DALL-E and Stable Diffusion for image creating out of words.
Predictably porn is being generated by enterprising people, but the most interesting use cases - (child) abuse and kannibalisme - have not so far popped up in public fora. When they do the interesting discussion will start if these images will also be have to be forbidden if they have no basis in reality, and generating them caused no suffering.
The ECB has raised interest rates from 0.5% percent to 1.25%.
It is still lower than the US Fed rate, or the BoE rate. Inflation rates of more then 10% have forced the ECB to be seen to be doing something, even though cooling the economy is not going to lower energy prices in the short term. The move is in the first place a signal to the market that the ECB will tackle inflation. The Euro is still at a record low having lost approx 20% of its value.
Ukraine reports some successes in reconquering territory from Russia.
Russia is still trying to conquer the whole Donbas area, and is trying to halt a Ukrainian offensive at Kherson, leaving other lines thinly manned, which has been opportunistly exploited by Ukranian divisions around Kharkiv and Izyum.
China continues its harmful COVID19 lockdowns.
And as before people were left hungry in Guiyang (6mil), while Shenzhen (17mil) and Chengdu (21mil) also closed down, just as in Fengtai, a district in Beijing. In Chengdu, people were not allowed to leave their houses while a earthquake was happening, leading to understandable irritation. Lockdowns will continue till at least the congress on the 16th of October.
The UN reports that human development progress is backsliding.
Since COVID19 progress has gone in reverse, and has not turned positive yet due to war and climate change induced disasters.
Sri Lanka is still waiting for All weather friend China to help with debt relief as part of the IMF deal reached on September 1st.
China is its biggest foreign lender, accounting for at least 8 billion USD stemming from BRI deals. The other All weather friend and Iron brother of China is Pakistan, who is also bankrupt and now calling for at least 10 billion USD in aid while China is silent.
The last (reserve) power line for use by the cooling equipment at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been cut, meaning that only reserve diesel generators power the crucial cooling systems. All reactors have been taken down as a precaution, and the remaining one is running at a reduced level.
Ukrainian workers have reported that shelling of the power-lines was from the Russian side, but it remains unclear why they would shell part of a power-plant already under their control, who also houses their own troops. Disconnecting the power plant from the Ukranian grid is not enough incentive to shell your own troops.
The Russian army has been reduced to a artillery only army in it's war in Ukraine, as it only seldom uses it's remaining missiles and airplanes, while a posted photo seemed to show Ukrainian soldiers reaching the city limits of Kherson.
Russia has resorted to buying Iranian drones and even North Korean artillery shells, as is running out of those as well. Putin ordered the recruitment of 140.000 extra soldiers, but there are no indications that people are signing up "en masse".
Russia - the country were people who say anything not amusing to the dictator feel an deeply urgent need to commit suicide by jumping out of windows - has outlawed Novaya Gazeta.
The last independent newspaper the country had was started by independent journalists financed by Mikhail Gorbachev, the first Soviet leader who refused to kill his own people, and who sold his Nobel Peace price to help the newspaper to start. In practice the newspaper stopped publishing in March 2022 due to draconian censorship following the failed imperial conquest of Ukraine.
Another suicide attack in Afghan was aimed at the Russian embassy.
It killed 2 Russian staff members and 6 visitors while injuring an unknown number of people. The Taliban guards recognized him as a potential suicide bomber and shot at him, causing him bomb to explode. It is as of now unknown if Daesh (ISIS) is responsible, or what the motive for the attack was, but Russia has been talking with the Taliban to export oil, gas and wheat.
Ukraine and Russia are still mostly grid-locked in their respective war-fronts.
Russia is trying to create a breakthrough in the Donbas area, continuing to shell Kharkiv, while Ukraine is making very little progress in the Kherson area, and is continuing to take out high value military targets with long range artillery, thereby impeding Russian progress, but not shifting battle-lines.
India has launched it first home build, and second aircraft carrier.
India has increased its naval defense budget to counter the expansion of China's navy. Aircraft carriers are useless or inferior for almost all home defense tasks, but carry a high prestige element. Aircraft carriers are only useful as part of a complete floating army for invading or policing far away countries. For operating in home territory a simple floating runway is easier, cheaper and more practical.
A new suicide attack by Daesh (ISIS) against a pro-Taliban mosque in Afghan has claimed at least 18 lives.
Attacks by Daesh against the Taliban and Shiites have never stopped in Afghan, giving the Taliban a taste of their own medicine.
The Russian gas exports to Europe will remain closed, and Russia also announced it will block countries who will participate in the EU's fixed oil price scheme from buying oil.
Heavy gas using industry in Germany, The Netherlands and other EU countries have temporary closed, or announced severe reductions in output, due to the high price of gas, which will lead to higher prices and more inflation as a consequence of the economic war between the EU and Russia due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian offensive in Kherson likely failed.
No significant progress has been made so far, and both parties are yet again in a stalemate.
More COVID19 lockdowns in China have lead to the closure of the Chinese silicon valley Shenzhen. Chengdu, Dalian, Daqing and Changchun and big parts ofTibet are also locked down, as well as earlier reported locations such as Hainan, Macao and several other locations.
These lockdowns will continue at least till the new communist congress at October the 16th, as Xi does not want to loose face. At this congress Liu He - the vice premier, and one of the few sane people left to compensate for Xi's dumb, Mao-is-tic behavior - will very likely be replaced be a mindless stooge loyal to Xi. The shakeout has already begun with several of his remaining opponents removed for corruption, including the head of the anti-corruption unit. As Xi continues to crash China's economy, more nationalistic Jingoïsme is very likely to emerge.
The US announced more weapon sales to Taiwan to help it shoot down drones and sink Chinese warships if the need arises.
Taiwan is under pressure from Chinese semi-blockades and drills, incursions by airplanes in it's airspace, and it has just shut down a Chinese drone after it refused to leave it's airspace (others before did). China's Hostile actions have been steadily stepped up as part of it's salami slicing strategy, aimed at slowly strangling Taiwan until it seen no way out other then a negotiated surrender (or so China dreams). China has reacted furiously to the new weapon sale, even though the US has been selling weapons to Taiwan since before it recognized China, and has a law requiring it to help arm the Taiwanese against potential Chinese aggression.
South Korea, Japan and the US have agreed to pursue a hard response to future North Korea nuclear tests.
Since North Korea has been extorting the US and South Korea for aid and other concessions by threatening, this will likely increase rhetoric and bombastic military gestures in the short run, and could lead to escalation because of lack of communications.
The US has put up more restrictions in shipping chip technology to China.
Besides setting up the Chip4 Alliance with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan and the earlier CHIPS and Science Act which creates disincentives to investing in Chinese chip building capacities, NVIDIA and AMD have now made public that new export licence restrictions prevent them from shipping high-end chips to China.
China, Russia, Mongolia, Syria, Algeria, Nicaragua, Laos, India, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus are participating in the Vostok military exercises.
These countries - minus India - but with North Korea and Pakistan are part of the CSTO and/or SCO, and aligned with China and Russia.
Pakistan is suffering the consequences of the devastating floods, and the monsoon season has not ended yet.
A Pakistani minister claims that "By the time this is over, we could well have one quarter or one third of Pakistan under water", which has been taken by some media as a indication that 1/3 of the country is under water. Pakistan is now considering importing vegetables and grains from neighbor India, the country it is obsessively hating. The IMF has just reached an agreement with Pakistan to continue the earlier agreed loans which should provide some relief for the bankrupt country, and several countries have donated immediate aid relief. No country has come forward to offer to help Pakistan with rebuilding, with is estimated to cost around 10 billion USD. "Iron brother" China did extend the terms of 2 Pakistan's loans of 4.2 billion USD out of a total of at least 25 billion USD, so it could apply the IMF for help. Pakistan had a trade deficiencies of 35 Billion USB in 2021, and has had huge trade deficiencies every year since 2015.
Russia has again halted gas exports to Europe, while burning the gas which would normally go through the North Stream pipeline.
Russia wants to be able to pressure Europe, but since gas reserves in most countries, notably Germany are already full enough this will probably not work.
The EU had more record inflation, of 9.1 percent compared to a year before.
pricing pressure has spread from fuel and food to all sectors of the economy, suggesting it has become entrenched.
A new scientific paper claims that a 27cm sea level rise just from Greenland alone is already locked in.
The study claims that as long as the glaciers on the land are not being fed by more snowfall due to higher temperatures as is now the case, these glaciers will continue to bring ice to the sea, and thus this ice will inevitably help rising seawater levels.
Ukraine claims it has broken through Russian lines in the Kherson region, while Russia is attempting to break through Ukranian lines in the Donbas region.
It seems that Ukraine is going to try to directly advance on the highway to Kherson. The next months are crucial to gaining positions while the weather is still good.
The Mahdi Army of Iraqi politician and religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr has attacked government troops and militia from rival parties in Baghdad and other parts of the country, leading to at least 30 people killed, and more than 700 wounded.
It also fired rockets at Baghdad's Green Zone, and in Kurdish controlled gas fields. This after Al-Sadr did not get his way, and in response withdrew from politics and stirred up his supporters as he did many times before.
Ukraine claims that it has this time really started it's Kherson offensive.
Time is running out for Ukraine to roll back the Russian army. If it does not succeed in rolling back Russia back to Mariupol, it will be close to impossible to reclaim it later. The conquered parts of the Donbas region are probably lost.
Russia is moving troops from the volunteer 3rd Army Corps towards the Donbas front.
The soldiers are badly trained, but are equipped with modern material, indicating they are likely to be used a expendable shock troops to force a breakthrough.
China continues to battle COVID19, with 1300 new infections reported yesterday.
Most cases were reported in occupied Tibet, Xinjiang and tourist destination Hainan. Xianghe, a county next to Beijing also locked down after new cases were found, and widespread testing restrictions remain in place.
Armed clashes have again broken out between militia in Libya's capitol Tripoli.
At least 23 civilians have died, and 140 wounded due shelling with mortars.
Pakistan has called for international aid as the death toll of the floods continues to rise to 1033 casualties.
The floods are the worst since 2010. Since then houses have been rebuild on the same location due to lack of regulation and corruption. The Asia Cup T20 cricket match in Dubai between Pakistan and India will continue today as planned.
Russia blocked a amendment to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) because it stated that the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant should be under the control of Ukraine.
Although the NPT is mostly a paper tiger, it is a shame that attempts to make Russia look bad have sunk this change for the world to re-emphasis that nuclear weapons should have no place in this world, since it was already clear that Russia would object to this clause. The inclusion of it anyway show how much the existing nuclear powers value this new treaty.
Higher than usual monsoon rains have caused floods and homelessness in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Climate change is causing droughts and more water vapor in the air, leading to typhoons / hurricanes and torrent-rains and floods from atmospheric rivers. Earlier this month satellite sensors showed that methane emissions are seriously undercounted, which could partly explain why climate change is progressing faster than expected.
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Droughts are creating difficult farm conditions around the World.
In Texas farmers are forced to slaughter cattle prematurely as grass dries up, while 47% of Europe is under a drought warning, in what is likely the worst drought in 500 years, according to the EU's Global Drought Observatory, leading to estimated 12 to 16 percent cuts in harvest forecasts. Nearly all of Europe's rivers have dried up to some extent, while some such a those in Italy's Po valley have temporally ceased to be. Drought in China is also threatening food production and leading to severe power blackouts, causing it's government to raise the alarm. China is going through its longest sustained period of high temperatures and drought since records began, while also smashing heat records in oa. Sichuan.
The Euro has fallen below the Dollar, diving to its lowest level since July 15, 2002.
Sentiment is bearish on Europe due to the high inflation cause mainly by high gas prices and sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, which is driving inflation in Europe and the World. Gas shortages are actually not as bad as expected, among others due to LNG re-exports from China to Europe, Germany claims that it's natural gas storage facilities are now more than 80% full.
The price of grains, corn, cereals and oils, have returned to levels before the war began, although fertilizers are still extremely expensive. Other high prices are continuing to fuel inflation.
Dry bulk shipping costs in the Pacific have also sunk, just as shipping fuel, and chip producers are reporting a glut of chip production. The inflation effects are still rippling through economies though, with an estimated 20 million US homes behind on their power bills, and similar percentages in Europe.
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Right wing news stations in the US continue to peddle the narrative that a new weaponised IRS army of 90.000 new agents will hunt down and even kill middle class taxpayers that don't pay enough.
A job posting at the IRS for "Criminal Investigation Special Agents" listed as a requirement that applicants should be allowed to carry a firearm and would be willing and able to participate in arrests. The FBI has used the IRS to go after tax evading Mafia bosses. The number of IRS workers has gone down from 90.000 in 2012 to less then 80.000 in 2021.
Former prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan is facing terrorism charges after making threats against a judge and police officer in a speech.
Khan claims he was ousted as prime-minister by a sinister plot of the US. Other power brokers in Pakistan such as Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto went in exile after being faced with legal charges, an convenient outcome that could explain why Khan has not been arrested yet. Khan however is unlikely to flee, and has posted followers around his house to prevent arrest.
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Ukraine claims that Russia has lost more approx 45000 soldiers and more than 1900 tanks. More than 234 aircraft plus 197 helicopters have been destroyed as well.
The pace of destruction has slowed down significantly compared with earlier months. Russia has lost almost no aircraft and helicopters the last months, except through long distance artillery action. Meanwhile Russia has announced it will allow the IAEA to monitor the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
In Ukraine the Russian army is reported to have begun disconnecting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Yesterday Ukrainian workers at the plant let known that they were ordered not to show up for work, while Ukraine reports today that Russian Rosatom experts left the power-plant "urgently". Energoatom the Ukranian power company, claims that the Russian military has been looking for diesel to fuel the backup power generators at the power plant so it can disconnect the power lines of the Ukrainian power grid. Considering the alleged "voting with their feet" behavior of the Rosatom experts, it would seem that they think this is a unwise action from a safety point of view. The current wind direction is North-East and there is only minor wind, which means a accident would expose Russian occupied territories in Ukraine to radiation. The wind is expected to become a stronger Eastern wind later this week, which would bring potential fallout over Romania or Poland and Germany, and the Netherlands.
North Korea has rejected a South Korea offer of economic and humanitarian aid in words that leave nothing to the imagination.
The US and South Korea are strongly considering to again base nuclear weapons in South Korea, after the US withdrew those in 1991. North Korea is planning to do another nuclear weapons test, and claimed in a speech on 27 May 2022 that in case of war it would use it's nuclear weapons in a offensive capacity, not just as retaliation. So far it has just used them as a means to extract concessions from the US and South Korea, which in itself explains why it will never give them up.
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Low river water levels caused by climate change induced drought is causing transport, irrigation and cooling water problems.
In China the Yangtze has reached historical low levels, and Sichuan has rolling blackouts due to low hydro-power and lake levels, while cloud raining is attempted to save harvests. In Germany and the Netherlands the Rhine is so low it severely hinders shipping transport, while in Italy Lake Garda and the Po are at historical low levels, and in the US Lake Mead is at historical low levels, forcing authorities to deeply cut water use form the Colorado river.
The Global Times, a state owned propaganda outlet of China's CCP, reports that SOE's, members of the CCP and their family are "encouraged" to buy apartments from bankrupt real estate developers.
Since it involves CCP members they probably are allowed to receive huge discounts, something forbidden for normal public sales, since falling house prices would undermine the paper wealth of the middle classes who have no other means of saving.
The slow motion real estate crash in China is continuing, with China deciding to bail out the bankrupt developers.
The developers will be allowed to issue new loans which will be guaranteed by China's state owned China Bond Issuance, thereby taking all foreign developers debt and new their debt on it's own shoulders. The loans are only supposed to be used for finishing building projects and paying off foreign bonds and loans.
China continues to lock down areas where small numbers of COVID19 infections are detected, leading to deep economic and humanitarian malaise.
In Beijing kindergartens might open again, while in Hainan Chinese tourists have been left stuck in their vacation destination, and millions in China are still in forms of lockdown. China has confirmed new economic numbers are bad, and has lowered interest rates, which by far will not be enough to compensate for the combined effects of external supply chain redirection, its huge housing crash, and its COVID19 lockdowns.
The Langya henipa virus has been detected in humans in China, with at least 35 persons infected so far.
Human-to-human transmission of the virus has not been reported. Meanwhile the Polio virus is also doing the rounds again in communities were people don't use vaccines.
According to Beike Research Institute, a Chinese property think tank China has a vacancy rate of at least 12%, meaning that at least 50 million useless apartments have been build.
BRI was forced to apologize on We-Chat for bringing news that people did not want to hear. Capital Economics a firm in in London, UK puts the number much higher, at 30 million unsold homes, and 100 million bought but unoccupied or unfinished apartments, leaving very little doubt that the real estate market in China won't recover in the near future, and that most of these unfinished properties are worthless.
The war in Ukraine continues, with fighting in the Kherson and Donbas region without much progress on both sides.
Russia has again started attacking Kharkiv, and both parties are still fighting around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which could trigger a nuclear disaster. It furthermore seems that Ukraine has attacked Russian forces on Ziabrovka airfield in Belarus, potentially pushing Belarus to enter the war.
PFAS has been found in rainwater everywhere on Earth.
Since PFAS'es are a carcinogen, are highly stable, and only break down from cosmic radiation, it is necessary to ban PFAS in most consumer products, such as non-stick frying pans.
Latvia and Estonia left the 16+1 dialog group with China, following Lithuania example.
Lithuania left after China put up sanctions against it, after it showed support of Taiwan. Meanwhile several EU politicians have announced visits to Taiwan. Sympathies for China in Europe have shrunk drastically after it's continued support for Russia's war of conquest in Ukraine.
China claims it has finished it's "military exercises" in the Taiwan strait, but has moved in extra troops from other parts of the country to the area.
This could be for training those troops to operate in this environment, for a permanent stronger military presence, or something yet unknown. It has also removed it's offer not to deploy military personnel in Taiwan and to allow a "high degree of autonomy" in the event of a peaceful reunification from it's latest white paper on the subject.
The US FBI has raided former president Trump's home in Florida to confiscate classified documents which were taken by Trump when he left the White house.
Although right wing propaganda outlets make it seem the state secret documents are just items with sentimental values such as his letters from North Korea dictator Kim Jong-un, and the whole raid was for political purposes, the FBI made it quickly clear that they were after state secrets detailing nuclear deterrent details after receiving a tip from a whistleblower, and that previous "less intrusive attempts" to retrieve the documents failed. Fanatic elements of his supporter base have since called for taking up arms, and one of them tried to attack the FBI, as he stated on social media before he was shot during his armed raid of a FBI office.
The war in Ukraine continues, with Russia capturing most of the Donbas town of Pisky and Ukraine attacking an airfield in the Krim.
Russia had earlier claimed that taking the war to areas it has earlier conquered from Ukraine, such as the Krim could possibly lead to it using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
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Cuba is facing a power and oil shortage due to a lightening induced fire that destroyed most of it's oil holding tanks.
18 firefighters also died.
North Korea is offering Russia 100,000 "volunteers" to work for money in occupied areas in Ukraine.
It would mostly consist of people already doing the equivalent of slave labor in Russia's far East. They would not be sent to fight, as some media are reporting.
Russia claims that 10 states seek to join the SCO, a mostly Chinese lead coalition.
It claims that Syria,Egypt,Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Myanmar, Cambodia, Nepal, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan are seeking to become members.
China is continuing with military drills around Taiwan.
The drills are designed to practise blockading Taiwan in a show of force that is also meant to set a new normal. Expect China to step up blockades for arbitrary reasons in the future - which will eventually become full blockades shutting down air and shipping traffic - as it continues to try to coerce Taiwan in giving up its freedoms. Pakistan made a statement explicitly supporting China's actions.
The war in Ukraine continues, with Ukraine trying to advance in the Kherson region, while Russia is trying to gain ground in the Donbas region without success.
Russia has diverted troops to Kherson to try to prevent a Ukranian breakthrough. It has stopped trying to advance at Kharkiv. Both parties are fighting at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, leading to the very real risk that a nuclear meltdown can occur.
Israel is attacking sites and people of Islamic Jihad, a Iranian backed military group in the Gaza strip and the Palestinian West Bank.
Israel claims the actions are limited, and not aimed at Hamas.
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China is continuing it's military exercises around Taiwan effectively blockading Taiwan, while ASEAN, the EU and the G7 all warned against miscalculation that could escalate in the Taiwan Strait.
China is cooling off steam with powerless chest-pumping war-games, while also trying to impress the world and intimidate Taiwan.
Axios is reporting that Trump's Republican political allies are preparing for deep reforms to state institutions, if Trump would win the 2024 US presidential election.
They believe that approx 50.000 people working for several US governmental organizations are part of the so called "deep state" - a claimed cabal within the government - who have to be purged and replaced with pre-selected loyalists. Their focus is especially on the Justice Department. It seems that America is running out of time in implementing structural reforms to prevent a future fascist dictatorship, since in its dysfunctional duopoly the other party will gain power sooner or later.
Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan without incidents.
China called off its war planes before she arrived, probably to prevent unintended escalation by individual actions. It banned some Taiwanese imports as retaliation, and might be contemplating further punitive actions. It has already announced further military drills.
Russia has declared it is "absolutely in solidarity with China" over the visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, calling the visit a means of the US to "exert (additional) pressure".
It has earlier stated that it supports annexation of Taiwan by China. The US meanwhile has send marine ships and a aircraft carrier to the East of Taiwan to prevent a potential interception action of Pelosi's plane by China's air-force, which has turned off its transponders so it can't be tracked. On Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter the hashtag "the Chinese military dares to draw its sword" got 100 million likes, indicating how toxic nationalistic rhetoric propagated by state media propaganda has set the stage to escalation.
The US has assassinated Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri with a drone strike.
He was living in a uptown area in Kabul, Afghanistan among Taliban leaders. The Taliban confirmed and condemned the attack.
Nancy Pelosi, the chair of the House of Representatives of the US will visit Taiwan, just as Newt Gingrich did in 1997.
Asian stock markets dropped on the news. China has strongly increased the number of warships and airplanes on the sea/air border with Taiwan, including 2 aircraft carriers. Although it is not likely that China intents to dramatically escalate the situation, in the past brain washed kamikaze pilots crashed their planes into US surveillance airplanes in a show of misguided nationalism, and similar stupid acts could spin the situation drastically out of control.
Ukraine has finally managed to export grains from Odessa, despite Russian bombing and other interferences.
Yesterday Russia killed a grain-trader in a large attack on the Mykolaiv harbor and his house seems to have been specifically targeted, although the inaccuracy of Russian missiles makes it difficult to ascribe intent with certainty.
China is threatening to put up a air blockade around Taiwan if high level politicians from the US continue to visit Taiwan.
A air blockade can be expected in the near future anyway, along with a naval blockade if Taiwan won't submit to China's demands and surrenders it's autonomy.
China is again threatening with unspecified but serious (military) action if Nancy Pelosi, the chair of the House of Representatives of the US visits Taiwan.
Xi sees the trip as a act of humiliation against him since it is suppose to take place just before the next party congress in which Xi will be reinstated for a 3rd term. Nancy Pelosi has a long reputation of standing up against brutal dictators, including demonstrating on the Tienanmen square, were the Red army has butchered students demonstrating peacefully for political change. China's economy is in decline and internal problems have risen due to Xi's policies, which makes a military misadventure more likely. Conquering Taiwan has been a long goal of the CCP and especially Xi who sees himself as a new Mao but so far has not managed to damage China as much as Mao has, though not for lack of trying.
Ukraine has finally started it's Kherson offensive.
It has disabled most bridges and keeps on trying to destroy ammunition depots to starve Russian troops from ammo, while advancing towards Kherson. Progress remains slow however.
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Farmers in The Netherlands are stepping up demonstrations, and are also blocking highways and intersections.
A hard core of pig-farmers from Farmers Defense Force (FDF) and Agractie has radicalized into believing Qanon related conspiracy theory narratives, instead of moving towards capturing solutions such as the Lely Sphere.
Tunisia adopted the earlier mentioned new constitution, despite a low turnout of less then 30%. The new constitution changes the country from a parliamentary democracy to a elected dictatorship.
Bangladesh has asked the IMF for support.
After Pakistan and Sri Lanka it is the third country that is (almost) bankrupt.
Russia is continuing to reduce gas flow to Europe.
And the EU has finally reached a agreement on gas usage reductions, which are required to prevent large scale outages in the winter. It will likely not be enough, since Russia will probably reduce gas flow further to keep having a trump card to play.
Underlying drivers of inflation all seems to have come down, due to market expectations of cooling economic conditions, and market adjustments.
Lumber, copper, steel, methanol, rubber, and orange juice are down to their 5 year average while gasoline, soybeans, wheat, coffee, rice, potatoes and corn are still elevated, but prices have sharply come down from their peak in June or before. Only beef, chicken, LNG and coal are still elevated. meats because or earlier feed stock prices working its way through the market, and coal / LNG due to high demand from Europe in order to substitute Russian gas.
Russia's foreign minister claimed that Russia will try to overthrow the Ukrainian government, after it earlier stated that it will expand it's war goals to new Ukranian territories.
Russia is trying to scare Ukraine to the negotiating table now that it has fulfilled most of it's goals, and is unlikely to advance any further by military means. It seeks to get a peace deal with Ukraine that will hand over official sovereignty of not only the Krim and Donbas region, but also the Southern region of Ukraine, including the areas around Kherson and Mariupol. Russia is also trying to get European countries to pressure Ukraine towards the negotiation table by cutting gas flows.
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The number of monkey-pox cases worldwide has risen to more than 16000 worldwide, spread over 75 countries, making it a pandemic.
The WHO has declared it a global health emergency. This while a case of polio has been detected in the US and in the UK, although those cases could be the result of vaccination with a weakened, but functional polio virus.
According to Ukraine, Russian losses in the war against it now number approx 40000 soldiers and 1700 tanks.
Ukraine also accused Russia of making a mockery of the just reached deal to unblock grain exports, by firing 4 missiles towards the Odessa port, two of which managed to destroy infrastructure. Meanwhile Lithuania has completely lifted any bans on rail transport to Kaliningrad.
Evergrande, the poster child of China's real estate crash, made it known that it's subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has had most of its assets seized by banks.
This because the deposits worth 2 billion dollar were used as collateral for its bankrupt parent company. This kind of creative bookkeeping is not surprising for anybody who is slightly familiar with the Chinese financial system.
Defectors from Myanmar's army confessed to indiscriminate killing of civilians under orders from their superiors.
The civil war in Myanmar has turned into a guerilla war, with the Junta's army fighting an alliance of the PDF and ethic minority independence fighters such as the Kachin Independence Army and the Karen National Liberation Army.
The UK's MI6 chief said China's leadership underestimates the US's power and willingness to aid allies and this might lead them to miscalculate, in deciding to invade Taiwan.
This after the director of the CIA warned that it would not be a "question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it". Both have seen no signs that serious preparations are under way.
Russia and Ukraine reached a deal in Istanbul, Turkeyto unblock exports of grain from Ukraine.
A deal would help prevent massive unrest due to food shortages in the developing world, and would help keep inflation in check. But any deal is as good as its implementation, and Russia is not really known for being honest.
Russia has restarted pumping gas through the Nord Stream pipeline again, but still at only 40% capacity.
Russia is actively trying to prevent filling of gas reserves in Europe to pressure Europe to get Ukraine to accept the loss of territory, or at least to keep European countries from supporting Ukraine in it's defense against Russia's invasion. Russia is likely to succeed, unless Europe stops communicating how much gas reserves they currently have. Gas shortages would seriously impact all heavy industry in Europe, except in Greece, Spain and Portugal and Hungary, the country that is in all but name aligning with Putin's goals and now negotiating to have more gas deals with will be delivered through the Turk-stream pipeline.
The Crypto Meltdown is still ongoing.
Zipmex and Indefinite and Skybridge Capital halted withdrawals, while Blockchain.com, BlockFi, OpenSea and Gemini layed off more staff. Meanwhile the AEX crypto exchange was shut down by the police, and a Coinbase manager was charged with insider trader.
China's maritime militia are again active in Philippine water.
The new Philippine president wants to make new economic deals with China, which will likely come at the cost of further salami slicing territorial concessions.
Earth is set to be hit by a minor solar storm.
The only thing to expect is nice Borealis pictures on social media.
Italy's prime minister Mario Draghi resigned after loosing the support of his coalition allies, most prominently the populist Five Star movement.
The former ECB director was widely seen as keeping Italy from sliding towards bankruptcy. Financial markets responded to the news with a 9% interest rate increase of Italian bonds, despite the quantitative easing program of the ECB to keep rates down. Italy's president dissolved parliament so that new elections can be held.
The mortgage boycott in China has spread to 319 projects, and was also joined by real-estate developer suppliers refusing to pay their bank loans despite assurances by a senior official from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC).
In China not only companies do double bookkeeping, but it's government itself is the worst offender, especially it's local governments and state owned companies that are always stuck between the edict of the day, and other conflicting laws and regulations. People in China therefore know not to trust any assurances, but act upon any rumor.
China has fined it's Uber clone Didi 1.2 billion dollars for breaking a law that did not exist when the investigation started.
This after it listed it's shares on the NY stock exchange, despite behind closed doors objections for unknown reasons from the government. It's regulators claims serious crimes, but has not made public what those crimes are suppose to be.
The EU is urging it's members to cut gas usage by 15%.
This to prevent Russia from blackmailing it in the winter as Russia is continuing to cut gas exports to Europe.
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei endorsed Putin's war in Ukraine.
He claimed that NATO would invade Russia if Russia would not have invaded Ukraine.
Russia's Gazprom warned its customers in EU countries that it's dealing with a "force majeure", and cannot deliver gas.
Russia has been squeezing and turning of gas supplies to Europe and especially Germany in order to prevent the filling of gas reserves, to pressure countries to lift sanctions, and induce them to stop helping Ukraine in its resistance against the current Russian invasion of its territory. If the flows are completely cut it will lead to severe industrial constrictions in Europe and a long and cold winter.
The US supplied HIMARS have turned out to be highly effective in the Ukraine war while only used for less then a week.
Igor Girkin the former commander of the Russian sponsored Donbas forces claimed on Telegram that attacks with HIMARS were responsible for the destruction of "more than 10 large dumps for artillery and other ammunition, several oil depots, about 10 command centers and about the same number of troop gathering points", leading to "large losses in both men and equipment".
Ghana found at least 2 cases of the deadly Marburg virus, and has quarantined 98 people who might be infected.
Earlier recent outbreaks were in Angola in 2005, in Uganda in 2017 and in Guinea in 2021. Marburg is related to the notorious Ebola virus. There is no approved vaccine despite several trials due to low expected profit. It is not airborne, and due to it's high mortality it's spread is more limited then less deadly viruses, although it can have a very long incubation time. It is carried by bats and monkeys which are sometimes eaten by people, or contact occurs due to deforestation.
China CBIRC ordered that local banks should lend as much money as needed to finish worthless, speculative real-estate projects.
This after a mortgage boycott became widespread, leading to fears of social unrest. The problem is that most of these apartment blocks are the equivalent of concrete tokens, meant to collect value, not to actually live in. By spending money in finishing them, (money that the developers will not be able to pay back), good money is being wasted, since the eventual value of these projects will stay close to zero. The buyers will still have lost most of their money, the developers will still collapse, and the banks will have an even higher amount of bad loans on their books. Everybody would be better off if the government bought the houses from the buyers at strongly reduced prices. It will prevent failed banks in the near future, the buyers get a part of their money back, and some of the projects could be repurposed in the future for social housing.
Japan followed Germany and has announced it will at least double it's defense spending to 2% of GDP, and even abolish a hard spending limit.
Japan feels threatened by China's rising nationalism and high defense spending, and also has a mad dog nuclear neighbor called North Korea. Russia's behavior and alliance with China adds to the tensions, especially if Japan wants to retain the capability to help Taiwan if it gets invaded as it has promised several times. It also did not help that satellite images showed that China is training to take out Japanese AWACS planes.
The mortgage boycott in China has spread to 86 cities, becoming a nation-wide phenomena.
In China home buyers are required to pay 40% as a down-payment, after which they can get a mortgage from a bank for the remaining 60%, which should then only be used for building the home by the developer. But since the real-estate crash bankrupted almost all big developers, and since they used the payments as a huge pyramid scheme, there is no money left to actually finish the bought houses. This does not really bother the buyers, since they only bought the apartments as an investment anyway, but they are faced with owning worthless real-estate, for which there is no market. They can't sell the houses at a discount - even if they were finished - since China has officially frozen house prices to prevent social unrest and preserve the savings of the people on paper. But if the buyers default on the mortgages, the houses will need to be confiscated by the bank which would be forced to valuate them at the pre-crash prices. This would free the home-owners of the mortgage payments, and they might even get money bank from the bank, since 60% of the official value is more then what the houses are worth. It would leave the worthless half-build housing on the books of the banks, which would collapse.
Forest fires in the Mediterranean are worse then normal.
In Italy the Po is mostly dry, and in Morocco, Greece, Croatia, France, Spain and Portugal forest fires and heat-waves are breaking records. Even England is warning for a expected heat wave. Although summer heat waves and forest fires happen every year, it seems than climate change is having a real impact in both duration and extremity of these events. South East Asia, and particularly Shanghai are also affected.
The war in Ukraine is slugging along.
Russia's advance in the Donbas seems to have stalled, while Ukraine is using its western supplied artillery to do significant damage to Russian military facilities as demonstrated by Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu order to focus on preventing Ukraine's strikes on targets in Ukrainian occupied territories.
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Gang wars lead to at least 89 deaths in failed state Haiti.
The state has basically imploded, and local gangs lead by former police officers are openly in control and waging war for more territory.
The US and Israel signed a joined pledge, that they would use force to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons.
Biden, the US president said that "The only way to stop a nuclear Iran is if Iran knows the free world will use force".
China's bank crises in Henan and other locations is escalating, as demonstrated by CCP party propaganda mouthpiece Global Times attempt at trying to play down the issues.
The Henan banks became notorious after people demanding their money back got banned by the government's COVID health app of going near the banks. After that people were beaten up by hired goons in white shirts when trying to demonstrate near a bank while the police stood by and watched, people furthermore got intimidating phone calls by the police, got their social media use restricted and are - in some cases - prevented from leaving their homes. Some of the protesters are still in police custody. A number of the failed banks are actually indirectly owned by the local government through a LGFV, and banks in China are widely used as a way to circumvent loan requirements.
China's real estate crash continues with Bloomberg reporting that Chinese authorities had an emergency meeting with banks after the banks alerted that an increasing number of home buyers are refusing to pay installments on mortgages for apartments that have not finished yet.
The apartments in question were only bought as speculative investment, and because of their the shoddy construction and unfavorable locations have no real value. Due to the property crash in China developers have no money to finish the properties, which the buyers try to use as an excuse in order not having to pay for them. A large number of defaults, combined with the Chinese banks tendency to do "creative bookkeeping" as demonstrated in the Henan bank scandal and the cooking of the books by the real estate developers could lead to nationwide bank-runs.
The city of Huludao, in Liaoning province in China, is warning that COVID19 related costs has undermined it's ability to pay back its debts or keep it's hospitals running.
It reported having difficulty paying it's employees in time. Since most Chinese cities and provinces have huge off book debts through LGFV's, and one of their main sources of income, land sales to real estate developers is also gone, it will be close to impossible for them to start massive infrastructure projects as demanded by Xi to keep economic growth going, unless the national government pays the bill. COVID19 related costs are just adding to the already substantial troubles.
The crypto-currency crash continues to unfold, with Three Arrows Capital filing for bankruptcy, after its assets were frozen and it's founders disappeared without a trace.
This while Vermont's Department of Financial Regulation stated that bankrupt crypto lender Celsius is "deeply insolvent", 2gether, CoinLoan and Vault limited or stopped withdrawals, Genesis and Blockchain.com both reported hundreds of millions dollars worth of losses due to exposure to bankrupt Three Arrows Capital and Babel Finance, Uprise lost 99% of it's customer funds, and most of it's own funds and Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy.
Google, Microsoft and Facebook (Alphabet and Meta) are stopping hiring and laying of workers, indicating that the global IT sector is heading for shrinkage.
Offline is the new Online now that COVID19 is effectively over. The Cambrian explosion of IT seems to have settled into web-services and mobile apps, while new developments such as cryptocurrencies turned out to be a dead end. Consolidation seems likely the next couple of years, as old systems get phased out and unprofitable companies head for the exit.
8 ships are sailing to Ukraine to transport grains through the Danube-Black Sea Canal to World markets.
Military delegations from Turkey, Russia and Ukraine and a UN delegation will meet in Istanbul on July 13th to discuss the export of grains through the Black Sea. This since Russia also won't be able to export grain through the Bosporus if Turkey blocks it. If successful it will prevent massive unrest in poor countries due to food insecurity.
Russia's largest company, and the biggest gas producer in the World, Gazprom has announced it will stop paying dividends.
Western sanctions are having some impact. Most likely this move is to stop the slide of the Ruble which started this month. Russia controls a majority of the shares.
Ukraine has attacked and destroyed several Russian ammunition depots with Western supplied long distance artillery in preparation for a re-conquest of the Kherson region.
Russia keeps on shelling the entire front-line although it mostly ran out of advanced material, but Iran is set to support Russia with several hundred UAV's and will train Russian forces on how to use them. Russia's dictator Putin is set to visit it's new ally Tehran on July 19th. Although a short term win, aligning openly with Iran will mean that Russia will loose the neutrality of the Arabic world and the strongest country in the Middle East, Israel.
Both the Rajapaksa brothers who ran Sri Lanka into the ground have now resigned after mass demonstrations in which their mansions were stormed by angry protesters.
There are still a bunch family members in different positions in the government though. The former president tried to escape to Dubai, but was prevented from leaving the country.
The Euro, the currency of the EU moved to parity with the US dollar for the first time in history.
It signifies the long term growth prospects of the US vs Europe, while the Euro is also disturbed by the war in Ukraine, the looming recession and the raising of interest rates in the US.
China again urged the US to lift it's trade tariffs on China, claiming it hurt American consumers and businesses.
China also let Australia know that it's trade tariffs on the country would be lifted if it would "take concrete actions and come to a correct understanding of China", accusing Australia of being "irresponsible" when it demanded a investigation of the WHO into the causes of the COVID19 outbreak. China also demanding that Australia should not be "controlled by any third party", which is the usual code for stating that Australia is a puppet state controlled by the US, as it's nationalistic media claim.
Chinese banks have pumped 2.81 trillion Yuan into the Chinese economy, as it's prime minister called upon the 5 wealthiest provinces to "lead the way in economic recovery", while it has also pumped a trillion Yuan into "infrastructure projects", which will probably end up in "bridges to nowhere".
China's economy is stuttering due to the combination of the housing crash, supply chain redirections due to nationalistic politics, arbitrary crackdowns on several industries without warning which lead to investor insecurity, and the deeply damaging COVID19 lockdowns. According to economists it is close to impossible for China to reach it's stated GDP growth figures, even if it has a strong rebound. China needs a economic growth of 4.6% to avoid high unemployment, while youth unemployment is now at approx 20%.
China continues to battle COVID19 outbreaks.
Macau closed it's iconic casinos - which are it's economic lifeblood - due to a COVID19 outbreak, while Shanghai saw 60 new cases on Sunday, triggering fears of new full lockdowns. Daily cases in China now stand at 352 per day, with close to 30 million people in some sort of lockdown. China does not approve or recognize foreign vaccines and is sticking to it's Zero-COVID policy, despite the economic damage, since to do otherwise would mean loosing face for it's leader Xi Jinping.
The World population is close to 8 billion.
It is expected to reach that number at November the 15th. The world's population is growing at its slowest pace since 1950, which is very good news, since smaller family size leads to more education and development. Population pressure is also pressuring the last remaining wildlife areas, which are crucial for biodiversity and human reflection. The world will eventual switch to artificial feed-stocks, but until that moment comes suitable fertile land and water scarcity limits population size.
According to a poll by the New York Times only 26% of Democrats want US President Biden to run for reelection in 2024.
His general approval rating is only 33% among all voters, making him one of - if not the - most unpopular president in US history. People do like him in general, but concluded that he is not suitable for the job. High cost of living created by inflation is mentioned as the most urgent problem facing the country. The Democratic Party's massive economic stimulus is not entirely to blame for this (other countries also face high inflation), but it did not help.
The war in Ukraine continues, with Russia shelling Kharkiv, while Ukraine officially tasked it's military with "liberating" the southern region, starting with Kherson.
Russia is reduced mostly to just using artillery, since it ran out of almost any other long range rockets, and is even using S-300 surface-to-air missiles against land targets. This while Putin claimed that "we have not started in earnest yet", and daring the West to "try to defeat it" on the battle ground. Russia's parliament just past a law allowing full control and overnight work for companies making ammunition and other war supplies. According to the human right group Gulagu Russia has started recruiting among prisoners to fight in Ukraine. Russia has reportedly lost more than 37200 soldiers, with a much higher unknown number seriously wounded. Ukraine is now using Western supplied artillery and is firing 3000 155mm shells per day at Russian forces.
Russia shut down the Nord Stream gas pipeline.
They likely did this to prevent the filling of gas reserves in Germany and other European countries and to put pressure on them, to force Ukraine to the negotiation table and accept losses of territory. Italy, which is not connected to Nord Stream 1 also reported a 33% cut in volume.
Ukraine claims it will start a offensive to reconquer the Kherson region within a short time.
It has urged civilians to evacuate the region. It is unclear if Ukraine has the resources and if it's troops have the motivation to dislodge the Russians who have dug in deeply.
Protesters have stormed the presidential residence of Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka is so bankrupt that it ran out of money to import gasoline.
The new Philippines president Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., the son of the ex-dictator Marcos has issued his first executive order.
The order is to abolish the Presidential Anti-Corruption Commission, signaling that this president - like his father - will do his best to rob the country blind. His father had the dubious honor of being the the second most corrupt government leader in the world, but Junior is off to a fine start to improve his record.
The UK intercepted a shipment of Iranian missiles which it claims was to be supplied to Houthi independence fighters.
If truth, this would be the first evidence that Iran is helping the Houthi's against the Saudi led coalition in the war in Yemen.
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Ukraine has for the first time released numbers about its losses of material.
It has lost at least 1300 armored vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery systems. More than 10000 Ukrainian soldiers have been reported killed, with a unknown number wounded. It had 2500 tanks, 12300 armored vehicles, 2500 artillery systems at the start of the war in various states, which suggest that approx 16%, 30% and 10% of its prewar tanks, artillery systems and vehicles have been destroyed, although it has been resupplied with large numbers of arms from allies, and reported capturing material from invading Russian forces.
The directors of the US FBI and the UK's domestic secret service MI5 held a shared press conference to warn of increased domestic treats coming from China.
They claim that the number of Chinese operations now being investigated has gone up exponentially in the last 3 years, calling China the "biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security". They claimed China had directly interfered in a congressional election in New York, but most cases are related to military and industrial espionage.
The COVID19 outbreak lead the a sharp increase in the amount of people affected by food insecurity in 2020 and 2021.
828 million people were affected in 2021, 46 million more than in 2020 and 150 million more than in 2019 according to the UN FAO, WFP and the WHO. The supply shocks caused by the war in Ukraine will without doubt increase this number.
Boris Johnson has announced he will resign as Prime Minister of GB after yet another new scandal.
This only after 65 members of his government urged him to go or outright resigned, including 25 ministers and 5 secretaries of state. But even now he is trying to cling onto power by announcing that he will go in the authem after a new Tory leader has been elected, hoping things will blow over, and he will be elected again. The government of Boris Johnson was plagued by scandal after scandal due to gung ho decisions in which he was informed of potential problems but choose to make the wrong decisions anyway. He has proven to be a shameless but charming clown and good communicator who can only function if other people make the right decisions for him. After he got rid of the "serious people" and refused to listen to people around him there was nobody left anymore to protect him from himself, a faith and character trade he shares with Donald Trump.
China continues to try to curb COVID19 outbreaks.
Beijing reported four new infections, Macau has a big outbreak, a infection has been reported in Xinjiang, the provinces of Shaanxi and Jiangsu reported multi-digit cases, and Shanghai has a new outbreak related to illegal bars and restaurants, as people are working around overly strict zero-COVID restrictions. But it seems that sanity is finally breaking through, as Beijing has ordered that people wanting to enter public places in Beijing must be vaccinated, a move that likely will very quickly be copied in other cities.
Scientists at the CERN Large Hadron Collider have found a new pentaquark and two tetraquarks.
This is a new configuration of particles we already know, quarks. It falls within the framework of the Standard Model and specifically Quantum Chromodynamics.
The real estate slow motion crash in China continues with Shimao Group and R&F Properties unable to pay debt and Evergrande facing possible forced liquidation.
Canceled land sale auctions have gone up at least 17%, and desperate property developers have gone as fare as accepting farm produce as payment in a bid to sell unsellable houses. The produce is valuated at bizarre unrealistically high prices, since China has forbidden the sale of houses at a discount, to keep the prices artificially high even if there are no buyers. In this way they are trying to give discounts, and create a new market. House prices have to stay high since buying houses is the way the population in China has saved, and a drop in price would mean the wiping out of decades of savings.
Farmer protests in The Netherlands has led to local shortages in supermarkets.
Radicalized farmers have temporary blocked several distribution centers, because they don't agree to nitrogen emission mandates, due to the heavy industrialized farming industry.
Russia gained lots of ground in the Donbas area, in the war against Ukraine.
It has learned to focus on its strengths, avoid big mistakes and is almost at the gates of the next target, Siversk.
The number of heavily distressed or insolvent countries is continuing to grow, with Argentina set to join the list after its finance minister quit in frustration.
The list of failed/insolvent countries or countries receiving emergency IMF support is now: Afghanistan, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Guinea, Mali, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Togo, Yemen, Pakistan, North-Korea, Eritrea, Sri Lanka, Sudan, South Sudan, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Zimbabwe, DR Congo, Venezuela, Iran, and Ghana. Fragile countries that could soon join the list are Turkey, Argentina, Russia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq and Tunisia. Countries within the EU with high debt are Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Belgium and France.
China continues to battle COVID19 outbreaks, in Wuxi, Yiwu while also reporting new cases in Shanghai and a large outbreak in Macau.
China will probably continue to battle imaginary enemies for quite a while now that it can afford it.
Protests broke out in the autocratic state of Uzbekistan after its dictator announced it would abolish partial autonomy of its Karakalpakstan region.
The security forces responded with brutal force, leading to at least 5 deaths and many more wounded. The plan has been withdrawn to lower tensions.
Russia has managed to encircling and capture Lysychansk.
It fell almost without a battle, and a part of the local population cheered the Russian soldiers who walked unimpeded into the city, signifying that the Ukrainian soldiers who had been sent there have had enough and were suffering from moral problems.
Germany is set to legalize the use of cannabis for recreational use.
After Portugal and the Netherlands this could pave the way for a long overdue EU wide general legalization of harmless drugs.
The war in Ukraine is continuing with Russia slowly encircling Lysychansk and it is again trying to capture Kharkiv, while Ukraine managed to recapture Snake Island.
Russia is also trying to recruit Russian workers to rebuild the occupied areas, and repopulate them with Russians, while it also stated that Ukraine can end the war at any moment by surrendering. Ukraine plans a summer counter-offensive starting in August to reconquer lost territory, which should be finished before the winter. Russia has called up reservists, and stepped up efforts to recruit new soldiers, while resorting to anti-shipping missiles and soviet gear since it has mostly run out of more modern arms. Russia also deployed and continues to deploy weapons that are banned, such as cluster-bombs, phosphor bombs against soldiers, ammo with darts, and even a limited amount of poison gas. It continues to cynically claim that the many civilian casualties in cities that were hit are all actors doing staged setups to make Russia look bad.
Russia nationalized Sakhalin-2 a oil and gas project, is close to adopting a law that would ban all foreign news media and has also taken measures to stop an exodus of Russian pilots trying to move abroad.
Russia accused Norway of blocking its access to Svalbard, an Norway island to which it has economic access but claims that sanctions would only lead to unification of Russia with Belarus. Ukraine want other countries to confiscate a Russian ship with grain likely stolen from Ukraine, which - if it passes unhindered - would be an unethical war theft, but it would help levitate global grain shortages.
Developing Countries in the World are still struggling with the financial fallout of the COVID19 induced supply shocks.
Sri Lanka has rationed fuels, Ghana is now asking the IMF for help, Pakistan is still negotiating with the IMF and Sierra Leone is replacing banknotes due to hyper-inflation.
Hong Kong celebrated its 25 years under Chinese control.
Since Xi came into power it has effectively abolished freedom of speech, outlawed protests or memorials, introduced indoctrination propaganda in the classrooms and created legal uncertainty, due to the draconian National Security law that can and has been applied arbitrary. More then 120000 people have already left Hong Kong, and 60% of young people have expressed a desire to emigrate, according to a survey by the Chinese University of Hong Kong. It is unlikely that a next survey will be allowed to be held, or published. Hong Kong has lost its attractiveness as a gateway to China, since if you have to put up with the nasty insecurity of China's repressive system you might as well do it from much better connected Shanghai or from tech oriented Shenzhen.
Tunisia has published a draft for a new constitution, while protesters in Libya set fire to one of its parliament buildings.
Tunisia was one of the few success stories of the Arab spring, but has been sliding backwards the last couple of year. The current president has limited the independence of the juridical branch, sidelined the supreme court, dissolved its parliament, ruled by decree and now wants to formally go towards one man rule, including total control of the army.
The US supreme court is set to issue new rulings on affirmative action.
It went also after environmental laws, such as allowing the EPA to regulate CO2, and after hidden Carrie law in New York. It seems that the conservative majority in the Supreme court is set to reinterpret major legal legislation to shift the US towards a more conservative bent, making this current supreme court the most activist supreme court since the 1970's when it turned deeply progressive. It a certain way this supreme court is right that shoddy precedents should not be allowed to stand, since there is no real basis for them in a normal interpretation of the US constitution. These rights (abortion, gun laws, CO2 legislation) should have been put into law through the normal legislative process but this is close to impossible in Americas duopoly, and removing existing right goes deeply against the common law system.
Farmer protests in The Netherlands have escalated.
A subset of farmers has radicalized on social media, and is leading actions which are very extreme for Dutch standards. The current dispute is about cuts in permits to exhaust nitrogen oxide and other byproducts of the Dutch Industrial Farming system, but the underlying issue is a top-down approach towards regulations which is hard to swallow for the farmers who were historically privileged due to the unconditional support they received from the now minor Christian CDA party.
The US January 6th congressional committee continued uncovering graphic details in it's hearings.
Testimonies from bodyguards and aids to presidential staff members showed in full that ex-president Trump had clear intention to have armed protesters pressure the US congress, and was actively trying to lead the charge himself, even after he was warned several times in unmistakable language that his claims were false, and that the situation would escalate. Fox news and other US Republican media continues to stonewall the hearings and it's findings.
NATO announced it has reached a agreement with Turkey to allow Sweden and Finland to join.
Turkey was haggling to extract concessions from Sweden and Finland, and got a lifting of the weapon embargo those countries had against it, and a statement of intent to collaborate in fighting PKK terrorism. It immediately called upon them to extradite 33 PKK and Gulen members. NATO also pledged to support Ukraine for "as long as it takes", and announced it will set up 2 more military bases in Europe to be able to quickly field 300.000 soldiers.
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The G7 meeting in Bavaria, Germany was dedicated in how to deal with Russia and China, and lead to new sanctions on Russia plus an announced alternative to China's BRI.
Gold from Russia is now also banned. The G7 is planning to mobilize $600bn in funding for project loans to the developing world, while Japan's prime minister warned unnamed countries (China) of 'not learning the wrong lessons' from Russia's invasion and warned against "attempts to change the status quo by force".
The US president signed into law a actual bill to reform gun lawns that has passed both the US Senate and the House.
the bill is off course quite limited. Juvenile gun buyers will have to pass a background check for records of criminal behavior and mental problems and convicted domestic abusers can't buy a gun if they are still in a relationship with the person they are abusing.
Iran launched a long range missile carrying a satellite.
This missile could of course also be used as an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile. Iran claims that its nuclear and missile programs are purely for peaceful purposes. Israel - the state that Iran wants to wipe from the face of the earth according to it's propaganda and slogans - does not believe this.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte claimed that sanctions on countries such as China will not "help anyone in Hong Kong or the Uygurs" on a EU summit.
After trying to derail Ukraine joining the EU he now seems to think that genocide of the Uygurs should be accepted as "cultural differences". It is quite a accomplishment to be so on the wrong side of history.
Shenzhen, China is entering a limited lockdown as more endemic cases of COVID19 have been detected.
Although the number of cases is in the single digits, Omicron spreads blazingly fast, and the Zero-COVID policy leaves local rulers no room to maneuver. Shenzhen earns $300 billion in exports, and is the main high tech export engine of China.
China's panopticon is becoming more encompassing and more geared towards herding people in all aspects of their lives.
The name of the main character in Orwell's novel 1984 should not be Winston, but Li while the mobile has replaced the bidirectional tv.
Biofuel mandates in the EU and the US are still in force despite a looming global food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine.
Biofuels are insanely wasteful to create, and a technological dead end now that alternatives exist. Although most grains are used for feeding livestock, and only around 6% are used for Biofuels, the lifting of Biofuel mandates is a long overdue measure especially now that people in developing countries are becoming food insecure.
Russia has suggested that Moldavia should be annexed by Romania.
Moldova's membership in the EU is possible, not directly, but through creation of the "new Greater Romania," according to ex-prime minister and close friend of Putin Dmitry Medvedev who is also Deputy Chairman of the Russian security council. This is yet another proposal to cut up countries without bothering to wonder what the people of the countries themself might think of this.
The crypto currency market has stabilized for now with bitcoin around $20.000 and several private sector rescue plans for crypto companies that got into trouble.
Sam Bankman-Fried did a bailout for BlockFi, Three Arrows Capital got a loan, and Goldman Sachs is seeking to buy Celsius. But Bitpanda and Bybit layed off personnel, while CoinFLEX stopped withdrawals.
Ukraine has withdrawn all its troops from Sieverodonetsk giving up defending the city, while Belarus and Russia sent a volley of approx 50 cruise missiles into Ukraine.
Putin is putting pressure on Lukashenko to join the war against Ukraine. The war is deeply unpopular in Belarus, and Lukashenko's generals have more or less told him that their soldiers would refuse to fight, or might even start a uprising against the illegitimate dictator who falsified last elections and then suppressed mass demonstrations. Lukashenko made bizarre announcements on the 17th of June, that Poland was threatening and could invade Belarus any moment, which necessitated sending all available troops to the Polish border, which was just a transparent lie in a bid to not get dragged into this war. The cruise missiles are also a way of telling Putin that it did something when meeting him today in St Petersburg,Russia. According to Ukraine the missiles were fired by Russian airplanes operating above Belarus airspace, which is probably a understandable lie.
Shanghai, China has finally managed to get back to zero COVID19 cases. It's party boss announced that they had "won the battle to defend Shanghai", which validated Xi's "completely correct" Zero-COVID policy.
If China has a couple more of these victories it's economy will cease to exist. Shanghai will allow schools to be opened again while Beijing is still not in the clear. Both places still have a mass testing scheme in place in which all citizens are required to have a PCR test every 24 hours in order to use any public facility.
The EU formally accepted Ukraine as a candidate member.
This despite initial opposition from countries such as The Netherlands. Full membership will take many years and is conditional to deep reforms, especially concerning it's deep endemic corruption.
The US Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, which will make abortion illegal in 13 US states right now or in the near future.
Although states as Mississippi only bans abortion after 15 weeks, not completely. The overturn is in the first place more red meat in the ongoing non-volatile civil war in the US.
Germany has entered alarm level 2 out of 3 levels in its national gas plan.
This after Russia cut gas to less then 40% of capacity as countermeasure to Western sanctions. Russia also threatened Lithuania with unspecified actions.
The war in Ukraine continues with high losses on both sides, but Russia making the most gains.
Russia is getting close to capturing a pocket of the Ukrainian army around Hiske, Ukraine, and is inching closer to completely surrounding Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk while Ukraine used newly supplied Western missiles to hit sea targets such as oil rigs and Russian resupply ships.
News has emerged that employees of Byte-Dance in China have repeatedly accessed TikTok user data in the US.
This would be normal for sysadmin maintenance and debugging issues, but since China has a reputation of forcing it's companies to spy for the state it has set off a panic in the US.
Inflation continues in both developed countries and the rest of the World.
Inflation in developed countries is higher in open economies such as the UK that is also seeing side effects from Brexit, but is also there in other developed economies. In Turkey, where crazy uncle Erdogan has killed the independence of its central bank the rate is 160.80% according to ENAG. Big exceptions are Japan and China. China is suffering from a recession which undercut demand, while Japan is still continuing to fight deflation.
The IEA has warned that Russia might completely cut off gas exports to Europe after a second cut this week.
The IEA chief says that Russia's goal might be to prevent gas storage to be filled in the winter, so that Russia would be free to turn off the heat and power as a means to pressure Europe.
A heavy earthquake has struck Afghanistan close to Khost.
The death toll is already 920, and many more are still not counted. The extremist Taliban dictatorship has called upon aid agencies to come in to help rescue people, although it is unlikely massive help will be provided for various reasons.
Floods are causing displacements of millions of people in Bangladesh and in Assam, India.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan both in Pakistan also reported pre-monsoon floods. Iran recorded a temperature of 52.2 C in Abadan. Climate change is here.
Macao, China saw a surge in COVID19 Omicron cases, and announced it is building quarantine centers.
In the West Omicron variant BA.2 is spreading fast, but hospitalizations remain low.
In China the so called SOE's (State Owned Enterprises) have been ordered to hire more college graduates.
This after Xi ordered the private sector to be patriotic and hire more graduates to tackle high youth unemployment. Efficient private sector companies have in the last couple of years been pushed out or taken over by inefficient SOEs.
The crypto meltdown continues with bank runs and stable-coins becoming unstable.
Sol almost collapsed due to a massive margin call on a account, which it tried to stop by confiscating the account, but it was forced to reverse this decision due to backlash from the crypto community. This while Exchanges such as, Babel Finance , Finblox and Hoo stopped or severely limited withdrawals due to bank runs. Stable-coins Magic Internet Money and Tether have had difficulty in maintaining their peg to the US Dollar. The controversial crypto-coin Tether is the largest stable-coin, but it has seen its market capitalization fall from $83 to $68 billion in the last months. Since the wide-held assumption is that Tether is largely backed backed by other coins and not by safe assets it could collapse at any moment. If it does, it will cause a implosion of the complete crypto-market.
European countries and especially Germany are taking measures like phasing in coal to deal with Russia's cut in gas deliveries which is done as retaliation to Europe's sanctions and weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
This while Lithuanian started banning rail transit of non-essentials over it's territory to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. The cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk are now almost completely surrounded, and Sieverodonetsk could fall at any moment.
Scaling problems and strikes continue to cause chaos or delays at airports around the World.
Global hub Schiphol in the Netherlands is canceling flights, while Brussels airport in Belgium is completely grid-locked due to a strike. The sharp bounce-back in air travel has led Air India to order 300 narrow-body jets, although this is not officially confirmed yet. Airbus is still waiting for delivery of engines to finish 20 jets due to supply chain problems.
In North Korea widespread hunger is reported, while it dictatorship claims it's COVID19 Omicron outbreak is almost under control.
The WHO says that cases are likely underreported and that the situation could be deteriorating. North Korea reported 4.6 million cases, but since it does testing almost completely based on temperature, it can't detect a-symptomatic cases, and it likely underreported cases for political reasons. Basic food-stocks such as rice has rises 10x in price, and reports of deaths due to the combination of malnutrition and Corona have risen. It also reported an undiagnosed diarrhea causing disease which is spreading, which is most likely cholera. North Korea stopped importing medical supplies from China, and is now importing soybeans, wheat and sugar.
The IMF is refusing to bail out Zambia.
At least not until Zambia restructures it debt with other lenders, most notably China who is responsible for most of the debt, and refuses to even disclose the amount and it's conditions.
Bitcoin crashed below $20.000, while other crypto currencies also slid further downhill.
Bitcoin is a fantasy currency that is unsuitable for payments or for usage as money in every possible way, but people convinced themself that other people would want to buy their fake money for a much higher price in the future as greed lead to FOMO.
The EU has decided to give Ukraine and Moldavia EU candidate status, and also asked Ukraine to restart negotiations with aggressor Russia which has stepped up attacks and is now squeezing the gas flow to Germany, Italy, Austria and Czechia.
Ukrainian troops in the Azot chemical plant in Sieverodonetsk are now completely trapped while Ukraine is preparing for a possible attack from Belarus after bizarre remarks from Lukashenko. Russia's dictator Putin who only recently stated his aspirations to restore the Russian Colonial Empire to former greatness, responded on TV to the news of EU candidate status with accusations that the EU is a colonial power and a puppet of the US.
Stock markets worldwide and crypto-currencies continue to fall.
Kraken want to lay off people while Three Arrows Capital, Finblox and 8BC are likely insolvent. According to 8BC 3AC has used 8BC's funds to answer margin calls obligations. Normal, but zombie companies marred in debt could be next.
Violent protests have broken out in India after the introduction of the Agnipath recruitment scheme.
India tried to implement a new army recruitment system that limits the time people serve to only 4 years instead of 17 years. This to reduce the number of old people in the Indian army, and replace them with people who can actually fight. The potential recruits disagreed, and saw the army as a job-for-life. In the words of a potential recruit: "Where will we go after working for only four years?"
China has launched its 3rd aircraft carrier.
And this carrier actually works since it has a catapult, which is missing in the previous 2 carriers. This is a requirement since its intended fighter-jets use underpowered WS-10A engines after its newer engine kept exploding. The underpowered engine is the reason you don't see any videos of J-20's taking of from the carrier with bombs or a full tank, severely limiting its capabilities and range. China also had to set up a new school for fighter pilots since the existing ones can't seem to land on the carriers. China will still need to learn basic battle group tactics, since a single aircraft carrier is highly vulnerable, which is why the US always uses multiple ships in multiple roles. China is right now using its carriers as stand-alone vessels.
The January 6 2021 hearing in the US continues with the news that a Trump advisors and lawyer John Eastman asked for a presidential pardon after January 6 for his role in the coup attempt.
Although you would not know this if you checked a Republican leaning news network such as Fox News, since they decided to stonewall everything, pretending it does not exist. In related news: Mike Pence, - the vice president who at the last moment found his spine, and refused to help Trump stage a coup - is preparing to run for president, and bizarrely could become a compromise Republican who would even gain votes from the Democrats in the primaries in order to keep Trump out.
The WTO has reached a new accord after 6 days of hard negotiations.
One of the main issues was a gradual limit on subsidies for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. The measure which is mostly aimed at China's dark fleets was objected by India who has a very large fleet of small, limited range, unprofessional and illegal fishers who would be heavily impacted as well. The deal - which places no hard demands - will automatically expire after 4 years.
The US Fed and the EU's ECB have raised interest rates to tackle persistent inflation.
Share prices have taken a further dive as investors prepare for a credit crunch which will lead to a small recession. China is already in a recession as can be seen in the high youth unemployment rate and the flight into government jobs as China's real estate crash is starting to bite. China's government has demanded that the private sector create jobs for the national good, but it unclear whether this can be done. Tech giants in China have been laying off huge amounts of jobs due to the government crackdown on spiritual opium (video games), and the wiping out of the private education sector due to - again - sudden government edicts. Other parts of the private sector are still reeling with the fallout of the COVID-zero policy.
New South Wales in Australia is dealing with electricity shortages.
Australia's energy minister has asked people to try not to use power at peak-times around 19:00.
The ESA Gaia mission has released a new detailed map of the Milky Way.
Among other things it has detected unusual star-quakes on stars.
The ECB, the EU central bank will start buying state obligations from its Southern Europe members.
This after the interest rates for those countries has started to rise to dangerous levels. The ECB decided that it is much cheaper to act now than to try to bail out a country such as Italy later.
Great Britain announced that it will withdraw laws that require the use of the metric system besides the imperial system in shops and on signs. Kids who have learned the simple rules of the metric system will have have to wonder what a gill, slug, barleycorn, twip, thou, link or scruple is. The other countries using the imperial system are Liberia and Myanmar.
With the deeply incompetent Boris Johnson as prime minister Great Britain is starting to resemble Little Britain.
The Crypto currency collapse continues, with cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini, BlockFi and Rain laying off large numbers of employees and panicking.
Bitcoin even dropped to a low of $20.181, close to the level at which margin calls will sink the pseudo currency even further. It also turned out that crypto lender Celsius is functionally insolvent since it can't access value it has in stETH, while Coinbase is delaying withdrawals for 48 hours. The country El Salvador that had adopted Bitcoin as a currency is facing big loses.
The Hayabusa2 space probe from Japan found 23 types of amino acids in the asteroid samples it took.
Amino-acids are the building blocks of all life as we known it. This proves that Pseudo-panspermia is a possible and plausible route to the emergence of life on planets.
Israel continues to fight a secret war with Iran.
It has assassinated at least 5 high ranking members of it Revolutionary Guard and nuclear engineers inside Iran itself, bombed the main airport in Syria used by Iranian forces, and is calling upon it citizen to avoid Istanbul where Iran had planned to kill or abduct Jews. Iran has lately bombed a Israeli facility in Iraq, hacked senior Israeli officials and both have been blowing up each others transport ships. Israel furthermore announced that its stealth F35 fighter jets now have the range to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran negating to need for US supplied air refueling airplanes.
Russia is close to completely capturing Sieverodonetsk were intense fighting is continuing, and has cut off the city while Ukraine's attempt to reconquer parts of the Kherson region have stalled as Russia has reinforced troops in Kherson with troops previously stationed in Melitopol.
Russia is handing out Russian passports, replacing Ukrainian flags, and introduced the ruble as the currency in the Melitopol region, while the Ukrainian resistance has been killing Russian troops and their collaborators. Russia continues to try to keep pressure on Kharkiv indicative of its intent to capture that city as well. Russia has switched to a slow war of attrition, thinking it can outlast Ukraine resources and Western attention span.
Worldwide stock prices are sliding while crypto-currency casino tokens are taking huge losses.
Crypto currency lender Celsius has even halted all withdrawals to stop the crypto bank run. The total crypto currency market has fallen 2/3 since November 2021. The Bitcoin price is now at $24.000, inching close to the point of no return at around $20.000 where margin calls can take it al the way to zero. Also USDD, another so called "stable coin" seems to have lost it's peg.
United Russia, Putin's party, has submitted a bill to the DUMA, it's parliament, that withdraws Russia's recognition of Lithuania as a independent country.
The member who proposed it claims that according to its own rules NATO would have no choice but to kick out Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia from NATO because those countries have significant numbers of minorities within its borders, in what must be the most bizarre example of wishful thinking in the recorded history. A CIS Institute head further claimed that Poland should be redistributed, so that part of Lithuania should be given to Poland, part of Poland should be given to Germany, and part should go to Russia, in what sounds a lot like the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, and is indicative of the potential intentions of nowadays Russia.
China stated again that if Taiwan declares itself independent it will start a war over Taiwan.
Since it has been screaming this out from its propaganda outlets for at least the last 30 years, this should not come as a surprise to anyone. Taiwan has "de facto" been independed since 1949, longer than 127 other countries in the world out of 195. China has also started claiming that the Taiwan Strait isn't international waters which would be a new salami slicing step. Propaganda outlet Global Times published a editorial claiming that China should not be "hesitant to fight", since this will "help peace across [the] Taiwan Straits", showcasing China's conviction that the US only "wants to keep China down", and is only interested in helping Taiwan as "a stick to hit China with". In this twisted logic the US will simply back down if China shows that it is really determined, and really, seriously wants to conquer Taiwan.
Border skirmishes have been reported between Rwanda and DR Congo.
Armed groups of Hutu's have been in a low level war against Tutsi dominated Rwanda from Eastern Congo since the notorious genocide by the Hutu's against the Tutsi's in 1994, which ended with the Tutsi's driving out large numbers of Hutu's into DR Congo.
Ukraine announced that approx 10000 of it's soldiers have died in the war against Russia's invasion.
If the normal ratio of 2 injured for every person killed holds, this means that 30000 of it's soldiers are dead or incapable of fighting. It suggest a kill ratio of 3 to 1 in favor of the Ukrainians, although that has started to shift towards 1 on 1 due to the artillery advantage Russia has in the Donbas region.
The UK announced that it will unilaterally introduce legislation to change trade arrangements for Northern Ireland.
Although Boris Johnson's government is probably hoping that it's parliament will vote it away, so it can claim it has tried, this is a dangerous game to play, since it risks a trade war with the EU at a time when Europe should not be divided.
Hearings in the US confirmed once more that the storming of the capitol on January 6 2021 was a conscious decision by a radicalized group of Qanon inspired Republicans.
The group - edged on by the then president Donald Trump who choose to believe a alternative reality - tried to enforce a narrative in which everybody loves the most divisive president in the modern history of the US, despite acknowledging that so called Republican RINO's probably would not vote for Trump. In this unlikely scenario the Republican party would have to win over big amounts of Democratic voters, something so unlikely that it borders onto the bizarre in America's flawed duopoly. Instead of facing the reality, this group and especially president Trump choose to reject the voter rejection, and clang on to wild fantasies about voter fraud, which all turned out dead leads when presented in court or simply faced with facts on the ground.
The COVID19 Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5 are quickly becoming dominant in the western countries, sparking fear of a new pandemic.
Although these variant can partially evade build up immunity, it is unlikely that any Omicron will lead to mass hospitalization, since the original Omicron already caused no significant hospitalizations, and variants have only become more contagious but especially less harmful. Omicron has simply taken its place among other indigenous viruses in the human ecosystem.
The battle in Ukraine for Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk continues, were Russian troops have taken most of the city of Sieverodonetsk and are inching closer to cutting off both cities.
Ukraine meanwhile is running out of Soviet stock and relying more and more on Western supplied arms, while Russia's dictator Putin claims that Europe will turn around and become a customer of Russia's oil and gas in the future. He also made comparisons to his actions and Peter the Great, insisting that invading other countries was simply the Russian empire taking back was is rightfully his, a statement that leaves no doubt about the reason why this war is fought.
Iran has announced it will remove IAEA's nuclear facility monitoring cams.
This after the IAEA found nuclear material on 3 undeclared places, which casts doubt on Iranian claims that it is not working on building a nuclear bomb. Iran also announced it will speed up nuclear enrichment, which will no doubt be seen as a signal by Israel that Iran is working on a nuclear bomb, which it sees as a mortal threat. Saudi Arabia reportedly also seeks assistance from Pakistan to gain nuclear weapons to counter a Iranian threat.
The US's non-military civil war shows no sign of ending.
The last action that both the Republican party and the Democratic Party agreed on was helping Ukraine. Current rhetoric seems to suggest that the Republicans have almost completely embraced Donald Trump's victim thinking, in which they are both the best, and always the victim of nefarious plots, including widespread voter fraud.
The Russian army has effectively sealed off the Ukrainian city of Sieverodonetsk,
The only highway that is still in Ukrainian hands is routinely being shelled, making it practically impassable.
Airports in Europe and Canada continue to have staffing shortages and subsequently have to cancels flights.
It's faster to fire people than to hire them.
Part of Shanghai is back into lockdown. 2.7 Million people in Shanghai's Minhang district are back in full lockdown, while Beijing has also closed down non-essential venues in selected districts.
Indonesian's navy is asking for bribes to release ships that it detains outside its waters.
A tanker that was supposedly anchored illegally in Indonesian waters close to Singapore was detained, and Indonesian naval officers are asking for $375,000 to release it. This while the official fine is at most $13,840. Apparently it happened a dozen time before in 2021 as well, but the bribe was then "only" $300,000. There seems to be very little difference between Somalian pirates, and the Indonesian Navy.
Thailand has legalized the growing of cannabis and keeping cannabis in possession.
It has also legalized its consumption in certain food and drinks, provided the amount of THC is not higher than 0.2% in an effort to promote the safe use of CBD oil. For a country notorious for its harsh prison sentences for drug offenses this is a big step.
Micro-plastics have been found in snow in Antarctica.
It underscores the need to completely ban the use of micro-plastics in consumer products.
Russia claims it will allow ships to transport grains from Ukraine to the Middle East.
Russia claims that this is now not possible because of Ukrainian minefields. Earlier it offered to allow food exports from Ukraine to prevent widespread hunger if the West would remove sanctions on Russia, and later it claimed that grains could be transported through Belarus if sanctions on that country are lifted. This after it bombed rail bridges between Ukraine to Romania several times to prevent train transports, and destroyed the second biggest grain terminal in Ukraine with a missile.
Ukraine is warning its citizen that the coming winter will be very difficult, as city-heating is still broken in many places due to the war.
Ukraine also claims that Russia has lost more than 31500 soldiers and more then 1393 tanks. More than 212 aircraft plus 177 helicopters have been destroyed as well. If we include the likely number of soldiers who have been wounded then it suggests that Russia has lost between 49% and 63% of the fighting power of its original army, which are staggering losses. Ukraine though is also loosing more than 3000 soldiers per month, with approx 6000 injured, which suggest that Ukraine has at least 30000 soldiers who are dead, or not able to fight anymore.
Heavy fighting between Russia and Ukraine is still going on in the Ukrainian Donbas city of Sieverodonetsk, with Russia still having the upper hand.
The Russian army is trying to encircle the Ukrainian troops in the region, while Ukraine is trying to advance in the Kherson region, and has stepped up guerrilla attacks in occupied areas.
Another caravan of approx 5000 people has started in Southern Mexico towards the United States.
The US Republican Party and its propaganda arm Fox News have systematically been de-humanizing migrants to energize its voter base, and will use this to dial up the volume to its max. The people in the march are mostly from Venezuela, Cuba and Central American states such as El Salvador which has seen a record number of killings last month leading parliament to declare a state of emergency.
Shanghai reported another 8 new COVID19 cases that were locally transmitted, 6 days after declaring the end of the lockdowns.
It reported 21 new cases on Sunday. Most lockdowns have ended, but a negative PCR test is required for most public activities, such as using public transport, and other restrictions still remain. Restaurants, cinemas and gyms are still closed, gatherings remain banned, shops must operate at 75% capacity and masks are still obligatory.
no news
Heavy fighting is still going on in the Ukrainian Donbas city of Sieverodonetsk.
Western countries are continuing to add sanctions on Russia and keep on supporting Ukraine with money and heavy weapons.
no significant news
Airport delays have been reported all over Western Europe as the holly-day season is starting out in earnest.
Pent up desire for holidays not consumed during the 2 COVID19 years have lead to a high demand for travel abroad, while airports have laid off staff the last two years to cut costs.
Yemen has announced the continuation of the fragile truce between the warring parties as the country is facing a potential mass starvation as 1 million refugees are locked up in Marib city due to a blockade by Houthi forces who intent to capture the city due to its strategic role in Yemen's oil industry.
The war in Yemen is a forgotten war since Saudi Arabia's role in its continuation negates any change that the US or China will interfere, while none of the warring parties have worldwide sympathy, strategic importance or a popular media presence. Worldwide opinion seems to be that it is fine if a Shia Houthi group backed by Iran with the slogan "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam" fights a Sunni Al-Qaeda party backed by Saudi Arabia that still has a form of slavery.
Inflation worldwide is starting to fall, while OPEC+ announced it will increase its oil output by 50%.
Higher interest rates by central banks, combined with global pessimism about economic growth and geopolitical tensions have killed the buzz that was created by the opening up of economies and the huge financial stimulus. The world is now facing a economic hangover, which will likely lead to a economic depression, but not a recession, provided the geopolitical tension does not get out of hand.
Heavy fighting is continuing in the Ukrainian Donbas city of Sieverodonetsk.
Russia is continuing to slowly advance inside the city center, while Ukraine is making slow progress in the Kherson region. Russia is continuing shelling in the Kharkiv region, indicative of its intent to capture this city as well, while the rest of Ukraine is free of fighting. Ukraine admitted that as many as 100 of its soldiers die every day, with close to 300 being injured in what has become a war of attrition.
no significant news
All deposits have been frozen of 4 banks in Henan, China.
It appears that the banks employees have lend the money to dodgy internet investment schemes such as Evergrande's "wealth management products". In a country were it is not uncommon for companies to buy banks to work around loan requirements this should not come as a shock. A unnamed CBIRC official was quoted last week as saying that "accumulated risks in some regions are relatively large", suggesting that more big bank failures are on the way.
China's COVID19 Omicron outbreak is continuing, despite rhetoric from Beijing that it will lift lockdowns in June.
Zhengzhou has entered a citywide lockdown after 14 new cases were found, Shanghai is continuing to find new cases and remains in lockdown, and even Beijing has found at least 1 new case outside the quarantined area's leading to new temporary restrictions.
Heavy fighting is continuing in the Ukrainian Donbas city Sieverodonetsk.
The Ukrainian army is taking significant loses, which will hamper the offensive it has planned in June, and which has already started in the Kherson region. Russia is reinforcing its troops in the Donbas region with old tank from its strategic stocks, as it has mostly run out of modern material.
The leader of Israeli far-right Otzma Yehudit party has entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound with a large following helped by the Israeli police.
The extreme far right in Israel wants to replace the ancient Islam Dome of the Rock with a Jewish temple. This while the larger Jerusalem liberation day has also led to tensions.
The war in Ukraine continues with Russia in the driving seat, trying to finish cutting off Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk, but making little to no progress on other fronts.
Meanwhile Russia has warned NATO against providing Ukraine with longer range weapons, calling it a "unacceptable escalation", while the US announced it will do just that, by sending MLRS systems. The US also stepped up manufacturing of new stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
According to the Daily NK - a site run by journalists who fled North Korea, and financed by the US - North Korea's dictator Kim Jong Un gave a speech in which he declared that North Korea would use it's nuclear weapons not just for defense, but also for attack, and whenever it feels it's fundamental interests are at stake.
Considering North Korea's bad record in unprovoked shelling of islands and fishing boats, this is not a good sign if true. According to Daily NK a person they interviewed in NK declared that: "he felt glad that the North Korean leader had the guts to declare before the world that North Korea would boldly make offensive use of its nuclear weapons".
A new Intifada in Israel seems likely as a Jewish extremist religious march has gained permission to go through the Arab religious quarters.
Hamas already declared this could lead to a new war. Tensions are especially high after Israeli security forces murdered a deeply beloved Palestine journalist in cold blood and used excessive violence against visitors of the Al-Aqsa Mosque at the end of the Ramadan festival earlier this month.
Shanghai is still in COVID19 lockdown, while Beijing has switched to a Western style, partial lockdown, in which people are required to work from home, non-essentials are closed, and non-vaccinated people are barred from public spaces and transport. It has also stepped up incentive programs to get older people vaccinated.
Meanwhile North Korea is following the old Chinese play-book of useless virtue signaling and draconian lockdowns. It is testing garbage and public water bodies such as lakes for COVID and disinfecting UV-drenched streets, while barricading people inside their homes without any food, leading to reports that more than 47 families starved to death in their houses. There is a severe shortage of medicine except for some herbs that mostly act as a placebo. The medicine that are available are just fever suppressors such as Paracetamol and people are told to gargle with salt water as medicine. Regional party committees are holding emergency meetings to force party members to donate food and medicine with dictator Kim Jong Un forced to set an example by donating his household supplies to quarantine centers which are short of food, and have no medicine at al. Food shortages are set to get much worse, since the lockdowns have disrupted the normal planting season (students and soldiers are forced to work in the field since North Korea does not have mechanized farming). Most COVID-testing is temperature based, which obviously fails to detect a-symptomatic cases, shattering any hope of quickly containing the Omicron outbreak.
The slow motion real-estate crash in China continues, with poster-child Evergrande proposing a deal to foreign bond holders.
The deal would convert all bonds in long term bonds, or allow a partial conversion in shares of it's companies. Since China wants to stop more foreign money outflows - and a failure to pay the relative small amount of foreign debt would endanger the whole bond market in China - it is unlikely that bond-holders will agree to this proposal, especially considering that Evergrande still has almost the amount it owns foreign bond-holders in assets outside China which could be confiscated by the foreign bond-holders. Evergrande, the most indebted company in the history of the world, claims it can pay of it's 300 billion dollar debt by selling electric cars, even though it has never sold even a single car. It also reported that the number of houses sold has almost halved, and that is including houses that have already been ordered before the real-estate crash, but which are only now delivered.
The power-struggle in Pakistan between the nationalistic populist former PM Imran Khan, and the traditional economic and military oligarchy continues, with the government forbidding the Azadi March and using heavy handed police actions and blockades to prevent the march from reaching its goal.
The march - which had a lower then expected turnout - turned violent in several cities, after Khan called upon his supporters and "all Pakistanis" to take to the street with the Pakistani flag and "battle for real freedom", break down barriers, and go to blockade parliament in this "defining moment" for Pakistan, despite a supreme court ruling assigning another location in the capitol. The government claims that protesters were trying to storm the parliament and is asking its Supreme Court to seeking contempt proceedings against Khan for violating court orders.
The Azadi March has been disbanded for now by Khan, who set a new ultimatum of 6 days for new elections to be called.
Khan - who tried to overthrow the decision of parliament, and used his supporters to create chaos and anarchy and called upon them to break down police barricades - claimed that the government is trying to take the nation towards anarchy and that it is trying to create a divide between the nation and the police. He further claimed that when his caravan reaches its destination, the police would "come to realize" that his mission is about "jihad and not politics". He also called upon women and children to come out of their homes for "real independence", claiming that the current government was a "imported government".
The negotiations with Iran to stop its nuclear weapon program has hit a dead end, with US president Biden refusing to take the Iranian Revolutionary Guard off its terrorist entities list.
Meanwhile Israel is actively killing engineers, Revolutionary Guards leaders, and sabotaging research centers and plants in Iran.
Russia has gone on the offensive on the whole front-line in Ukraine, and making progress in cutting off Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk.
It had to wait until enough spare tanks were shipped by train to Melitopol before starting today, which gives an indication of the shortages of material Russia is facing.
Russia has claimed it will allow ships to carry grain through the Black Sea, although it is not clear what this means in practise.
This while countries all over the world are banning the export of food commodities, like sugar, grain and palm oil to keep domestic prices low, and quell unrest.
China is looking to extend the Solomon Islands model to other islands in the Pacific.
It has send a draft communique along with a 5 year plan to 10 Pacific islands ahead of a meeting in Fiji in which China will do police training and police collaboration, which would include Solomon style stationing of Chinese police forces to protect Chinese minorities on the islands, and other Chinese business interests.
China's new Mao, Xi Jinping defended the butchering and locking up of people, by claiming that that's the way they do it in China because of cultural differences and that it is for the benefit of the majority of the Chinese people.
He never cares to explain how it is that other countries in the region, such as Japan, South Korea, and last but not least Taiwan manage to have a better development, higher standard of living, and high income per capita, despite threading their citizen as humans. He also refrained the common propaganda line that any criticism of China's policies are just a stick to hit it with. The talk was in the context of the UN chief trip to China where she will be given a closed loop pre-planed propaganda tour in Xinjiang.
The meeting of the Quad in Japan has ended.
North Korea used this moment to fire a couple of missiles, - including a long range missile missile - while the Russian and Chinese militaries carried out threatening joint exercises near Japanese airspace in what can only be described as giving the alliance The finger. For good measure China also decided to hold extra drills near Taiwan. It is possible that the US - if it concludes that war is inevitable - will actively takes steps to provoke China in attacking Taiwan, while it's military can still beat China's. The same calculation by Germany lead to WWI.
Hungary's illiberal strong-man Orban effectively did a coup, by declaring a new state of emergency.
He can now rule by degree. The same was done at the beginning of the corona-crisis, but since that ended his party needed a new excuse, and passed a new constitutional amendment allowing for the declaration of a state of emergency when armed conflicts or disasters are taking place in neighbouring countries.
The leaders of the Quad, the military alliance of the US, Japan, India and Australia made a concerted statement that "unilateral change to the status quo" is not acceptable.
Which was a confirmation of the statements yesterday by US president Biden that the Quad will not sit idle if China decides to invade Taiwan. The fact that they feel the need to emphasize this again is disturbing. In the Third Taiwan Crisis the US stationed 2 aircraft carriers to protect Taiwan , but wishful magical thinking in China is rampant.
Russia has restarted the offensive in the Donbas region, and has taken the village Svitlodarsk and managed a breakthrough near the village Vasylivka. It is close to surrounding the city of Lysychansk.
Meanwhile Ukraine claims there was a assassination attempt on Putin after the start of the war. Supposedly by actors from the Caucasus.
US president Biden has again confirmed that the US would defend Taiwan if China were to invade it.
The consensus in China is that the US just uses Taiwan as stick to hit China with, and would not send soldiers to die for Taiwan, despite it doing exactly that in the Vietnam and Korea wars.
Pakistan's ousted Prime Minister Khan has asked his supporters to march the capital on Wednesday.
He wants to blockade parliament until it agrees to call for new elections. Khan reiterated his believe that the US conspired to kick him out for collaborating with China and Russia.
Monkey-pox has spread endemic in the unsafe sex gay scenes in Europe and the US.
Since the transmission rate is really slow, treatment options and vaccines are available it is unlikely to become a pandemic, although it could become an endemic sexual disease. Also: transmission will halt immediately if people at sex parties use condoms when having anal sex.
No news
Russia finally got control of the whole of Mariupol.
The last Ukrainian fighters of the infamous Azov brigade have surrendered after assurances from the UN and Red Cross.
Shanghai and Beijing are still suffering under a complete and partial lockdown, due to China's Zero COVID policy.
And in North Korea, Omicron is raging out of control, but the fatality should be limited due to the lack of obese people in North Korea.
Sri Lanka has defaulted on its debts.
This opens the way for the IMF to step in, and will also show how much Chinese debt is on its books.
No significant news
North Korea has no Medicine, no anti-viral, no corona-test-kits, no doctors, no vaccines, no facilities - but luckily also no obesity - for dealing with the COVID19 outbreak which has now infected several million people in North Korea.
It does not even have enough masks, which is why the border guards have been forced to use gas masks for quite a while. It also reuses needles, and uses beer bottles for IV fluid.
The US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testified to the US Senate Committee on Armed Services that the threat posed by China to Taiwan from now until 2030 is critical or acute.
"It's our view that they [China] are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention" .. "I think it's fair to say that it [the threat] is critical, or acute".
Parts of Pakistan, Iran and especially India are already facing temperatures that come close to deadly wet-bulb temperatures.
In India there is a shortage of air conditioners, and the deep poverty in Pakistan and India makes it unlikely that people will not die in extreme heat-waves. India has announced it will continue building new coal power plants until at least 2050, and Pakistan just tried to get Russia to build a pipe-line for gas from - climate change induced wildfire torched - Siberia to Pakistan.
A Ukrainian member of parliament involved in negotiations about the remaining fighters in Mariupol who surrendered gave a interview in the NY Times in which she stated that there was no deal about prisoner exchange with Russia.
Instead there were only assurances from the UN and the Red Cross that the soldiers sent to Russian territory would be all right.
According to the Ukrainian military Russia has switched from offensive to defensive mode in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, and is building fortifications. It also withdrew its forces from most parts of the Kharkiv region.
Russia is still trying to annex as much territory as it can in the Donbas region. Meanwhile Ukraine has started several counter-offensives and guerrilla fighters have taken out Russian generals in Russian occupied Melitopol.
Sri Lanka farmers are reporting reduced harvests.
Due to lack of fertilizers - because of the Sri Lanka government strategy - harvests are reported as low as 1/10 of normal harvests, setting the stage for famine and poverty in the winter.
According to the Wall Street Journal China Eastern Flight 5735, which crashed on March 21 was due to a suicide.
It reports that data from the black box indicates that somebody explicitly steered the plane strait down into the ground.
US president Biden has announced that it will send troops to failed state Somalia.
Somalia does not exist as a state, and only has control over its capital Mogadishu. Without the support of soldiers of the AU it would fall within a day. The US is likely assuming that dealing with the fallout of the collapse of another failed state is more costly then sending troops.
Sri Lanka is facing a complete breakdown as it's petrol stocks are expected to run out today due to a shortage of foreign currency.
The country is bankrupt due to corrupt & opaque loans from China to build white elephant projects. China is unwilling to take a haircut, and no country is willing to loan Sri Lanka money if it is not transparent over its hidden contracts with China.
Mali's dictatorship has let known that it experienced an attempted coup d'etat last week.
Assimi Goita, the leader of the 2020 and 2021 coup d'etat, accused others of trying a counter coup d'etat, which would be the 4th coup d'etat since the civil war in 2012/2013.
264 soldiers of the last defenders of the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works complex in Mariupol, Ukraine have surrendered .
They have done this after negotiation between Kiev and Moscow, on the condition that they will be exchanged with Russian prisoners of war, and monitored by UN inspectors. The other approx. 300 Ukrainian troops have also been ordered to surrender.
It appears that Russia has withdrawn its forces from the Kharkiv region.
Russia is now accepting that plan B is also a bridge to far, although it is still fighting heavily in the Kherson region, trying to break out to Odessa, even though it should be clear by now that that is completely unreachable. It is now "just" going for control of the Donbas and Kherson region, and will likely try to dig in, which it should have done in the first place, instead of sacrificing material and soldiers in Kharkiv, Kherson and in trying to surround Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. Russia is still not coming to terms with how bad its army is, and is now blaming its generals, laying the groundwork for yet another dagger-in-the-back myth. In reality Russian oligarch Oleg Tinkov was right when he said "how will the army be good, if everything else in the country is shit and mired in nepotism, sycophancy and servility?", aka: "shit country, shit army", since reports of corruption, incompetence and cronyism in Russian society and especially in its army have been rampant.
Ukraine claims Russia has lost more than 27500 soldiers, more then 1220 tanks and more then 5884 armored vehicles, artilleries, etc. More than 200 aircraft plus 165 helicopters have been destroyed as well.
The earlier estimates of the size of the Russian army was approx. 150000 soldiers, and 2840 tanks. If we consider the number of wounded as twice the amount of the number of death, and the number of tanks destroyed also as a proxy for how much usable material Russia has left, then that would mean that between 42% and 60% of the original Russian army has been destroyed. The army groups have been augmented by material from deep storage and local conscripts, but it is likely that the quality of the army has deeply decreased, and the employability of Russian deep stocks is in general low. BTG army groups now seem to have around 500 to 600 soldiers instead of the 900 to 1000 they are suppose to have. Notice though that the rate of destruction has decreased, suggesting that Russia is slowly learning, and getting much more defensive.
Finland has officially declared that it want to join NATO, with Sweden immediately behind it.
Turkey used the situation to threaten to veto accession unless Sweden and Finland outlaw Kurdish organizations in those countries despite the fact that most NATO countries would rather have Sweden and Finland in NATO than autocratic Turkey. Russia has blocked power connections to Finland, and claims accession to NATO will not lead to a nuclear free Baltic Sea area, conveniently forgetting that it is Russia that is stationing large amounts of nukes in Kaliningrad, not other countries.
India has banned exports of grains amid concerns that its harvest will be lower then expected due to a climate change induced heat-wave.
This on top of the high grain prices due to the war in Ukraine.
All economic warning signs world-wide are flashing red.
Unemployment numbers are up in the US. GDP growth became negative in the UK. Housing markets in the US and China are showing reversals. Stock markets worldwide are dropping. Crypto bubbles are popping. Youth unemployment is up in China, and record number of people are layed-off in it's tech companies. Hong Kong and Shanghai report negative growth. Inflation has locked itself into loan demands, which means its effects will propagate through the economy for some time. Interests rates are going up worldwide to fight inflation, causing economic cool-downs.
North Korea, the country that always tries to prove life can be more miserable, has announced it has had a COVID19 outbreak a month ago which is still spreading and growing exponentially.
According to the country that is always lying it has had more 350 thousand symptomatic cases, and a unknown number of a-symptomatic cases. South Korea has announced it will send vaccines and medical supplies if North Korea wants to receive them.
The slow motion train-crash that is China's real-estate sector continues, with developer Sunac China failing to make bond payments.
It also clarified that it does not expect to be able to do so in the future. It joins other defaulted developers such as Evergrande, Kaisa, Logan and Zhongliang.
The Philippines has elected Ferdinand "Bong bong" Marcos Jr as new president.
Without any doubt he will crash the country into the nearest tree, rob it blind and try to install himself as a dictator, just like his notorious father & mother did.
Terra and Tether two so called Stable Coins, have lost their peg to the US Dollar, signaling that investors who are hoping to get rich by gambling that a greater fool will buy their monopoly money in the future are starting to believe that stable-coins are just a modern day incarnation of Wildcat Banks.
Since Terra and Tether are mostly - if at all - backed by Bitcoin, they are selling more bitcoins in order to keep restore the peg, which is helping to crash Bitcoin as well. The reason Terra lost its peg is that people found out that the earlier failed Basis Cash was founded by the same person as Terra. The reason Tether was falling is that it is a open secret that it's backing is at best in Bitcoins, but more likely mostly non-existent. Every time Bitcoin drops, Bitfinex buys Bitcoin with freshly printed Tether, to pomp its price, and keeps the Bitcoin value on its books as backing for its Tether.
The biggest crypto currency exchange, Coinbase is warning that not only is it seeing huge outflows of money and users, but that any crypto asset it holds for its customers are not in name, which means that in the case of a default, its users would simply be unsecured creditors.
Expect a bank run on Coinbase in the next couple of days, and a new crypto-winter or the end of the crypto monopoly-money fantasy. Margin calls can completely implode Bitcoin if it goes below USB $21.000,- . In related news: BitPrime, a minor crypto trading platform has gone bankrupt, and bonds of El Salvador are trading at a 40% discount due to it adopting Bitcoin as official currency.
Russia is stuck in Ukraine, and the Kremlin has no ideas of what to do next. It can't go forward, but is afraid of moving backwards.
The second plan, which was to capture the Donbas and whole Black Sea coastline including Odessa is not going anywhere either. The Kremlin is not willing or afraid to escalate further, as evidenced by emphasis from the Kremlin that no nuclear weapons will be used, and the lack of a full mobilization or declaration of war on May the 9th. It is also useless to mobilize huge amounts of conscripts if they do not have the heavy weapons and experience to use them. They would just die a useless dead in the trench-warfare in the Donbas. The Kremlin's propaganda is no longer trying to win over foreign audiences, but is now only focused on its own domestic audience. Russia is playing for time while it is trying to figure out what to do next.
Expectations are high in China over future collaboration with ASEAN members, with over 90% of Chinese reportedly considering the China-ASEAN ties as friendly.
This could lead to big disappointments, since most ASEAN countries are weary of China's maritime claims in the South China Sea, and other areas, and were outrightly shocked by China's brazen efforts to annex those area using it's Maritime Militia and Coast-guard. If China's love for ASEAN is not returned, it will blame the US for this, since it always blames the US for everything, and somehow misses the fact that it is not smart to reward an ally such Philippines president Duterte by increasing military pressure and intimidation, undermining their domestic position, and forcing them back to the US for protection.
The UK just announced that it wants to get rid of the Northern Ireland protocol, which is the basis of the Brexit agreement with the EU.
If the UK moves ahead with this, and legal proceedings go nowhere, then the EU and the UK would be forced to put border guards in place between Northern Ireland and Ireland, which would be the end of the Good Friday accords, leading to potential new violence and a referendum on joining Ireland.
Russia's dictator Putin has given a new speech, in which he claims that Russia had no choice but to invade Ukraine.
Wife-beater Russia is again claiming that if he had not beaten his wife, she might hit him, despite the fact that he is 6 times bigger and stronger than her, and he hit her twice before, while she never hit him back. The wife-beater also claims that her trying to run away from him to NATO for protection is an act of aggression from her against him.
No significant news
Sri Lanka has again declared a state of emergency.
This because of ongoing protests against continuing economic troubles.
The Russian frigate Admiral Makarov has been taken out by a Ukrainian anti-ship missile.
It is really remarkable that Russia continues to loose ships against a military that has no marine, and almost no air-force. Russia has now lost 11 ships, including its flagship.
The World is facing stagnating economic growth.
This is due to several factors, including geo-political tensions, inflation, economic uncoupling and Zero-COVID policy in China, as well as the popping of real-estate bubbles, especially in China. Changes are that the downturn will be very limited, and more akin to a couple of years of stagnation then to a full blown recession.
Omicron cases in Shanghai keep on going down and up again despite the still ongoing draconian lockdowns in which people are literally jailed in their houses. In Beijing cases are also not dropping, despite partial lockdowns, massive testing closing of public transport and all non-essentials.
As usual in China the orders from above are deeply politicized and beyond questioning. Therefore any lack of result must be because of weakness, corruption, or someone trying to make the government look bad. And therefore the only answer can be a more draconian enforcement of the rules.
The man who received the first ever xeno-transplant but died after a couple of months, probably did so because of herpes virus that was found in the pig, and found later in the patient as well.
How it was possible that a specially bread pig got this virus in the first place is not known, but should be something that can easily be avoided.
The Azovstal Iron and Steel Works complex held by the last remnants of the infamous Azov regiment in Mariupol, Ukraine is about to fall.
While Kiev has confirmed that it is planning a counter-offensive to push out Russian troops before the middle of June.
No significant news
The Russian offensive in Ukraine has stalled.
According to the US, Russia has 93 BTG's in the field, but according to the UK more then 25% of them are not effectively deployable. In good conditions a BTG has +/- 1000 soldiers. This would mean that Russia has far less then 70.000 soldiers in the field against approx 40.000 Ukraine soldiers. In normal situations you need 3x as many soldier attacking then defending, which is clearly not reachable for Russia. Ukraine is also getting more heavy weapons by the day, and will very soon be in the position when it can do a counter-push to take back lost terrain. Russia's military strategy of pushing the enemy in kill-zones with tanks ('wall of iron'), and then destroying them on the anvil with heavy artillery ('the hammer') only works if they have enough equipment such as tanks, which will soon not be the case anymore. Conscripts can't compensate for the loss of material.
Russia has not given up trying to take Odessa, and is continuing actions in Southern Ukraine to work towards that goal.
It also let know that Russia will not try to complete its "Ukraine operation" by Victory Day on May the 9th, in a tacit acknowledgement that its second attempt is also not going as planned. Russia appears to want to reduce Ukraine to the areas that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth had in Ukraine in the 17th century.
The US has difficulty producing enough arms to deal with demand for its weapons around the world.
The Stinger stocks in the US won't be replenished before 2024, and a replacement won't be ready before 2028, a order of 70 F-16's to Taiwan can only be delivered in 2026, F-22 have not been made in more then a decade, and restarting production is close to impossible while there are only 186 instead of the original planned 750, aerial refueling planes for Israel take much longer than expected, Javelin stocks are running out, 40 howitzers for Taiwan can only be delivered in 2026. And more orders are expected as European countries are increasing their spending, as well as countries in the SEA regions such as Japan, Australia and eventually New Zealand.
The Russian army believes that Russia is fighting an all-out war against NATO through Ukraine, and that Russia should therefore also declare war on Ukraine, including full mobilization.
It is likely to announce all out war on the 9th of May, including the mobilization of reserves. The Russian army top seriously believes that it's horrendously bad performance in Ukraine has nothing to do with the army itself, or the will of people to create their own destiny, but is only due to bad intelligence of the FSB's 5th Service department. As usual the illusion of empire is getting otherwise normal people to act with total disregard for human lives.
COVID19 / Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-versions are capable of re-infecting people who have anti-bodies against Omicron, which could lead to a new global Corona wave.
Just as the flu comes and goes every year, new versions of Corona are expected to part of the seasonal flu, which will infect people without causing major illness.
The Financial Times reports that China regulator held a emergency meeting on April 22, with domestic and foreign banks to discuss how to deal with NATO imposed sanctions.
It is not known why China would be worried enough about that to hold a emergency meeting. There are no indications that China is preparing to invade Taiwan in the short term.
Xi Jinping, China's dictator, smothered any hope for the Chinese economy, after Fridays statements announced broad stimulus support, by stating that any investment can only be allowed if it is strictly in accordance with what the CCP thinks are good investments.
Quotes from Xi : "investors should be educated and guided to practice China's core socialist values and walk the right way". "We will unswervingly follow the road of common prosperity for all the people". "By its nature, capital pursues profits, and if it is not regulated and restrained, it will bring immeasurable harm to economic and social development".
Russia's 2nd invasion plan of Ukraine is also not going according to plan, and Putin has dispatched trusted General Valery Gerasimov - who ran the first bad invasion plan with Putin and Shoigu from the Kremlin - to see what the situation is on the ground, while armchair generals in Russia are calling for a declaration of war and a full mobilization.
The second invasion plan was suppose to have been finished on the 9th of May, with a victory parade in Mariupol, with full control of the Donbas region, and the Ukrainian army pushed back or surrounded/destroyed. There was also suppose to be progress around Odessa, with the Black Sea coast under control, and the city at least surrounded. The armchair generals are calling for Russia to stop fighting with one hand behind its back, and declare full war, which allows for the mobilization of more conscripts. The problem is that Russia Is already fighting with everything it has short of nuclear strikes, and is loosing badly. Sending lightly armed and badly trained conscripts to overrun WW1 style trenches will not lead to a magical victory, but to more Russian body bags.
Ukraine claims that Russia has deployed many troops in its attempt to break-through in Izyum, but that much of those have now been destroyed. According to its military Russia lost in total more than 23000 soldiers, more then 986 tanks, more then 2852 armored vehicles, artilleries, etc, and also more than 189 aircraft plus 155 helicopters have been destroyed.
The earlier estimates of the size of the Russian army was approx. 150000 soldiers, and 2840 tanks. If we consider the amount of wounded as at least twice the amount of the number of death, then that would mean that between 35% and 46% of the original Russian army has been destroyed. Although Russia can replace professional soldiers with conscripts, it has no deep stocks of actually working material. If it has lost most of its tanks and other material in Ukraine, then there will be nothing to replace it in the sort run. If truth, then it will be forced to switch to a defensive strategy in less then 4 weeks.
According to Reuters, Chinese strategists are studying how China should avoid the problems that Russia had in invading Ukraine, and how to deal with Western responses, including weapons aid and international sanctions when invading Taiwan. Reuters claims its sources are two scholars and four Asian and Western diplomats who are in touch with Chinese strategists.
It is notable that China is openly discussing how to invade Taiwan, not if it should do it. The "If" is only optional for China if Taiwan surrenders, which seems highly unlikely after it saw what happened to Hong Kong. It is also notable that the Chinese planners consensus is that the US will - just as in Ukraine - only provide weapons to Taiwan, despite the fact that every US president left no doubt in diplomatic channels that they would actively defend Taiwan against a unprovoked Chinese attack.
China is pulling all the levers it has in an attempt to stimulate the economy, even going as far as allowing "harmful" sectors of the economy such as gaming, micro-loans and other IT related "spiritual opium" companies to operate and expand again.
It might even (shock, horror) decide in the future that private education can be allowed again. China does not believe in capitalism, but in centralization versus de-centralization. A strong emperor, means less corruption, harmony and peace, while a weak emperor means more un-enlightened animal spirits, more instability, unrest and separatism, but also more economic growth. Loosening the reigns is a tacit acknowledgement that the economy is in a bad shape, and needs all the support it can get.
The war in Ukraine continues with fighting in the Kherson region, where Russia is trying to expand toward Odessa, as well as around Izyum and the areas Northern of Mariupol, where the Russian army is trying to do a pincer movement around Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. All without success, but Ukraine is warning that the couple of weeks will be very difficult as Russia is preparing to launch a large scale attack.
Meanwhile Russia is claiming that arm deliveries to Ukraine are threatening the security of Europe, while the US and European countries are stepping up arm deliveries, believing that Russia's invasion, killing of it's people and attempted annexation of parts of Europe are a threat to the security of Europe. Russia has announced that the Russian Ruble will become the official currency in the Kherson region, and China has announced the dropping of tariffs on Russian coal, while still keeping import bans on Australian coal intact.
Central African Republic (CAR), has adopted Bitcoin as an official currency, despite the fact that most of it's population can't read and only approx. 3% of it population has a internet connection.
It has the second-lowest level of human development, the lowest inequality-adjusted Human Development Index score, and is unhealthiest country on earth, as well as the worst country in which to be young. More than 4% of its population is HIV positive, and almost none get anti-virus. It support Russia in its drive to "liberate Ukraine", and it's only real export is animal parts. The country has 80 ethnic groups, speaking 80 different languages, and has been in almost constant internal war since it's independence in 1957.
UNICEF is reporting that the number of cases of measles is on the rise in Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia and Nigeria.
Not coincidently these are all failed states mired in conflict or outright war.
China has started lockdowns in Beijing, in ao. Chaoyang district to stop the spread of COVID19 / Omicron, while denying that it has started lockdowns.
In these "Temporary Control Areas" schools, shops, restaurants, entertainment venues and stadiums are closed, and people are not allowed to leave their "residential estates".
Iran and China announced further defense cooperation during a visit of China's defense minister in Tehran, Iran's capital.
Iran has also denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine as the fault of the US and Ukraine itself, and has started accession as a full member of the SCO in September 2021. The SCO is China's preferred vehicle of slow influence as a counter to the US, NATO lead Pax Americana, even though it's members have hugely different and conflicting ambitions.
The airplane crash of Egypt-Air flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo in 2016 has been caused by the cigarette of a smoking pilot.
A confidential French BEA forensic rapport used in a lawsuit in France was leaked to a Italian newspaper, and details that incorrect maintenance of the co-pilot emergency oxygen mask caused a explosion ignited by a cigarette of the smoking pilot. At the time Egyptian contributed the disaster to terrorists, and have since then prevented the release of the report.
No significant news
No significant news
Russia has started the new Southern Ukraine offensive for real.
It is engaging Ukraine over the entire front-line with tanks and everything else it has. This despite it not managing to capture the last hold-outs in Mariupol, and thus freeing up troops. It seems that in less then 2 weeks the big battles will be over. If Russia does not manage to capture what it wants, and dig in, it will become problematic for Russia.
The US Navy wants to have a new Hyper-sonic Anti-Ship Cruise Missile ready by 2028.
This Hyper-sonic Air-Launched Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare missile ( HALO ) should be seen as part of the Rapid Dragon program, designed to be launched in big numbers from far away, and should not be intercept-able because of its high speed. This program is specificity to counter a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan with not only its normal fleet of 500+ warships, but also the thousands of ships of China's Maritime Militia.
Panic buying is breaking out in Beijing as people expect Shanghai style COVID lockdowns and associated food shortages.
This could be the beginning of the end of China's Zero COVID policy, as the CCP is never happy to eat them-self what they proscribe to others, but for now it has started mass-testing in Beijing, and has switched to using metal fences in Shanghai - since people were destroying the plastic ones - in another episode of : "no matter what the problem is, the CCP responds by jailing people".
Russia is preparing to attack Odessa, even though there is no sign that it's land forces are capable of even remotely getting close to it.
This while Russian forces are trying to actively capture the last defensive works still held by Ukraine in Mariupol, while the rest of the fighting is subdued due to the Orthodox Easter festival.
The Corona variant Omicron has become endemic in Beijing, China's capital, with propaganda outlet Beijing Daily calling the outbreak "urgent and grim".
There are officially 15 symptomatic cases reported yesterday from a long ranges of different backgrounds and locations, which means that a-symptomatic cases are likely in the hundreds. In Shanghai the lockdown is still in full force, but after a earlier fall in cases the number is now rising again, leading to further speculation that the mass testing itself has become the biggest vector.
North Korea, the country that keeps on trying to prove that life can always be more miserable, is trying to puff itself up and trying to get attention with more missile-tests.
It is trying to get money and other aid by threatening, which is not working anymore since Japan, South Korea and the US are not playing along anymore. It probably will lead to a lend-lease agreement though, in which Japan and South Korea will be allowed to "borrow" hundreds of nukes, to credibly counter any nuclear threat of North Korea. This will lead to a fit in China, once the CCP realizes that these nukes can also be deployed against China. But predictably this will not lead to questioning if supporting North Korea in acquiring nuclear weapons was a good idea.
Russia's press agency TASS has confirmed that Russia intents to annex the whole Southern and Eastern parts of Ukraine, and to also link Russian occupied parts of Moldavia.
The goal of replacing the current democratically elected regime in Kiev with a puppet regime has apparently been dropped as no longer feasible.
The war in Ukraine continues, with very little change on the ground so far, while Western Countries are sending so many heavy weapons that Ukraine now has more operational tanks in Ukraine than Russia.
Russia has started using it's air-force more, and as a result has lost 2 bombers and 8 drones just yesterday. Russia has reportedly run out of long range missiles. According to the US, Russia now has 82 battle-groups (BTG) in Ukraine, which would translate into at most 82.000 troops, 820 tanks and 3.280 armored carriers if they are operating at full strength, which is not the case even in peace time. Russia had 168 BTG's in total at the start of the war, and invaded Ukraine with 120 BTG's. Time is starting to run out for Russia to create a break-thru.
No significant news
It seems that China Eastern Flight 5735, which crashed on March 21 was due to a pilot suicide.
Reasons for that is that China - instead of pointing fingers, as it usually tries to do - , has buried the case unusually quickly, while Chinese authorities are doing checks on the mental well-being of commercial aircraft pilots in the last week. There is also the fact that airplanes are designed to want to fly strait, due to fixed horizontal stabilizers, but in this case the plane dived vertically into the earth at close to the speed of sound with it's wings and its tail intact, suggesting a pilot action, or a really bizarre malfunction of the control-systems. But it is extremely unlikely that the highly experienced pilots on the plane would not have been able to deal with a malfunction of the control-systems. The fixed horizontal stabilizers make it really difficult to do a nose-dive, which is why the German pilot suicide of Flight 9525 did not do a nosedive, but crashed in the side of a mountain, which is much easier to do.
Mariupol is about to fall.
Which would be a big moral and strategical defeat for Ukraine.
Insteon, a Internet of Things solution provider has simply ceased to operate, making all Insteon equipment worthless.
Without central server and internet connection a IoT automation solution is worse then useless.
Russia has finally started the Donbas offensive according to both Russia and Ukraine. Fighting is reported over the whole Eastern and most of the South-Eastern Ukraine front-lines.
So far with no noticeable results. Continued pressure around Kherson suggests Russia still has not abandoned ambitions to take Odessa as well as annexing Transnistria, a part of Moldavia. China meanwhile emphasized its long term strategic coordination and common interests with Russia, leaving no doubt that it supports Russia unconditionally.
No significant news
Russia is bombing Kiev in retaliation for the sinking of flagship Moskva, which - according to Russia - sank because of a out of control fire, unrelated to the special action ( not a war ) in Ukraine.
It must be hard to keep all your lies and emotions straight if you're an Russian propagandist. You have to keep insisting that you are not in a war, even though the biggest ship in the southern fleet has just been sunk, and everything that can move has been wheeled into a neighboring country where it is bombing the shit out of whole towns in an effort to "free" them from the people who are living in them. You insist you are trying to help the people who are fighting to the death against you, and who have already destroyed 1/4 of the complete army you sent in there.
China is convincing itself it can invade Taiwan without armed US intervention.
The war in Ukraine has lead it to believe the US will not interfere, but only supply weapons, in what must be the worst case of wishful thinking ever. The US has made very clear on several occasions that it will.
Shanghai is facing civil unrest, such as people engaging in small scale fights against quarantine workers and small demonstrations due to growing dissatisfaction and desperation with China's draconian Zero-COVID policy.
Mao made China independent, Deng made China prosperous and Xi is taking this new sports-car and crashing it.
Russia has announced it is going to use heavy bombers to drop indiscriminate dumb bombs in Ukraine
Russia is running out of cruise missiles, and low-flying aircraft are shot down with Stingers. Ukraine will be in serious need of long range anti-aircraft missiles.
In areas in Ukraine occupied by Russia including Kherson and Skadovsk, Ukrainian flags have been replaced by Russian flags, just as local administrators have been replaced by stooges.
Russia is clearly not planning in giving up any of those area's, and is trying to permanently annex them.
The lockdowns in China continue, while the number of cases in Shanghai - a city under extreme lockdown, with no end in sight - has risen, not fallen. Suspicions are that crowed mass testing itself is helping COVID19 to spread.
Scenes straight out of a dystopian movie show people screaming that they are dying of hunger from Shanghai's skyscrapers, while other people broke curfew and looted supermarkets after a video on social media showing that while they did not have any food to eat, supermarkets were throwing away food that was spoiling due to logistical problems, leading to an explosion of popular anger. People that can't walk their dog, and/or that are afraid that the dog will be killed if a resident tests positive, are releasing them on the streets, where they are being killed by overzealous quarantine guards. People are being forcefully dragged to quarantine centers, even if they test negative due to administrative errors, which themselves have come under fire, due to overcrowding, unsanitary conditions, lack of facilities and collapsing ceilings in the rain due to shoddy construction, since China thinks it better to build new buildings, than to simply confiscate already functional venues. More people are dying due to the heavy handed lockdowns than to the virus itself, and people are more afraid of the quarantine centers than of the virus.
The Russian Black Sea fleet flagship Moskva has been hit by 2 Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles, and taken out of action due to secondary explosions.
The Neptune is a improved version of the Soviet Kh-35, developed by Ukraine. Although the Russian marine does not have the equivalent of the Dutch Goalkeeper, it does have a CIWS system, the rocket based S-125 Neva. It is unclear why it failed to take out the missiles, or why it was alone instead of operating in a battleship formation, whereby multiple vessels collaborate to provide a multi-layered defense. It seems that just like the ground army is only operating in line-formations, with soldiers hiding behind tanks, the marine is also incapable of even the most basic tactical formations.
Most of Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade in Mariupol - which was surrounded in the Azovstal steelworks factory - has run out of ammunition and surrendered.
The infamous Neo-Nazi Azov brigade in other parts of the town is continuing fighting, since they expect to be executed.
Finland and Sweden are set to join NATO in June.
Russia's revanchist military aggression has changed the calculus, and show that neutrality is no longer enough. Although Finland is officially still studying the pro's and con's, there is very little doubt that both countries are coordinating their moves and will join together.
Tension in the Balkans is increasing due to a Serbian weapon buildup, and tensions in Kosovo where the Serbian part is making moves to declare independence.
Serbia imported anti-aircraft weapons from China, and is set to buy modern airplanes from France, while it is building up it's military. Kosovo has asked the US to establish a permanent military base, and to speed up it's membership request to NATO, since Serbia has never recognized Kosovo's independence and still views it as a breakaway province. The Serbian "Republika Srpska" part of Kosovo has passed a law claiming that all public properties in the area belong not to the central state, but to the local government which was vetoed by the head of the UN Office.
Small scale pogroms by Hindu extremists have erupted in India during the Rama Navami festival.
Houses are set on fire and calls for violence continue by saffron clad extremists who want to turn India into a Hindustan. They are shielded and aided by the police and encouraged by BJP politicians.
150 of the 200 FSB officers of the 5th Service department of "Operational Information and International Relations Service" - setup by Putin himself, who also gave them the mandate to kill abroad - have been fired, and it's director who was under house-arrest has been sent to a notorious prison. Searches have also been done on at least 20 premises to find evidence of contacts with journalists.
The department is responsible for assassinations abroad, and meddling in former soviet countries affairs, including staging coups. It got the blame for the disastrous Ukraine invasion. The house searches could indicate that Vladimir Osechkin's whistleblower is really a FSB agent.
Ukrainian sabotage groups are blowing up targets such as railroads inside Russia, while Russia might have used chlorine gas against Ukrainian troops in Mariupol, who are about to be wiped out, due to shortages of ammunition.
Russia is continuing to pour huge amounts of material into the Donbas and Eastern Ukraine for a all or nothing offensive amidst confirmations from both sides that negotiations are dead.
Starvation of the poor is reported by defectors from North Korea.
Closed border with China due to COVID19 have lead to a stop in food imports, and quarantine measures make it impossible for people to try to forage.
There are indications that Russia is preparing to use chemical weapons against the Ukrainian troops in Mariupol.
The big battle for the Donbas region is expected to begin this week, with Russia moving in everything it has, in order to encircle and destroy the 1/3 of Ukraine's professional army stationed there. It has appointed a new experienced commander to take the overall command in Ukraine from the ground itself, instead of trying to incompetently micro-manage the war from the Kremlin, which helped led it to loose 1/4 of it's army. According to sources he is under a deadline to complete this task before May 9, the WWII victory day, which means the next month will be extremely bloody.
The humanitarian situation in Sri Lanka continues to worsen, as hospitals are operating without electricity and have run out of anti-biotics and other imported medical supplies.
Even some ambulances have stopped operating due to a lack of diesel.
Omicron is reported in all provinces of China, with the exception of Tibet, although most cases are concentrated in Shanghai. The second most cases are in Jilin, making it likely that COVID19 has also spread to North Korea despite it's draconian border controls.
Shanghai recorded recorded +/- 25000 new infections on Sunday and the trend is still up. People in other cities in China are panic buying after Beijing doubling down on zero COVID. The military police is now deployed in Shanghai to prevent unrest and small groups of people in areas where no cases are reported are allowed outside, to release pressure among the population.
Shanghai's port is operating at half-capacity, which will lead to shortages of manufactured products in other countries, leading to higher prices, and more inflation.
The world is doing de-globalization at a enormous pace, unwinding the efficiency gains of globalization in the last 30 years in only a short period of time. Causes are sanctions, Geo-political tensions, protection-ism, supply line problems, COVID induced shocks, and the war in Ukraine which altogether have lead to decoupling and rising prices in grains, vegetable oil, gas, oil, coal, and now also manufactured products from China.
Khan, the prime minister of Pakistan has been disposed from his post by the Pakistani parliament.
The opposition claims that the army will not support a coup by Khan to turn Pakistan (again) into a dictatorship..
Russia has lost up to 20% of its military according to a conservative estimate of the US.
Russia is now mobilizing 60000 reservists to continue Putin's war in Ukraine, but heavy weapons are not so easy to replace. It is also kicking out 15 human right NGO's including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. It seems likely that another 20% will have to be destroyed before serious negotiations will start somewhere in June.
China is doubling down on it's zero COVID policy, ahead of the of the 20th Party Congress in the autumn, where Chinese chairman Xi will tout it as one of his major achievements.
Because of this political sensitivity, people in Shanghai will be forced to continue to deal with forced separations of children from their parents, the killing of their pets, the lack of food, bad quarantine centers, deaths due to lack of medical treatment for other ailments, lack of being able to go outside of even their apartment and the suppression of any complaints on social media. Lockdowns and other measures have been extended to 23 other cities, including the capitol Beijing itself. Small-scale protests have erupted in Shanghai, as people find it impossible to secure food, now that even collective buying of food has been outlawed, which was itself a necessity to be able to buy food at all, since heavy-handed COVID restrictions make normal operations of delivery services impossible, and all shops are closed down. Armed police and/or military is now deployed in Shanghai to suppress any protests.
South Korea has asked the US to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory to acts as a deterrent against nuclear armed North Korea.
According to North Korea the US has been stationing nuclear weapons in South Korea all along, so this should not lead to escalations. Neighbor China might be asking itself if these weapons could also be used against it, and if this could have been prevented if it was actually helping the US to prevent North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons.
A truce has been announced which could lead to a permanent ceasefire in "Arabia Felix", aka Yemen, a war-torn, tribal country that had civil wars between it's North and South parts since 1967.
Al-Qaeda is the ruling mainstream party in big areas in the South, and just not supported by, but originates from the ruling hereditary castes. the "untouchables" caste (Al-Akhdam) are considered lower than slaves, which is still normal in Yemen, and never went away. It does not have a economy besides minimal oil/gas and growing Khat. The condition in Yemen is so bad it has been called "The world’s worst humanitarian crisis" by the UN.
Tunisia's president Saied is cracking down on the parliamentarian opposition, and is moving fast toward a new dictatorship.
He has earlier dissolved parliament, announced rule by decree, and took control of the judiciary, replacing independent judges by stooges.
A study in The American Journal of Transplantation claims that parsing of massive amounts of Chinese-language medical papers gives ample evidence that large scale dead row prisoner execution on demand for the sole purpose of organ harvesting is ongoing in China.
Reports of this have been seen before, but since most of these sources are Falun Gong cult members, who believe that magical exercises gives them perfect organs, that are coveted by evil CCP officials who have bad organs because of their immoral life-style, researchers are skeptical on what is propaganda and what is truth.
Ukraine is evacuating the Donbas area, anticipating a major offensive in area's around Izyum as Russian forces will try to capture all of the Donbas and surround the Ukrainian forces there.
The Ukrainian army is slowly pushing back the Russian army in the Kherson region, while Mariupol is still resisting Russian attempts to capture it. The Russian air-force is still surprisingly ineffective. Russia's navy is also completely absent, which is surprising since the whole Ukrainian coastline is one of Russia's major targets. Russia has never moved beyond using airplanes as dumb bombers, and ships as transport carriers.
No significant news
China is doubling down on its COVID zero policy by quarantining the whole of Shanghai, the second city of China, with a population of 26 million people and the biggest harbor of the world.
As usual China is treating its citizen like peaces of meat, separating children from parents, and locking people up in hastily build quarantine centers without facilities or even food in a "one size fits all" treatment. In this case it could seriously backfire, since people in Shanghai expect to be treated differently from people from tier 2 and 3 cities, let alone people in the country-side.
The situation in Sri Lanka is deteriorating, despite the government sacking most ministers, including family members of the ruling clan.
Reuters is warning that other weak countries might also face unrest from the fallout of high inflation, high grain prices, high sunflower oil prices and high energy prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
Gazprom Germania has been nationalized by the German government, in what can only be described as a new strike in the financial war between the EU and Russia.
Gazprom Germania trades and stores natural gas in Germany on behave of Gazprom. This confiscation will likely lead to counteractions from Russia.
The Russian army has finished withdrawing from the entire North of Ukraine. Fighting on the Russian side is now limited to a couple of missile strikes and some shelling with long-range artillery.
Russia is still moving as many troops as possible to the Donbas area. The Ukrainian army has taken the initiative and is focussing on taking back Kherson and areas East of Kharkiv while international attention is focused on the inevitable war-crimes committed by - in this case - Russian soldiers.
The "illiberal leaders" of Serbia and Hungary have been comfortably re-elected.
The question is whether this is due to media-control, popular policies or simply outright fraud.
Pakistan's prime minister has dissolved its parliament to prevent it from voting him out.
It's Prime Minister Imran Khan has earlier stated that he will not respond to a vote of no confidence from the parliament, claiming it is all one big American conspiracy.
Pakistan's prime minister is threatening with a coup.
He says the US wants him out, and the opposition is simply corrupt / bribed by the US. Although Khan is a idiot, his replacement is likely to be a complete insane moron and utter bastard. The idea that the US wants him out is therefore ludicrous. Yes, the US would want Pakistan to stop behaving like a mad dog, but since any replacement of Khan is likely to be even more insane than he is, it is very unlikely that the US is actively seeking to replace him.
Russia has withdrawn all it's forces in the North of Ukraine.
They are on their way to Kharkiv, Donbas and Mariupol, but since they are retreating through Belarus and Russia, it will take them time to get there. In the meantime Ukraine is likely to focus all forces on Kherson and Mariupol, so as to deny Russia a land-bridge to the Donbas region, and to cut the Krim off from Ukraine to force the Russian forces in Southern Ukraine to either withdraw to the Krim, or to join the forces in the Donbas.
Sri Lanka has declared a state of emergency, after riots and demonstrations which culumated in rioters trying to storm the presidential residence.
A ban on imports caused by a lack of foreign currency has lead to deep shortages of diesel, drugs and food and lead to power blackouts and a stop in surgeries. The current administration decided to slash taxes to stimulate growth, but combined with COVID19 this only lead to huge budgets deficits. The administration then decided to print its way out of trouble, which - predictably - lead to a huge drop in value of the currency and a shortage of foreign currency. It has now asked the IMF for help after China and India refused to loan again. This because it already owns China billions of dollars for its BRI debt-traps. India is sending rice as humanitarian assistance.
Despite noises that it will always "stand on the side of peace" and "negotiation", China refuses to condemn the invasion of Russia into Ukraine, or to even call it a invasion.
Leaving no doubts as to what China's position is, its spokesman Zhao Lijian clarified that China feels that this is all the fault of the US, which is the usual position of China for any problem in the world.
Russian forces are retreating from Chernihiv and the Kiev region, while Ukraine has blown up a oil depot in Belgorod, Russia and it is on the offensive in the Kherson and Dnipro regions.
And Russia is massing whatever forces it still has toward the Donbas region, and towards Mariupol.
According to the US the operations of the Russian army in Ukraine are directly led from Moscow by Putin, the defense minister Shoigu, and Gerasimov the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian army.
Which - if true - would help explain why the Russian army is acting slow, dumb, cruel, out-of-touch-with-reality, and is being butchered. The German / US model of setting broad objectives, and allowing troops and generals on the ground to take initiative in how to fulfill those objectives leads to fast adjustments to local circumstances.
Ukraine claims that Russia has lost about 17700 soldiers, about 625 tanks, more then 1686 armored vehicles, artilleries, etc, and also more than 143 airplanes plus 131 helicopters. Earlier estimates named approximate 40,000 killed, wounded, taken hostage, or missing.
If earlier estimates about the Russian army size of 149,000 soldiers and 2,840 tanks are correct, that would mean that between 22% and 27% of the Russian army has been destroyed.
A poll in Russia suggest a high approval rating for Russian dictator Putin.
Bizarrely elderly people are capable to - at the same time - know that they are being lied to, being fearful of saying anything that could get them in trouble and genuinely supporting the current leader against "foreign aggression".
Russia has demanded that buyers of natural gas must open ruble accounts in Russian banks this week, or potentially be cut off.
Russia could of course also simply sell the received Yen's and Euro's and buy Ruble with these to support the exchange rate, which is what Germany and Gazprom's bank agreed upon.
More people in Pakistan have been lynched for alleged blasphemy.
In this case the girls lynched their teacher because a relative had dreamed that the woman had said something bad about Muhammad. Of course the government is not slowing this down, but even has a mandatory death sentence for blasphemy, and is calling upon other countries to also prosecute blasphemers. Nuclear armed Pakistan never misses an opportunity to demonstrate the world just how bat-shit crazy it is.
Fighting in Ukraine has stalled, with Russia resorting to limited bombings with rockets and by airplane, and Ukraine slowly regaining small villages.
Ukraine's air-force seems to be completely destroyed, or grounded.
Information released by Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin says that he had received a document from a FSB whistleblower claiming that China's dictator Xi, was "considering taking over Taiwan in the fall".
This is from the same whistleblower who claimed that Russia's nuclear missiles are probably not working. This letter is likely either misinformation or the biased paranoia opinion of a FSB officer who has finally found an audience. Taiwan thinks a invasion is highly unlikely, considering how Chinese politics work, and considering the weather conditions in the fall. China has ordered its academics to evaluate the possibility of a military invasion of the island though, but this is likely a response to Russia's failures in Ukraine.
Shanghai has been mostly locked down to deal with the exponential growth in COVID19 cases as China struggles to control the much more infectious Omicron variant.
Shanghai recorded 3500 cases on Monday alone. The virus outbreak in China has spread to 28 provinces and regions across China, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Older people in China deeply distrust the vaccine and the government for reasons that are understandable, thus limiting options to "Live with the virus".
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is increasing now that Russia is to busy in Ukraine to send more "peace-keepers" to Armenia.
Among other things Azerbaijan cut of gas to Karabakh.
The number of failed states seems to be increasing with El Salvador declaring a state of emergency over a wave of gang-related killings with 62 people killed on Saturday alone. And Haiti is suffering from killings and kidnappings by gangs that effectively control whole parts of the country and economy, just like in Somalia.
While Afghanistan has outlawed education for woman or the possibility to travel unless accompanied by a "male guardian", leading ao. to missed flights.
Russian army gear is being taken from long-term storage facilities, but in many cases the conditions of vehicles are so bad that only 1/10 "mothballed" units is in working order.
This is attributed to corruption, with reports that "Optical devices and electronics containing precious metals were stolen from the combat vehicles" and some vehicles are reportedly "completely dismantled" and even without engines.
India and Russia have agreed to do currency-swaps, following Russia and China currency swaps, and Saudi Arabia and China payments deal.
It seems that the weaponizing of the Dollar has lead to efforts to work around it. China has swap agreements of the Renminbi with Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Turkey, Japan, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Argentina, Belarus, Brazil, Hong Kong, Iceland, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, The United Kingdom and Uzbekistan and many more, although China sees currency swaps also as a way of giving a loan that can only be spent in China, thus increasing trade dominance.
Ukraine has again asked NATO to provide it with heavy weapons, such as anti-ship missiles, tanks, fighter-airplanes and anti-aircraft missiles.
Incredibly NATO is sitting on the fence on this. "What are they waiting for?" is indeed the question rightly asked by the Ukrainian President.
Saudi-Arabia continues to bomb the Houthi in Yemen, and the Houthi continue to do drone-attacks on Saudi-Arabia in return.
Saudi-Arabia is also mad at the US for refusing to designate the Houthis as a terrorist organization, but the US keeps on supporting the Saudi's with weapons and intelligence, despite the fact that Saudi-Arabia should stop it's pointless war against the Houthi in Yemen as the Houthi are not a proxy-army of Iran.
Russia announced it will concentrate its efforts in Ukraine on the Donbas region.
It seems it has given up in trying to conquer Kiev and Kharkiv, and will try to settle for The Krim, Mariupol, The Donbas region and any interconnecting land. In other completely unrelated news: a sixth Russian general has been killed in Ukraine.
China has started another collaboration with the government of the Solomon Islands. This one not only encompasses Chinese police operating in the Solomon Islands to protect it's business interests, citizen and to protect "social order", but a military agreement in which China will ao. operate a military naval base on the island.
It seems that the government of the Solomon Islands thinks its a good idea to give up sovereignty, and become a colony of China. But since the earlier riots against the government by anti-china demonstrators, this is bound to create a long-term anti China backlash.
The US has lifted tariffs on 350 Chinese products.
It looks like the US has decided to do "win win" collaboration, although it remains to be seen if this will seen in China as a further sign of weakness, or as a wish to lower tensions.
Ukraine has had some successes in counter-attacking Russian army forces around Kiev, Zaporizhiye and Kerson but not the far withdrawal you would expect if the Russian troops were almost out of supplies.
Meanwhile the US claims that Russian missiles have an astonishing 20 to 60% failure rate, depending on the type of missile fired.
no significant news
Ukraine has staged a limited counter-offensive.
Ukraine will try to gain momentum in rolling back forces, but as long as the Russian air-force is still operational, it can't send out convoy reinforcements to surrounded cities such as Kharkiv and especially Mariupol. Russia will likely fall back from Eastern Kiev, and concentrate those forces to take Kharkiv and Mariupol, who are 2 out of the 4 desired targets. The other 2 are Kiev and Odessa
The US FBI reports that virtual kidnappings have gone sharply up in the US.
A virtual kidnapping is a scam call where a person claims to have kidnapped a persons kid/spouse, and demands a ransom. By overwhelming the person with fear, and by keeping the person on the line all the time, they don't allow the victim to think things through. Virtual kidnappings in the future can be much more effective if the scammer has access to the victims/kids phone, since its much easier to block communication to a person than to actually kidnap that person.
Statements of the Ukrainian president suggest that Russia demands among other things the Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kiev.
Kharkiv was the capital of Ukraine from 1919 till 1934, Kiev is considered the birthplace of the Russian empire, while Mariupol is the main harbor, and necessary to connect the Krim to the Donbas region. Russia considers all of these cities to be 'traditionally Russian'.
Ukraine claims that the Russian army in Ukraine has only enough food and ammunition left for 3 more days.
Food can easily be stolen from locals, but ammunition not so much.
The US reports that it is not seeing any indications that Belarus is preparing to send troops into Ukraine.
The Belarus dictator Lukashenko claimed last week that it had intercepted a missile that was fired from Ukraine into Belarus, claiming that Ukraine is trying to get Belarus to declare war on Ukraine, at a time when Ukraine is fighting for it very survival against much bigger opponent Russia. He emphasized that Putin is a "completely sane, healthy person". And just as you think that the insane, outrageous lies can't get any worse: RT, the Russian propaganda outlet claims that Ukraine is castrating all Russian POWs.
The Drive's the war zone has published an article called "Flurry Of Government Aircraft Activity Over Russia Draws Attention", that breaks down worrying signs of nuclear war operation tests.
Even more worrying is that it also describes private airplanes of most likely well connected oligarchs heading to the United Arab Emirates, in what could be sanction busting, confiscation evading or vacations, but in a worst case scenario could also be rats leaving the sinking ship, convinced that their dictator completely lost it. Russian Notices to Mariners in the Barents Sea are still being updated warning of missile and artillery firings, and banning all shipping in those waters. Same for the Sea of Okhotsk and The Kuril Islands.
All males between 18 and 60 years in the Donbas area are conscripted in the military, in a clear sign that Russia is not backing down.
Meanwhile Israel says that very large gaps remain between the two sides, for which it is trying to negotiate a cease-fire, while the EU is preparing to stop buying Russian oil.
The war in Ukraine continues, with Russia trying to at least conquer Mariupol, Odessa and encircle Ukrainian troops in the Donbas in a race against time against attrition and spring.
Time is on the side of Ukraine in the long term, but not for the people trapped in cities that are being strangled, and running out of food such as is now happening in Mariupol. Mariupol is out of food, water, heat, communication, electricity and more than 90% of the buildings has been damaged. People are being buried in mass-graves when shelling subsides. And Russia has just started a attack on Odessa, which might suffer the same faith.
A China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737 has crashed in Southern China with no survivors out of the 132 passengers.
The plane was only seven years old, and is a predecessor to the infamous Boeing 737 Max. It crashed in a mountainous area, with limited sight due to clouds. It reportedly fell from the sky with a speed of 566 km/hour, which if true would indicate a mechanical malfunction.
The Kremlin is calling upon its citizen not to panic buy goods such as sugar and buckwheat, as shortages are reported as well as high inflation.
In Ukrainian more than 1/4 of the entire population is displaced within Ukraine, and more then 3 million people have fled to neighboring country. The exact death toll of civilians is unknown, but high.
China says it is now not sending arms to Russia.
While Turkey claims that Ukraine and Russia are making progress on negotiations.
Argentina has agreed to another IMF bailout.
IMF deals come and go in Argentina.
Heavy fighting is taking place in the Ukrainian city Mariupol, with reports of tanks and fighting in the city center.
Russia seems determined to at least cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, and connect the Krim with the Donbas region. It is unlikely it will ever give those regions up in negotiations.
Hong Kong's funeral industry warns of a coffin shortage, and claims that 300 coffins every day are needed to cope with the daily fatalities due to COVID19.
As of now there is a backlog of 3200 people who have died, but not yet buried.
Army convoy activity has been spotted in Belarus, which might be a sign that Belarus will send troops into Ukraine to help Russia's stalled army.
Belarus has also just evacuated its embassy from Ukraine.
China is trying to get discussing the war in Ukraine of the G20 agenda. Xi also called upon NATO to start direct discussions with Russia in order to create spheres of influences, and denounced sanctions as unlawful and unhelpful. China also claims that the US is heightening tension between it and the US by "playing with fire" on "the Taiwan question".
Its propaganda outlets claim that the US is trying to sow discord between Russia and China, and that the US has "deep anxiety and pressing need for help from China" on the Ukraine crisis and is also worrying about "the risk of a rapid escalation of conflicts with China over the Taiwan question". which is code for: "Give us what we want, or it's your fault if we start a war", and reflective of the common believe in China that the US is weak, divided and decadent. This is same non-sense that tin-hat dictators always want to see in the democratic countries with a open press, political liberties and freedom of speech. China is not rethinking it partnership with Russia. But it is embarrassed that what was suppose to be a quick military action by Russia turned out to be a big bloody war, and that it is associated with Russia. Russia makes it lose face.
The Russian dictator Putin held a huge rally in a football stadium in which he tried to rally the Russian people and put on a nationalistic spectacle, featuring the by now infamous Z sign, which strongly channels the Nuremberg Nazi rally's except that the Swastika has been replaced by a "Z".
Ironically the person who want to "unite all Russian people", undo the "tragic breakup of the Soviet Union / Russian Empire", started a pre-meditated unprovoked war of conquest, created a "Molotov-Ribbentrop" pact with fellow dictator Xi, want to "revenge the humiliation of the west", created his own "Dolchstoßlegende", in which the Soviet Empire could have been preserved if only Gorbachev would have given to order to shoot, blames a "global cabal" of wanting to undermine, divide and weaken the Russian people, cracked down on any form of dissent, created a Hitler-Jugend, abolished democracy, and has instituted a tightly controlled propaganda network, claims that his opponents are Nazi's and claims to want to "de-nazify" Ukraine, in a truly Orwellian case of new-speak were white is black and slavery is freedom. It is also a worrying sign that Putin does not plan to back down, and is therefore trying to rally the whole of Russia in order to be able to fully mobilize the full military, including the reserves. It fits the behavior of Putin, who seems to think that whenever there is a problem, the only answer is to double down, and escalate, until the "weaker man" backs down.
In the Western part of Sri Lanka exams have been cancelled due to a shortage of money to buy paper and ink.
Sri Lanka is one of the most visible victims of the current inflation exabated by large debts due to China's Belt and Road diplomacy, in which poor countries sign hidden agreements for big infra-structural projects carried out by Chinese companies, payed for by loans from the Chinese government, with huge kickback for the corrupt local politicians signing them.
Ahead of upcoming talks between China and the US, China has made clear that talks are only been possible if the "Taiwan question" is also on the table.
China predictably claims that the US is "sending wrong signals to Taiwan secessionists by sending former American diplomats to visit the island", since it thinks that Pompeo could never have gone to Taiwan without approval from the current US administration and claims that this is rapidly escalating the situation. China also says in so many words that it wants the US to drop trade restrictions and return to "win-win cooperation". It seems more and more likely that Xi and Putin made a pact to back each other in their mutual ambitions to reclaim "lost territory".
Chinese propaganda outlet GlobalTimes, claims it fully understands the suffering of the people in Ukraine, since: "Chinese people can fully relate to the pains and sufferings of other countries because we will never forget who bombed our embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia", in what can only be described as an deeply inappropriate comparison.
The US President at the time immediately apologized for the bombing, claimed it was an accident and paid off the family of the 3 journalists killed.
Ukraine has launched limited counterattacks against the Russian army around the Ukrainian cities Khersos, Mykolaiv and around Izyum. but Russia is moving in on Kiev from the East.
Ukraine claims it has destroyed 444 tanks, 1.751 other vehicles such as armored cars, anti-air systems and artillery and has killed 14.000 combatants, wounded at least 21.000 and captured around 1000 soldiers. Russia is sending supply ships from it's bases in the far east to augment material, although it will be a long time before they arrive in the black sea, and Turkey has closed the Bosporus for military vessels. Russia is asking China for military supplies, including ration packs. Ukrainian losses are mostly unknown, but it has a unlimited supply of anti-armored, anti-aircraft weapons and small arms, and a highly motivated force augmented with huge numbers of volunteers.
Moldova called on Russia to withdraw it's unasked "peace-keeper" troops from Transnistria. Russia called the description of its troops as a occupation force "unacceptable".
Russia also used threatening language to Balkan countries that have announced intentions to join NATO.
Saudi Arabia is in talks with China to trade oil directly in Yuan, instead of in dollars, in what could be the beginning of the end of the PetroDollar.
If Saudi Arabia accepts Yuan for oil from China, it will also - eventually - accept Yuan for oil from other countries.
A Russian military source of Reuters claims that there has been a change in orders from the Kremlin in recent days, but a televised broadcast by Putin on TV seem to indicate that Putin is either still deep in denial, or is kept out of the loop. This while potential conscripts are fleeing Russia, fearing a full mobilization.
According to the source "Everything is on pause.","There has been a clear change of tactics by our troops.","The active advance has been halted". Things will only become worse in the Spring when the whole battleground turns into mud, and guerilla hit-and-run attacks become possible thanks to leaf cover.
2 British persons held captive by Iran have been released after GB unfroze a 400 million pound fund that was owned by the late dictatorial Shah of Iran.
In previous days Iran hinted that it is waiting for a final nod of approval from Russia that it too is on board on a new comprehensive nuclear deal between Iran and NATO plus Russia and China, which seems to have been given by Russia after the US reportedly promised it will allow trade between Iran and Russia. It also seems that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard will be removed from terrorist blacklists, in exchange for efforts to de-escalate problems in the middle east by Iran. The last issue still standing is that Iran wants guarantees that a future Republican president can't withdraw from the agreement again, which is understandable.
Ukraine claims that up to 40% of the military units that Russia has sent into Ukraine have either been taken out, or are no longer operational due to logistical problems, maintenance, et al. It also claims to have started a counter-offensive in Ukraine's South.
If Ukraine manages to take out Russia's heavy material, then Russia's army will effectively only have infantry against a much bigger Ukraine highly motivated infantry force that is fighting to defend their own homes in an urban environment. There is no way that that would end well for Russia.
Russia's army continues to strangle Ukrainian cities such as Mariupol.
While Ukraine claims that Russia likely will be forced to end the war in early May due to lack of resources, which is less than a month from now.
In China the number of COVID19 lockdowns is strongly increasing, as the number of omicron cases have gone up.
Including in Shanghai where a positive COVID19 test in a hospital lead to panic since the hospital was shut off from the outside world. In China nobody really trusts the CCP, especially not the elderly, who as a result are often not vaccinated.
According to several US officials, Russia has asked China for military equipment. The US threatened China that it would face "consequences" if it were to aid Russia .
Russia's National Guard admitted that "not everything is going as fast as we would like" in the war with Ukraine.
Serious talks about a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have started.
it vindicates the view that the war so far has been a disaster for Russia, since they would never have started peace talks if they thought they easily could win on the ground.
The military facility near the Polish border that was hit by a Russian air strike is used as a training center by foreign military "instructors".
which indicates that the US and/or NATO is doing then more just providing weapons, and which makes these soldiers valid targets. It is also a Russian warning against NATO intervention in Ukraine.
Iran has bombarded an Israeli center and a US consulate building with ballistic missiles in Erbil, the Kurdish capital while it has also suspended direct talks with Saudi Arabia.
Israel killed two members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards in a air-strike in Syria last Monday, which Iran vowed to retaliate.
Ukraine is reporting that it's forces have captured Russian soldiers, are taking out vehicles, have mostly destroyed the 102th regiment near Mariupol, destroyed a Russian command post near Kiev, and in general is repelling the Russian army in all directions.
Russia is reported to have fired multiple military commanders, put the head of the FSB under house arrest, while stepping up recruitment of fighters in Syria, and is mobilizing troops in the Donbas region, Crimea and is moving units from Central and Eastern Russia toward Ukraine. It's ally Belarus is moving troops to the Ukrainian border.
EU countries the G7 are stepping up new rounds of sanctions, and are shipping more weapons to Ukraine, leading Russia to warn that it "makes those convoys legitimate targets.”
Russian ally Kazakhstan's Qazaq Air is suspending flights to Russia, due to the inability to gain insurance for fights into Russian airspace.
The number of Omicron variant BA.2 cases is starting to rise, and it could soon become the dominant COVID19 variant worldwide, while the US found a crossover, dubbed Delta-cron.
It's now 35% of all new cases, and in England 1 in 25 people had COVID last week. but it's so far not causing a new wave in countries that have Omicron, and also is not more severe than the other variants. Meanwhile Hong Kong is struggling with overflowing hospitals, due to a very low vaccination rate among the elderly.
India accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan due to a claimed technical error.
Pakistan and India are both nuclear powers with a long history of wars.
Ukraine is claiming that many Russian soldiers are deserting, to prevent having to fight in Ukraine, which might be truth, but is probably mostly wishful thinking and propaganda.
In any case Russia still has enough soldiers left to continue shelling cities, and continuing it's march through Southern Ukraine.
Despite all the lockdowns, the number of COVID19 cases in China has nearly doubled to 900 per day.
Hong Kong's dynamic zero-COVID, which has led to overflowing hospitals is also not seen in Beijing as a great success, so for now China is stuck.
Demonstrations have been held in Nasiriya, South Iraq to protest against the high prices of flour and cooking oil.
Ukraine is not just producing huge amounts of grains for export, but also exports about 1/4th of all sunflower oil in the world, with Russia immediately following.
Russia and Ukraine have started the first serious talks about ending the war in Ukraine while domestic defiance over the war appears to be on the rise in Russia, with anti-war protests intensifying in Russia along with police crackdown, in which at least 13836 persons have been arrested.
Potential Russian conscripts that have the means to do so are fleeing to Turkey, and other countries to prevent being drafted, while Putin claimed that "some conscripts might have been sent to Ukraine by mistake", all of which suggest that this is the most unpopular war in modern Russian history.
The war in Ukraine is continuing in a slowing pace, with Russia still trying to encircle Kiev in the North, but making a bit more progress in the South were its moving towards Kryvyi Rih. This while military useless Russian shelling of cities continues, and Ukrainian forces keep on ambushing Russian convoys. The Russian air-force - that has taken heavy losses the last couple of days - is noticeably absent according to the UK.
Interesting enough there is a video showing the aftermath of a attack of Ukrainian forces on a Russian army column that has somebody in the background talking English in an American accent to other people, who might be a volunteer or maybe even an American "advisor".
The man who received the first ever xeno-transplant has died.
An autopsy will have to provide evidence of the exact cause of death.
China's propaganda mouthpiece GlobalTimes reports that a CCP senior official want to introduce a new law, pushing for unification with Taiwan, saying “conditions are becoming ripe to promote the reunification of the motherland by legal means, whether in a peaceful way or not”
In China a law is not a enforceable legal statement, but more akin to a medieval edict, stating intent, and providing guidance to expected behavior from underlings. That is why new laws can contradict old laws, and enforcement of laws depends on circumstances and opportunity.
Ukraine troops East of Kiev report multiple clashes with Russian troop East of Kiev, and claims to have taken out Russian mercenaries from the infamous Wagner group, while Russia is sending a convoy of fuel supply trucks trough Belarus to resupply the stuck convoy North of Kiev, and is stepping up bombing of towns around Kiev.
It seems that the real battle for Kiev is about to begin in a couple of days.
Scientists working for Commonwealth Fusion Systems claim that they expect that SPARC, their prototype fusion reactor will be able to produce ten times more energy than it needs around 2025.
Nuclear energy is always only ten years away, but this is 3 years, which suggests a level of confidence that might be warranted.
A study in Nature is showing that 75% of the Amazon rainforest may be nearing a tipping point after which the rainforest will turn to savanna.
Considering the size of the Amazon rainforest, and it's importance this could spell big changes for the future.
Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) is claiming that in the last 12 months it has seen a lot of targeted attacks from Fancy-Bear/APT28 (Russia) and Ghostwriter/UNC1151 (Belarus), but also from Mustang Panda/Temp.Hex (China).
The main difference is that China only became active the last couple of months when the Ukraine crisis was escalating, and was mostly focussed on EU decision-makers searching for information on the Ukraine border situation, which indicates that China was not in from the start, got notified in a late stadium and was worried about EU responses.
China's military announced that nine more "provincial-level memorial facilities for martyrs", have been approved, up to a new total of 28 across the province, in what might be a tacit recognition that the number of Chinese soldiers killed in the China–India conflict is higher then the claimed 4 casualties.
This conflict is still ongoing, because despite both sides agreeing to withdraw, neither side wants to be first, believing the other side will use the opportunity to seize the area and dig in.
Taiwan's Vice President stated that Taiwan wants to join The Quad, a military alliance between the US, India, Japan and Australia.
It also wants deeper trade relations with the US, as well as join the CPTPP. It's unlikely to be approved, since Taiwan can bring very little military resources to the table, it would complicate talks and it would unnecessary antagonize China. Taiwan is using the salami slicing technique to move as far away from China as possible in small steps.
BSI, the German intelligence service is warning that - due to the ongoing war in Ukraine - cyber-attacks on high value targets are imminent.
Cyber-war has proven to be a valuable tool for low level conflict, due to low changes of attribution and easy deniability, but of very little use in kinetic combat.
According to the annual threat assessment by the US DNI, China is developing "one of the greatest nuclear weapons forces in history"
China might not want war over Taiwan, but it is clearly preparing for one.
The Economist claims that Russia's 60km convoy is stuck on the road to Kiev ,Ukraine due to bad maintenance of ao.. tires which forces it to use roads, and active acts of self-sabotage by Russian forces them-self, as well as small strategical attacks by Ukrainian forces.
It also points out that the Western flank might be waiting for the eastern thrust to catch up, so as to encircle Kiev.
Morgan Stanley, a American bank, said Russia was set for a “Venezuela-style default” as early as April 15th when the grace period on coupon payments from Russian dollar bonds expires.
This is unlikely to deter Putin though, but could make life more difficult for Russia in the long term.
Russia is threatening to cut off gas to Europe if sanctions are imposed on it's oil exports which is exactly what the US president is set to announce today.
It is unlikely though that Europe will follow up since Germany rejects an oil embargo (for now). An embargo would deeply hurt Kazakhstan which depends on oil exports which pass through Russia. The US has virtually no imports of Russian oil, which makes this a largely symbolic gesture.
Opposition party's in Pakistan have submitted a motion of no-trust against Prime Minister Imran Khan.
They also claim that the PM no longer has the support of Pakistan's king-makers, the Pakistan Army, or more specifically ISI, it's state-in-a-state regime, responsible for state sponsored terrorist attacks against India, a organization that was also actively helping Al-Qaeda and the Taliban while the US was in Afghanistan. Despite the many flaws of Khan, he is a beacon of sanity in a country that can only be described as nuts.
Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy stated in an interview that he is willing to come to a compromise with Russia about the status of the Krim and the Donbas region.
By opening a face saving way out for Russia real negotiations can finally start. No president in Ukraine would be able to abandon claims to the Krim and Donbas regions in peacetime, but Zelenskyy can do it, since he has gained the trust of the Ukrainian population, who are also aware of the alternative, and might now have might have more compassion for the desire of people in those regions to be independent of Ukraine.
An alleged analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst, that could have been written by said FSB analyst describing the current situation is doing the round on the internet. It paints a extremely dark picture of the situation for Russia, and possibly the World. It is as of now unknown if this is a fake propaganda piece, or a real leak, but it feels like a fake since it explicitly states that Russia has secretly been sending criminals to fight, that Ukraine is "monstrously motivated", has capable commanders and knows how to fight, efforts of Russia to create false evidence of nuclear dirty bombs by Ukraine are bound to fail, Russia's nuclear missiles are probably not working, and Putin can't launch WW3 on his own anyway.
It claims that nobody in the FSB knew or was prepared that Putin would go to war, that the Chechen squad got almost wiped out in a ambush, leaking to frictions and suspicions of leaks, that assigned puppet leaders and Russia friendly parties are unwilling or too afraid to collaborate, contact with whole divisions in the field has been lost because their secure communication system is not working, there is no possibility of victory for Russia, there is a possibility of a localized nuclear strike, Russian positions in Syria and Chechnya are bound to fall, full mobilization is not an option and even if it were tried, logistical problems would not allow success.
A scientific study published on Biorxiv called Recovery of deleted deep sequencing data sheds more light on the early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, claims that it recovered deleted data from Google Cloud, that shows that the Wuhan wet market was not the start of the COVID19 pandemic.
It makes the case by comparing partial recovered samples from the first patients in Wuhan that were deleted by the Chinese government with samples of COVID collected from bats in Southern China. The data is publicly available, but peer review will have to be done to show if the results stand.
Talks between Iran and the US about restoring the nuclear deal (JCPOA) are going well, according to "multiple sides"
The biggest issues are the status of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and guarantees the US will keep it's part of the deal.
More videos from Ukraine show destroyed and burned out vehicles, suggesting that the Russian army is taking heavy loses.
so far only one video shows the (covered) body of a dead Russian soldier, which suggest that either the Russian soldiers are getting away, or - more likely - that Ukraine has strict propaganda rules in place to not show dead bodies of soldiers.
According to the US, Russia has put in nearly 100% of it's pre-staged forces in Ukraine, and there is no sign of reinforcements being mobilized. Other news reports that Russia is trying to recruit Syrian fighters to fight in Ukraine.
This suggests that the core of the Russian army is in Ukraine, and most likely badly trained conscripts have filled in empty division spots in the far east and other vital bases.
Russia seems to be seeking a way out of the war it started in Ukraine, with demands that allow it to claim victory to it's domestic audience.
Instead of "demilitarization" and "de-nazification" it now demands the formal acceptance of it's annexation of the Donbas and the Krim and the promise that it won't seek to join NATO, which is a long way down from Ukraine being a "existential" threat to Russia, and "not a real country" that has to be re-incorporated into the tight embrace of Russia. It also demands that Ukraine is stopping military actions, which is bizarre, since it's clearly Russia invading, trying to advance and shelling cities. These demands could lead to negotiations, a cease-fire, and an arrangement in which both NATO and Russia guarantee the independence of Ukraine, with Ukraine giving up what de-facto is already Russian, or allowing independent referenda to be organized in this regions, which would likely indicate that these areas want to be part of Russia.
High prices in oil and gas and global energy insecurity are likely to at least delay phasing out extremely dirty fossil fuels such as coal.
Which is very bad news for efforts to limit greenhouse gases, and keep global temperature rises limited to "only" 2C.
China stressed the need for security of energy, food, and industrial and supply chains claiming "external uncertainties", specifically when it comes to wheat, rice and oil.
It also emphasized that it's relation with Russia is "iron clad" and "one of the most crucial bilateral relationships in the world". It further clarified that a comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan is not possible because Taiwan is a indivisible part of China, which sounds a lot like "Ukraine is not a real country anyway".
Despite all attacks on supply lines by Ukrainian forces, Russia's army continues to push slowly into Ukraine, including the big column that is set to surround Kiev.
It seems that the strategy of the Ukrainian army is to go after supply lines as much as possible, leading to advance army group running out of fuel an ammo and becoming an easy prey while also delaying the advance to give the Ukraine army more time to use small ambushes, go after opportunistic targets, get troops to be demoralized and thereby wearing the Russian army out, until it collapses.
The director of Yara International, a Norwegian fertilizer company is warning of a global food crisis because of shortages of essential raw materials from Russia. Quote: "For me, it's not whether we are moving into a global food crisis - it's how large the crisis will be."
This while Hungary and Moldova are banning grain exports and Argentina and Turkey increased control over local food production.
Russia has set a hard deadline before which websites in Russia are to eliminate all dependency's of the wide internet to only dependency's inside Russia.
It could be a preventative measure to reduce impact if the west were to cut Russia off from the internet, or Russia could be preparing to do it itself, to minimize information about the war flowing in Russia.
Russian people have been protesting against the war with Ukraine in 53 cities in Russia, with human rights group OVD-Info reporting that 4000 persons have been arrested, including 1700 in Moscow alone.
It's easy to overlook that most Russian people are also victims of Putin's war.
In a telephone conversation with Turkey, Putin re-re-emphasized his modest demands for stopping the invasion of Ukraine, which are that “Kiev stops its military action and fulfills the demands of Russia” according to the Kremlin’s press service.
Which are the unilateral surrender of Ukraine, the "de-nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine, and the installment of a friendly puppet regime, acting as a little brother under the guidance of Moscow.
Ukraine claims that Russia has lost about 11000 soldiers, about 300 tanks, more then 1500 armored vehicles, artilleries, etc, and also more than 44 airplanes plus 48 helicopters.
If earlier estimates about the Russian army size of 149,000 soldiers and 2,840 tanks are correct, that would mean that about 10% of the Russian army has already been destroyed in the first 10 days of the war. It is unknown how many soldiers surrendered or deserted. Ukraine's losses are unknown, although at least 1500 soldiers died, but more than 20000 foreigners have volunteered to fight in Ukraine, and more then 100000 Ukrainians have joined the Ukrainian army.
The Kremlin is now claiming that Ukraine is "months away" from making a "dirty bomb".
apparently the "nuclear bomb" lie was not convincing enough. The simple truth is that any country that has uranium or plutonium can make a "dirty bomb" in days, since a dirty bomb is nothing more than a normal bomb surrounded by radioactive material.
Russia state media RIA-Novosti prematurely published a “victory” article on the 26th of February, claiming victory, in Ukraine which was afterwards quickly deleted, but which can still be seen on the Internet Archive.
Quotes "Russia is restoring its unity – the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome.", " Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together – in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians.", "the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation – when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev)", "Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade ", "the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end.", "three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole.", "Did someone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kiev? That the Russians will forever be a divided people?", "Russia is returning", "the construction of a new world order is accelerating", "this is Russia’s return of its historical space and its place in the world.", "Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over."
Putin, the dictator of Russia, declared that he had no intention of declaring martial law, that no conscripts were sent to Ukraine, that the Ukrainian military was practically destroyed, and that he had no choice invading Ukraine, because of the real threat coming out of Kiev and NATO, claiming that if Ukraine were to become member of NATO, then NATO would be forced to go to war to reclaim Crimea for Ukraine. RT, the Kremlin propaganda outlet hinted that Russia is seeking to establish a new Novorussian state in Eastern Ukraine with Kharkov as it's capital, consistent with the map that the Bela-Russian dictator was showing.
He also doubled down on the bizarre claim that Ukraine was trying to acquire nuclear weapons, and that Russia was just seeking the “demilitarization and de-nazification” of Ukraine. The whole premises of Ukraine seeking nuclear weapons is solely based on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reminder that Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons as part of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia promised to respects the former soviet countries borders in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons. Russia still insists it has no intention of occupying Ukraine, despite Putin's 50 minute prerecorded rant that claims that Ukraine is not a real country, that it and other former Soviet countries should not exist and are historically part of Russia.
Ukrtelecom the Ukrainian telecom-provider is reporting damage affecting service in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Volyn, Khmelnytsia, Lviv and Ternopil.
It seems that Russia is trying to not only knock out all TV-broadcasts, but is also trying to silence all communication in an effort to hinder troop communication and win the propaganda war.
China has stated that it will seek to "resolve the Taiwan question in the new era". This while former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo proclaimed during a speech in Taipei that the US should formally recognize Taiwan as a country.
The Chinese have difficulty seeing that former officials can say things that are not supported by the current government. The CCP sees as the three eras: the Mao era, when China ‘stood up’; the Deng Xiaoping-Jiang Zemin-Hu Jintao era, when China ‘grew rich’; and the ‘new era’, when the PRC ‘is becoming strong’.
The Iron Silk Road (New Silk Road) is effectively dead, since it goes through Russia and Belarus, and it is unlikely that it will survive the current uncoupling from Russia.
A earlier proposed alternative that still has to be build would go through Russian client Kazakhstan, Iran and Afghanistan. China won't be happy, especially since it was build to provide an alternative to US dominated sea-lanes.
Multiple talking heads are pushing the narrative that NATO should drastically reinforce the Suwalki corridor to prevent Russia from trying to merge Kaliningrad with the rest of Russia, and/or invade the Baltic states.
This despite the fact that no matter the outcome Russia's army will be licking it's wounds for a long time, and won't be in any condition to take on NATO. Without any doubt this will be seen as a further act of aggression by Russia, but it's better to repair the roof while the sun is still shining, especially now that Putin's mind-set has been laid open for all to see. It's not just Ukraine that "should not exist", it's also the Baltic States.
Cisco alerted that a BGP highjacking attack of an Ukrainian IP-range has been carried out by Russian ASN.
It was detected by 5 BGP-Mon peers, and from different organizations, making it unlikely that this was a false positive. If Russia is not careful it will be kicked of the internet as well.
Russia has declared a partial ceasefire for humanitarian evacuation corridors out of the Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha.
But is seems that Russian troops on the ground have not all received that order.
Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev claims that Russia is now resorting to outdated WWII material and civilian trucks and could run out of material in days. It should be noted that Christo Grozev is strongly pro-Ukraine, and in no way an independent observer.
Also: tanks are seen leaving the city of Kherson , in what looks like a temporary withdraw due to overextended supply lines.
North Korea is still suffering from major food shortages, with officials claiming that "many families had so little food that they couldn’t attend a number of political events"
The regime has been stepping up inspections of food-stores to reduce black market sales by corrupt officials.
Hong Kong has imposed limits on certain food-stocks and toilet paper to halt panic buying.
The question is how long it can keep doing it's own thing before Beijing steps in.
Georgia ,Moldova and Ukraine have all applied to become members of the EU.
Apparently they got signals from the EU that this would likely be approved. It could be seen as a non-escalation way of signaling the Kremlin not to do anything funny with those countries, although what the EU will do if Russia invades them is unclear.
China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has suspended all business in Russia and Belarus.
This suggest that China is starting to realize what real wars look like, and is starting to re-appreciate "harmony" and "stability". The alternative to "Pax America" is not a world were China "won't be kept down", but a dog eat dog world were (small)wars are eternal, including at and inside it's own borders. It's also a world were it's business interests and citizen are not safe and protesting won't help, as the fate of the 6000 Chinese stuck in Ukraine makes crystal clear.
According to the Ukrainian army 95% of the employable Russian army is now inside Ukraine (111 of the 117 battle groups). Besides being stuck in traffic, they are being used to strangle the big cities that cannot be taken by direct conflict.
This is being done by bombing cities into obliviation and cutting food, water, transport and electricity. This results in sending a frightened trigger-happy conscript army into deeply hostile terrain to take out nuclear power plants, and almost starting a new Chernobyl.
Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine keeps pushing for a NATO imposed no-fly zone, despite the fact that this would lead to an immediate WW3 between Russia and NATO.
Apparently the Russian airplanes are doing more damage than Ukraine shows.
Rumors that Russia is about to impose martial law, has led to a small exodus of people taking the train to Finland while Moscow's stock exchange has stayed closed for more than four days and capital controls have been imposed to prevent foreign currency outflows.
This while Russian people protesting against war or are signing anti-war petitions are being arrested or fired.
Russia is threatening Finland and Sweden that joining NATO will lead to "serious military-political consequences".
Since Russia is busy trying to kill Ukraine and not joining NATO could lead to an invasion it is unlikely that this will change Sweden and Finland's mind.
A US intelligence report claims that China insisted upon Russia not to start any trouble with Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.
This was when the two countries declared that the "Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no 'forbidden' areas of cooperation" .
Rapports of Russian material getting stuck in the mud and being abandoned are appearing, indicating that the spring thaw is hindering the movement of heavy equipment.
Temperatures are now above zero in Ukraine. Would Russia have been better off if it would have invaded during the Winter Olympic?
Russia has managed to take Kherson and is getting ready to launch a big amphibious assault on Odessa, despite the rest of the Russian army being nowhere near it although Russian troops from Transnistria could provide support, but this would create a new diplomatic incident. It has also cut off power, food, water and heating in the city of Mariupol according to it's mayor.
The 60km column of Russian army vehicles is still stuck in place and seems to be suffering from several logistical problems including spoiled food rations. The big question is: where is the Russian air force? The bigger question is: will Putin start threatening Ukraine with nuclear bombs if the Russian army can't win with conventional arms? Or maybe even nuke Kiev to make a point?
The number of corona-cases in New Zealand has risen exponential although the number of deaths and hospitalizations has stayed low.
23194 new cases were reported today leading to a total of 166098 cases but only 56 deaths have been reported so far. All cases are the omicron variant.
Heavy rains continue to cause flooding in Eastern Australia.
Yes, climate change causes more atmospheric rivers.
The Ukrainian claim to have destroyed almost 800 vehicles should be taken as propaganda, unless proof is provided.
Images related to this have shown so far only small amounts of vehicles. Updated claims are that the convoy consisted of 800 vehicles of which approx 100 have been destroyed.
Ukraine claims that it destroyed a convoy of almost 800 vehicles near Bashtanka.
This is unrelated to the 60km convoy north of Kiev. Ukraine also claims to have captured a map from Russian troops that shows that the war against Ukraine was approved on 18th of January, and planned to start invading Ukraine on the 20th of Feb with the expectation to be done on March the 6th.
In a "stranger then fiction" twist it appears that the propaganda video made by Belarus showing it's dictator Lukashenko in front of a map showing Ukraine cut up in 4 pieces might be a actual map of the plans. And besides the cut up it shows an invasion of Moldavia by Russian troops from Odessa.
According to Interfax the Belarusian ambassador has been summoned by Moldovian's Foreign Ministry to explain. It is hard to grasp that the Belarus propaganda department could actually be that incompetent.
Ukraine claims that previous Ukraine dictator Yanukovych has been transported to Minsk to be installed as puppet regime. This while TV-towers in Ukrainian cities are being taken out.
The Ukrainian government claims that Russia will try to launch a disinformation and intimidation operation in order to subdue the civilian population, which might very well be truth, since Russia will get nowhere with the current army forces alone, so it might be desperate enough to try a massive misinformation campaign, even though it is deeply unlikely anybody in Ukraine will believe the obvious agitprop.
Russia is continuing to indiscriminately bomb cities in Ukraine that refuse to surrender while it stalls for time and waits for logistical problems to be solved and the rest of the army to join it.
Fighting in Kherson is still ongoing, despite earlier announcements.
The number of daily COVID19 cases in Hong Kong has risen to 55.353, leading to empty streets and overflowing hospitals / isolation centers, including 1939 children who have been hospitalized.
The city's government has ruled out a full lockdown after rumors lead to panic buying, a move that will probably be seen as "soft" in Beijing, although the situation in Hong Kong could also be used as a testbed of how livening with corona works out in practice as China itself needs to find a exit out of the pandemic, which will probably be a important topic in china's "two sessions" in a couple of days.
Hindu religious extremism continues to contribute to polarization and low level violence in India.
One of these days this will explode in a orgy of violence, unless the government actually condemns the violence, which is unlikely because the BJP party is its biggest instigator.
It appears that "Putin's war" can't be won by Russia anymore. We are now simply "going through the motions". The only sane action Russian has left is to limit it goals, and then declare victory, but that is difficult when you stated as motivation for your war that your enemies are degenerative drug addict Neo-Nazis doing genocide on Russian people. How do you walk back from that?
Russia is fighting against a +/- 10 million strong volunteer army. To pacify Ukraine the Russian army will need at least millions of soldiers, far more then the 170000 now active. But already it is facing big logistical problems, heavy losses and breakdowns, with a attrition rate far higher then the resupply rate. If it were to mobilizes the entire Russian society, it could bring the required amount of soldiers into the field. But even then the time to do a full mobilization and to transport those troops to the front-line is to long to prevent the Ukrainians from beating the current army back and destroying all military hardware it has. This all assumes that allies will manage to keep the Ukrainian army supplied with everything they need. It is unlikely though that the whole of Russia will go in full all-or-nothing war mode, to invade and destroy a nation that they very well know is not a mortal enemy. Other alternatives such as trying to shock the Ukrainians into submission with mass murder and/or flattening of entire cities is unlikely to lead to demoralization and accepting Russian rule. Even killing the Ukrainian leaders will only turn them into martyrs.
Ukraine and the US claim that Russian troops are suffering from big logistics problems which includes food and fuel.
It would explain why the huge convoy close to Kiev is not moving forward and why Russian troops are shoplifting.
Russia is doubling down on it's claims that Ukraine is seeking nuclear weapons, and at the same time wants be be a member of NATO - despite the fact that they would not need nuclear weapons in that case, because they would be under the US nuclear umbrella - while Belarus put up a propaganda show with a map of Ukraine divided in 4 pieces, signifying what the likely end plan is. Russia keeps repeating in it's TASS press releases that it has : "no plans to occupy Ukrainian territories and the goal was to demilitarize and de-nazify the country", along with the other blatant lies that they "were not delivering strikes against Ukrainian cities" / "Ukrainian military infrastructure was being destroyed by precision weapons and there was no threat to civilians".
Belarus claims in press releases that Ukraine was preparing to attack Belarus and Russia, not the other way around. It claims that it had no plans for war, and was totally surprised by "Ukrainian aggression" and plans of Ukraine to strike the huge amount of gathered Russian forces in Belarus, just as it was about to end its military exercises with Russia, in what must be the most unbelievable invasion excuse ever. Russia also doubled down on its main demand, which is that NATO and Russia should have spheres of influence, whereby Ukraine, the Baltic states and other former Soviet states should be in Russia's sphere of influence.
Russia has taken off the gloves and has started indiscriminate shelling and bombing of cities in Ukraine.
It has also succeeded in taking control of Kherson and has completed the land bridge between the Krim and Mariupol.
The diplomatic isolation of Russia by the developed world is almost complete with even neutral Switzerland joining in financial sanctions. Even Finland, the country known for the word 'finlandization' joined in sending weapons to Ukraine, while Russia is threatening with unspecified "consequences" to countries supplying weapons.
A cultural boycott has also followed with Russia being kicked out of football leagues.
Belarus has sent troops over the border with Ukraine to help Russia in the invasion of Ukraine.
It seems that just lopping missiles at Ukraine every now and then is not good enough anymore for Putin.
An estimate of how much the Kremlin misjudged the mood in Ukraine is that TASS, claimed that "experts" believed that the whole Ukraine invasion could be completed in 5 days.
See press release 1410663 from 25 FEB, 11:00 "Putin launches operation to de-nazify Ukraine ..."
Estimates about the size of the Russian army in Ukraine are: 149,000 troops, 2,840 tanks or armored vehicles, and an unspecified number of airplanes and helicopters. Ukraine claims to have killed or captured 9000 soldiers, and destroyed 1,385 tanks or other armored vehicles and shot down 29 airplanes, 29 helicopters and 3 UAV's.
At this rate Russia can't sustain it's efforts. It will probably switch to occupying the open spaces and try siege warfare on the cities.
Its hard to understate the big news from yesterday: Germany is massively increasing its military expenses, and is shedding it pacifistic feathers.
Since all of Russia's efforts since WW2 have been geared towards never again having to see dead in the eyes the way it had in those dark years, this is clearly the exact opposite of what its long term goals are.
Russia is moving the bulk of its northern army group towards Kiev and sending more troops to Sumy, while its ally Belarus is set to also send forces on the ground in Ukraine instead of just launching a rocket towards Ukraine every other day.
The big battle for Kiev will likely start tonight or tomorrow morning. In the south Ukraine is doing a counter-offensive near Tomak to cut of the Russian troops trying to create a land-bridge between the Krim and Donbas and recapture the naval base in Berdyansk.
Kosovo is requesting NATO membership, and the stationing of troops in the country.
It seems that it feels that bigger neighbors with a history of aggression cannot be trusted on their word alone.
The US, UK and France are warning their citizen to leave Russia immediately, as travel and trade with Russia quickly becomes impossible due to western sanctions.
The UK is considering banning all Russian ships from its ports, while Turkey announced it will close the Bosporus for Russian warships and the EU is set to ban all Russian state media.
Germany has announced it will increase it's defense spending by 100 billion euro per year in response to Russian's invasion of Ukraine. It will also build two LNG terminals, and take other measures to reduce any Russian gas dependency.
Russia has no idea of the forces it is unleashing, and what will happen if those are forces are directed against it.
Fighting in Ukraine continued with surprisingly bad results for Russia. Russian troops have either withdrawn or have been captured or killed in the cities Kiev, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kharkiv were the Russian offensive was ongoing.
So far Russia only managed to capture a number of small towns such as Konotop that were not actively defended and Melitopol. Everywhere were they came in contact with Ukrainian army groups augmented with volunteers they sustained heavy loses. The next Russian target is Mariupol, which they can attack from all sides, and from the sea.
Russia is now agreeing to talk with Ukraine without any preconditions such as unilateral Ukrainian disarmament and dispatching it's democratically chosen government.
Also the location won't be in Minsk, the capitol of it's ally Belarus, but in Gomel on neutral ground. Time is of the essence: The longer the war continues, the more likely that Russia will loose. But this could also mean that Russia will go for the big guns if Putin can't reach his objectives with a 'light touch' or negotiations.
There continue to be big demonstrations around the world against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, especially in Europe, but also in it's ally Belarus and even in 45 cities in Russia itself where more than 4000 people have been arrested for demonstrating against the invasion.
Denmark and the UK will allow volunteers to fight in Ukraine under the Ukrainian flag and European countries 'en bloc' closed their airspace to Russian, are giving weapons and financial aid to Ukraine, and announcing sanctions against Russia. Even pacifistic Germany en Russian fellow walker Hungary have turned, and the EU as organization is now going to buy and deliver arms to Ukraine. SWIFT sanctions have been agreed upon, and all developed counties have announced sanctions + trade restrictions against Russia, including traditionally neutral countries such a Sweden and Switzerland. In a reaction to the announced sanctions Russian banks in Europe are seeing a bank-run. Putin is now threatening that he will retaliate to financial sanctions against Russia by blowing up the whole world - including Russia - with nuclear weapons.
India refused to condemn Russian aggression in Ukraine and urged Ukraine to "resume dialogue" with Russia , claiming that its abstention allowed it to "continue reaching out to both sides of the conflict".
Russia is India's biggest military supplier, and has long running relations with India that are outdated, but not forgotten.
The SCMP reports that "US officials alerted China late last year of Russia’s impending plan to invade Ukraine, but Beijing passed Washington’s information along to Moscow with assurances that it would not try to stop any action".
which would confirm that China and Russia have decided to support each other in their respective aggressive foreign adventures. In related news North Korea and China have announced they will cooperate and renew friendship "under a new situation" with as goal to "together frustrate threats and hostile policies from the United States and its allies".
There are only small pockets of Russian soldiers left in Kiev, after heavy fighting and push-back, although Russia still has control of Antonov Airport in Hostomel.
And the Ukrainian defense ministry is warning that Russia has begun moving its reserve units to the borders of Ukraine, since only 1/3 of available forces had been committed.
A member of the ECB claimed it was a matter of days till Russia will be disconnected from the SWIFT inter-banking system, now that Hungary and Italy have stopped opposing cutting Russia off.
European countries are also starting to block their airspace to Russian airplanes, as Russia is becoming more and more isolated.
Heavy fighting continues in all of Ukraine, including it's capital Kiev. The Kremlin graciously offered negotiations with Ukraine under the precondition that Ukraine unconditionally surrenders first.
The much heavier resistance then expected has already lead to delays in Moscow's plans and will lead to the Russian army getting frustrated & using heavy weapons against civilians, which can lead to resistance under the population in Russia itself to this war. Russian troops are busy with another part of the plan: connecting the Donbas region to the Krim.
China and Russia are closing rank, as it becomes clear that China has stepped up oil stockpiling right after Putin's visit to Xi, and has lifted all wheat-import restrictions on Russia.
The prime-minister of bankrupt country Pakistan has also just traveled to Russia to get it to build a pipeline to Pakistan to provide it with cheap gas. The SCO is closing ranks. Expect China to go after her part of the deal (Taiwan) in the not-far-away future, especially now that it sees the western world doing nothing to prevent Russia from establishing her goal, which China will mistake for weakness, not the lack of security guarantees (which Taiwan does have).
Hunger might well increase around the world next winter with two of the most important grain exporters fighting or about to be subjected to sanctions.
Especially under-developed food importing countries with big populations such as Egypt are vulnerable.
Putin is calling upon the Ukrainian army to overthrow the "drug addicted Neo-Nazis" Ukrainian government in a coup, and enter negotiations with Russia about Ukraine's term of surrender.
Putin still believes that a small group of resentful degenerative Nazi's staged a CIA backed coup which was completely unsupported by normal people and resented by the army.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is continuing with very heavy fighting reported on all battlegrounds, but Russia is going for the jugular by taking the war into the outskirts of the capital Kiev itself, and the Ukraine army is resorting to calling upon it's citizen to throw Molotov cocktails towards any Russian troops.
It seems that the Russian leadership seriously miscalculated how much resistance they would encounter. Instead of mass surrenders, units melting away and "puppet" leaders fleeing abroad, people are fighting till the bitter end. It is therefore unlikely that capturing Kiev will end this war.
The Evergrande saga continues, with more development projects of the bankrupt developer being taken over by Chinese SOEs.
These properties are essentially worthless, which means that only the state is willing to buy them. Evergrande invested more than 12 billion dollar in them.
The Prime Minister of Finland clarified that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will change the debate around NATO membership within Finland, despite not facing a immediate threat.
Expect Finland, Sweden and Moldova to join NATO within a year.
Russian propaganda outlet RT claims that the Ukrainian military has launched attacks on Russian civilian ships in the Sea of Azov from the city of Mariupol.
This despite the fact the Russian state has banned all travel in the Sea of Azov through NOTMAR's.
The Ukrainian President has declared martial law, and proclaimed everybody who wants it will get a weapon to help fight the Russians. Ukraine claims to have shot down three helicopters, and six airplanes, which if true could indicate that the received stingers are making a significant difference.
Russia is warning news broadcasters that they are only allowed to publish "information" from official Russian sources.
Russia has started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on all sides - except from Transnistria - to completely conquer the country. Ukraine has closed it's complete airspace to civilian flights, so it can indiscriminately fire at everything in the air (it's air-force is hugely outnumbered).
Russia's dictator Putin claims that Ukraine is committing genocide on people in the Donbas region, despite the fact that those regions have been under complete control of Donbas independence fighters supported by Russian troops since the Minsk accords in 2015. He also calls the regime in Ukraine "Nazis", who are a "constant threat" to the "safety, development" and even "existence" of Russia. He claims that Ukraine is trying to developed nuclear weapons, and that Ukraine will "crawl into the Crimea, just like in the Donbas, in order to kill", and of course Putin claimed that all responsibility for bloodshed lies not with the invading army that has started shooting and bombing, but with the Ukraine government.
China has started a collaboration with the government of the Solomon Islands in which Chinese police forces will help maintain order and crowd control.
This after riots against the government and Chinese entrepreneurs, after big parts of the local population felt that it's new government was corrupt and had sold out to China, which led to riots against anything related to China. It is highly unlikely that these new actions will change the minds of the local population, and if China tries the policies it normally does inside China, it will cause huge push-back.
An attempt has been made to block OSINT accounts on twitter, etc, while US officials warn that 'uncoiling' of the Russian army is almost complete and a full-scale Russian invasion is imminent, most likely at Kharkiv, Ukraine.
They claim to have indications that Russia intents to use it's reserves and National Garde for long term operations in Ukraine.
More OSINT Russian troop and tank movements have been spotted, while the Kremlin announced it will go after all Donbas territories in Ukraine, including the parts that are now still under the control of Ukraine and it is evacuating it's embassies. It also reiterated it's earlier demands on Ukraine and NATO.
Ukraine declared a Nationwide Emergency, is calling up all reservists, will allow civilians to arm them-self and told Ukrainians in Russia to evacuate immediately.
China is announcing big tax cuts and financial support of more then $180 billion to local provinces to plug financial holes and help stimulate the economy.
land sales contribute at least 1/3 to the budgets of local provinces, many of which are already bankrupt, but are using LGFV's to keep debt of the books. Being creative with numbers is not just a national sport, but a necessary survival skill in China, since it is not a place where honesty is appreciated. LGFV debt is estimated to be at least $8 trillion dollar.
OSINT Russian troop and tank movements spotted in the Gomel region, Belarus, and in the Belgorod , Russia mere kilometers from the border might indicate that Russia is not just going to recognizes the independent Donbas region and put troops there.
Troops and tanks in Gomel suggest a run for Kiev itself.
The first noises coming out of Moscow are that "Russia recognizes the breakaway Ukrainian republics within borders that they currently control".
This suggests that Russia will not try to conquer the remaining parts of the Donbas region, and will simply move its troops in, but won't engage the Ukrainian army. It could also be misdirection to give a false sense of security. Also: German's new chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced deferring the Nord Stream 2 pipeline following Russia's actions, but western sanctions will be limited compared with a bloody invasion. Xi will look and learn.
Russia has invaded Ukraine's Donbas region. Putin helpfully explained on television that Ukraine is not a real country anyway, but just something that Lenin came up with. Since ethic Russians in the Donbas region were already de facto independent, and the whole operation was done in close coordination with the local leaders, this is happening without bloodshed, although it is not clear where they will stop.
Putin's televised rant for the most part boils down to: "I have been pushing around my little Ukrainian brother for his own good for his entire life, but instead of being grateful, he shouted at me to leave him alone, so I had no choice but to smash his face in". Read the whole thing. It gives a good window into Putin's mind.
Propaganda outlet RT claims that Ukraine wants to acquire nuclear weapons, and is attacking Russia and the independent Donbas region, which is calling Moscow for help.
The Russian Oryol region has declared a state of emergency. This is also the region where Russia has big numbers of tanks, ready to roll into Ukraine.
Belarus has announced that the Russian troops on its territory will probably stay there unless NATO removes forces from the Baltic states, Poland, Roumania, and other area's bordering Russia or Belarus.
It's a serious miscalculation if Russia or the dictator of Belarus thinks this would bother NATO, or that they could use this as a sort of bargaining chip. The rest of the population of Belarus has strong feelings about the permanent presence of Russian troops though.
Russia / The independence fighters in the Donbas region claim that Ukraine has launched several attacks against it, including the shelling of a Russia FSB border facility and sending Ukrainian "sabotage groups" over the border into the Donbas.
Russia isn't even bothering to come up with a believable lie. Follow all Ukraine events on: liveuamap.com
Commercial satellite images show pontoon bridges and anti-aircraft systems ready to be deployed from Belarus to Ukraine. Russia claims that Ukraine is shelling it's territory.
Expect an invasion the second the winter Olympic's are officially closed.
A nuclear proliferation deal between Iran and the US is nearing completion, with Iran saying that it can be done at the "at the earliest possible time", provided that the US takes the "necessary political decisions".
Lifting trade sanctions on Iran would unblock it's oil trade, which would lower the inflation, and help mitigate effects of sanctions on Russia. Iran is throwing in extra goodies, such as prisoner swaps, provided the US makes some concessions, including the immediate release of Iran's frozen assets.
The president of Ukraine called for actions, not appeasement in Munich, in what appears to be a bad re-run of Chamberlain's 1938 Munich agreement with Hitler.
Also seen before: an upcoming far eastern power is making assertive assertions that the US should have no role in Asia, while making aggressive noises to it's neighbors.
The independence fighters in control of Ukraine's Donbas region have announced a general mobilization of all available military forces and reserves for "repelling [Ukrainian] aggression".
The Kremlin cynically believes that everybody is corrupt and lying, so they don't even bother to put up a believable excuse, as long as they have a 'lie' to put against the 'other lie'.
The "Freedom convoy" in Canada is being broken up by the police, while a "People's convoy", in the US will head from Barstow, California towards Washington DC.
Canadian polls suggest that 2/3 of all responders oppose the protester's goals.
Russia announced it will test nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles on the 19th in the Barents Sea region, and will complete military exercises in Belarus on Sunday the 20th.
This while more then normal shelling is going on in the Donbas region, probably to try to provoke Ukraine to return fire, and create a Casus belli. Note that the 20th is the closing ceremony of the winter Olympics, which would mean that any serious action will likely start on the 21th.
Russian NOTMAR messages indicate that it not only plans missile launches in the Barents Sea, but also in the Laptev Sea, above Siberia.
All exercises are suppose to be over at Feb the 22th.
Ukraine's Donbas region, which is being surrounded by a massive Russian army from all sides, is calling upon it's citizen in the border region to evacuate into Russia, because they suspect that "mouse" Ukraine will choose this moment - when thousands of tanks, airplanes, artillery and helicopters are ready to invade Ukraine - to start a war of aggression.
And a primitive "false flag" operation has been made public. A car has exploded - without anybody getting injured - just outside the Donetsk People’s Republic seat of government. It sounds like Russia has decided to invade.
Russia and Ukraine are both reporting low-level military fighting beyond the scale of ceasefire violations routinely reported throughout the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
The idea that Ukraine would purposely heighten tensions, and start military adventures while a huge Russian army is standing by ready for any excuse to invade is a bit ridicules.
Hospitals in Hong Kong are overflowing, as more than 6000 new cases per day are reported.
The Chinese dictator who looks like Winnie-the-pooh has ordered to learn from the main-land, and called it a "mission overriding all others” to “exhaust all possible resources and manpower” and “adopt all necessary measures”, which means turning to heavy hand tactics in crushing the spread of the COVID19 variant omicron. People in Hong Kong are likely in for a bumpy ride.
The slow motion housing crash in China continues, with house sales evaporating, and foreign auditors of several real-estate firms quitting because of 'hidden debt' that is kept off the books.
Considering the ridiculous efforts of poster child Evergrande to not be officially bankrupt (which would open the books to outsiders), the practise of developers to buy banks to force them to loan them more, and the off-book loans that local governments are using, this is no surprise to anybody who has been following the situation.
Ukraine is suffering from Denial Of Service, attacks on it's banks and national institutions.
Although attribution is difficult, nobody doubts that Russia is behind it, and that it has more fireworks planned for this week.
The Russia / Ukraine standoff continues, with Russia holding military drills in the Kurile Islands, as a warning to Japan, while the US is claiming that key Russian units were moving towards the Ukraine border, not away from it.
Russia has also signed a trade deal with China for oil and gas, to try to compensate for possible sanctions and the US has announced it will increase it's defense budget.
Russia is withdrawing a small amount of it's troops, thereby defusing some of the tension, but also announced military exercises in the Mediterranean, and started military exercises in the Barents Sea.
Considering the fireworks still planed for the rest of the week till the 19th, and considering that the Olympics stop on the 20th, this is likely part of a negotiation tactic, not the end of hostilities.
India is again ordering the removal of Chinese apps from global appstores, for national security reasons.
Most of the applications in question are re-listings of the same apps that were removed before under different names. The app stores only ban them for Indian users. Tension between China and India remain high as both party's blame each other for not withdrawing troops from Eastern Ladakh. It also didn't help that China got one of the military officer involved in the Galwan Valley clash as a torch-bearer for the Winter Olympics.
Ukraine is now taking the Russian invasion threat seriously, and promised it will not become part of NATO, only to withdraw that statement within a day, while requesting direct talks with Moscow.
The World Bank, Western countries, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine and Ukrainian Oligarchs have all withdrawn from the country, and fights by several airlines have been canceled. Poland and Romania are making preparations for potential refugee camps. The Israeli IDF has announced it will 'watch and learn' from the hardware and methods used if a war breaks out.
Russia has repeatedly claimed it has no plans to launch an attack, and has said that Moscow should continue along the diplomatic path. Germany's leader travelled to Ukraine and announced extra aid, but will not offer weapons and does not mention the possibility shutting down North Stream. He will visit Moscow next and has called on Russia to pursue talks to ease tensions, while finance Ministers of the G7 warned Russia of "massive" economic consequences if it chose to invade Ukraine.
Energy markets are jittery as Russia-Ukraine tensions drag on while the US is warning it's chip-industry for shortages of palladium, neon, scandium and helium of which Russia is a big supplier.
Russia has plans to up the ante with major fireworks in the period just before the end of the Olympics. it has announced NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) warnings for the 16 - 19 February for “Rocket launches” in a huge area close to Norway for the testing of long-range ballistic missiles and/or hyper-sonic missiles. It also issued NOTAM notices for big chunks of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov between 13 and 19 February for live-fire naval exercises which will effectively blockade Ukraine's coastlines, while 14 landing-ships have arrived which could be used for a invasion from sea. Russian Armed Volunteers are also preparing for action in Eastern Ukraine.
NATO is continuing sending reinforcements to Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states. Norway inspected a underwater cable with an underwater vehicle and claims that the Svalbard cable break in January this year was done by humans. The cable is one of two cables that serve information from more than 100 satellite antennas, including military ones.
The "freedom convoys" continue to demonstrate in Canada, New Zealand, France, Belgium and The Netherlands without much success.
In Canada the police ended the occupation of the main transport bridge, in Brussels and The Hague protesters were told they can only continue on foot, in France the police used tear gas against a convoy and in New Zealand were Corona cases have exploded protesters are serenaded by Barry Manilow songs, to induce them to go.
no news
US Officials claimed to have picked up intelligence that specifies that Russia will invade Ukraine on Wednesday 16 February, leading western countries to call upon their subjects to leave Ukraine within 48 hours, while Ukraine is warning that Russia has blockaded it's ports and satellite images confirm continuing Russian military buildup near Ukraine.
Poker-game of not, it has lead send western countries scrambling and left them to come up with mostly empty handed responses.
Argentine the bankrupt country negotiating with the IMF over the term for yet another bailout, has joined the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Argentine is a major supplier of soya, which is used as a animal feed-stock around the world. Most BRI projects turned out expensive debacles for China though.
A caravan of truckers is closing in on Paris, the capital of France in an attempt to replicate the tucker blockades in Canada.
These "freedom convoy's" have threatened to continue to Brussels next.
A foreign affairs and defense correspondent for PBS NewsHour, has claimed on twitter that six US and Western officials have told him that: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and has communicated that decision to the Russian military"
Another quote: "It could begin during the Olympics, despite a lot of speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics.". This could be a ploy to extract concessions, since Putin is likely aware that these communications would leak out, but it should be taken as face fact.
China is opening the financial flood gates to try to compensate for slowing growth.
Just last month it's banks loaned out 626 billion dollars.
The Ukraine government refuses to directly negotiate with the Donbas independence fighters, which is a demand Russia has made.
They use as an excuse that this would let Russia of the hook for it's actions in the Donbas region, instead of considering them the aggressors. This excuse sidesteps the legitimate question of whether people in the Donbas region are sincere in their demands for greater autonomy, which is a fundamental right of any people. Meanwhile Russia is gearing up to recognize the Donbas region as a independent state, which like the Krim could be absorbed in the Russian republic.
The president of the US warned it's citizen that are still in Ukraine to "leave now".
Tensions remain high in the standoff between Russia and Ukraine, and although most observers think that the Kremlin only wants to extract concessions, a real danger exists that Russia will try to annex the Donbas region, and things can escalate into unknown territory if shooting starts. No hostilities are expected before the 20th of February, although the US Secretary of State has warned that an invasion could come at any time, including during the Olympics.
Scientists have described a plausible path to store nitrogen using helium at high pressures to force the creation of polymeric nitrogen, which will expand to N2 when excited.
Ultra compressed nitrogen has enormous energy density, and could power rockets, airplanes and cars instead of (liquid) hydrogen.
40 out of the 1915 SpaceX satellites have been destroyed by a solar flare.
They will fall back into the atmosphere, and burn up without doing any harm.
no news
Protests in Ottawa, the capitol of Canada are escalation with tuckers blocking it's parliament.
The prime minister has called upon the truckers to stop the protests, but has not engaged in direct talks.
COVID19 keeps on spreading in China and Hong Kong, with Baise, a city at the Vietnam bordering locking down, while Hong Kong reports hospitals at the edge of capacity.
Hong Kong is setting up quarantine camp and will allow people to self-isolate at home after it reached a new high of 600 cases on Monday, and it's tightening corona restrictions.
House sales plunged in January as the effects of the slow motion popping of the housing bubble in China continues.
And the trouble is not over as the uncoupling with the US is accelerating, with the US white house warning that China did not conform to the term of the phase-one trade deal, while adding 33 more Chinese companies to it's blacklist. This after part of parliament passed the America Competes Act, which aims to enhance competition with China.
Israel's police used spyware to hack the phones of basically anybody they felt like, including journalists and activists.
It seems that NSO is not just exporting Pegasus to dictators, but is also helping undermine democracy in it's own country.
Ottawa, the capitol of Canada has declared a state of emergency due to the ongoing protests and blockades by truckers against it's COVID19 policies.
The protests have morphed from a specific truckers protest to a general protest.
Cyclone Batsirai has killed at least 6 people, and displaced almost 48000 people in parts of Madagascar.
Storm Ana went over it first, and Batsirai finished the job. Electricity and water are still partly down.
COVID19, or rather it's cousin Omicron continues to spread around the world, with New Zealand and Hong Kong having lost control over it's spread, Cambodia deciding to 'live with the virus' and North Korea conducting surprise disease-control inspections and building quarantine hospitals to deal with the virus that has clearly grown out of control.
China's propaganda outlet GlobalTimes is reporting that a Omicron outbreak in Hangzhou has spread to Anshun, Shangrao, Luotian and Huanggang, and claiming that: "Flare-ups cannot be eradicated amid such realities", which might be indicative of a change in policy from COVID-Zero towards living with the virus, although no official change of policy can be expected while the eyes of the world are on China with the winter Olympic still going on, since saving face is considered more important then human suffering or economic hardship. Meanwhile, most of the developed word is past it's peak in cases.
Montenegro’s government stepped down on Friday after a parliamentarian vote of no-confidence.
Montenegro is governed by Milo Djukanovic a deeply corrupt clan/Mafia boss who is considered one of the twenty richest world leaders.
Tether / Bitfinex / iFinex is suing to prevent publication of it's balance sheet by the NYAG, who was ordered by a judge to provide this information in response to a Freedom of Information request.
The Financial Times has already revealed that Tether is using it's USD linked stable-coin to buy up bitcoin, to artificially pump up the value of it's own holdings of bitcoins, so that it appears solvent on paper, but the scale of this pumping operation is not yet known. If it turns out that almost all of it's holdings are in other crypto currencies it will trigger a 'bank run', and the value of USDT will drop to zero.
no news
Medical isotopes for cancer-scans worldwide are becoming scarce now that not only the Belgium but also the Dutch nuclear reactor that makes them has been closed for repairs.
The Dutch reactor alone would supply 50% of the worldwide demand.
Israel has announced it is going to have laser-based missile interceptors operational this year.
It makes no sense to intercept a 10 thousand dollar rocket out of the sky with another rocket that costs 1 million dollars.
Inflation in Turkey jumped to more then 55% last year, driven by the combined impact of global inflation, the huge drop in value of the lira, and people moving their money out of the country.
The monetary policy of it's "mad uncle" leader have lead to hyper-inflation. Of course the leader has reacted to the news by firing the bringer of said bad news, the head of the state statistics agency and threatening and jailing journalists but is also raising the minimum wage by 50 percent.
Another crypto-hack was revealed. This time on Wormhole, with a total loss of 320 million US dollar.
Previous big hacks were 610 million in Poly Network, 196 million from BitMart, 530 million from Coincheck, 148 million from Cream Finance, 140 million from Vulcan Forged, 120 million from Badger Finance. The list of smaller hacks is to long to even mention. And OpenSea had a bug that allowed people to steal NFT's last week.
India is following China in announcing a central bank controlled digital currency.
A central bank controlled digital currency is the equivalent of a state-run PayPal service.
The Russia / Ukraine standoff continues, with Ukraine preparing to boost it's armed forces with 100,000 extra soldiers, and receiving huge shipments of weapons from the US, Poland, UK. While Russia is surrounding Ukraine from Belarus, Transnistria, The Krim and has a small fleet with 60 tanks and soldiers on it's way to the Black Sea, and even moving troops and helicopters from the far east towards Ukraine's borders.
Time is not on Russia’s side in Ukraine. The US has drawn out responses, giving Ukraine time to prepare. But the high stakes Kremlin poker game is drawing slowly to a close as the Winter Olympics are set to start in a couple of days, and any Russian action is not expected to start until after the end of the Olympics at February 20 in a effort not to offend strategic ally China which has explicitly asked Russia not to do anything to disturb the Olympics. Any military action is expected to take place before the thaw sets in which would make massive militarized deployment much harder. People on the street in Moscow do not think that war is imminent, and consider it a game of extracting concessions, which would fit normal Russian behavior. But unintended misunderstandings have their own dynamics, and events are impossible to control after shooting has started.
Egypt has arrested and disappeared a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, who was flying over it's airspace.
It seems that Belarus has set a bad example.
Moderna has started clinical trials of vaccines for both the Epstein-Barr and the HIV virus.
Epstein-Barr causes Multiple Sclerosis and HIV causes AIDS, which is now medically manageable, but still a huge problem in Africa. The break through in mRNA technology accelerated by COVID19 has some positive side-effects.
Economic tensions due to inflation, and geographic tensions caused by the standoff between NATO and Russia continue.
Insecurity and the general feeling that economic recovery is stalling are adding to a bearish outlook.
China has demonstrated the ability of using a satellite to grab another satellite, and dropping it in lower orbit, to burn up in the atmosphere, while the US military is looking for contractors that can help clean up dangerous space debris. The JMS, a US platform for keeping track of debris floating is space is shutting down, for failing to perform it's duties, after huge expenses.
Satellites, including GPS systems are widely seen as a crucial domain for warfare, and the first domain in which battle will be done if a future war were to break out.
Truckers in Canada are protesting a vaccine mandate for drivers crossing the US / Canadian border, while US telecom giant T-Mobile has announced it will fire employees that refuses to vaccinate against COVID19.
One has to ask oneself if bodily integrity is a fundamental right if it can not effectively be enforced. Do you really have the freedom not to be vaccinated, if this means that you can't participate in society (2G policy) or even have a job? Freedom is not devoid of consequences, but the greater good does not override basic liberties, no matter the intentions.
no news
Deash is becoming more active in the Middle-East and parts of the Africa, Sahel region, with a large scale attempted prison break in Kurdish controlled area's in Syria, attacks in Eastern Iraq, reported successful recruiting in Lebanon, and bombings in Afghanistan. Bombs going of during the Paris-Dakar rally have also been linked to Death affiliated groups.
It is also active in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso were coups and political turmoil have both been created by the guerilla war, and military figures have claimed that the coups are a reaction due to inaction by the civilian government. The situation there is likely to become worse as France and Denmark are withdrawing their troops. As usual the conflicts build upon farmer/nomadic conflicts and old ethic conflicts.
no news
Developed countries around the world are preparing rate hikes, to cool down inflation brought about by shifting demand and transportation problems.
Inflationary shocks will continue to wrinkle through the world for a while, with the world adjusting to the new normal. Raising interest rates can't do anything to change that, although it will reduce demand by cooling down the economy and therefore limit price rises.
Burkina Faso has had a coup by the military.
Whatever...
The Evergrande real-estate slow-motion crash continues, with reported bailouts for developers that are in financial trouble such as Agile Group and Shimao Group, while the director of the government owned "Bad Bank" company (China Cinda Asset Management) has been parachuted in on the board of directors of Evergrande, to help clean the mess.
In China Xi's purge of the CCP, and it's military arm the PLA continues in full force.
In China everybody in upper layers of society is corrupt, starting with patronage networks, and collaborating cliques, to full blown extortion. An anti-corruption drive in China is about replacing corrupt people with equally corrupt people loyal to you.
The UK accuses Russia of trying to install a puppet regime in Ukraine, while tensions in Ukraine remain high, and foreign countries move to reduce the staff of their embassies.
In the Netherlands LNG imports have rising to the highest on record, in an attempt to mitigate potential problems if Russia where to cut gas deliveries to Europe.
no significant news
The financial intelligence company REDD brought out a report stating that Evergrande is "significantly insolvent", and showed that the local government detailed a restructuring path forward that would pay foreign bond holders with sales of foreign assets of Evergrande, which would also wipe out it's chairman's 60% stake in the company.
This after foreign bond-holders threatened to sue, which could lead to confiscations of those foreign assets anyway, and deeply undermine global trust in Chinese bonds.
China continues its Japanese style unwinding of the real-estate crisis with the effective nationalization of developer Aoyuan, which lately stated it could not make payments on all it's offshore debt. It is furthermore easing escrow accounts rules, lowering mortgage rates, easing loan requirements for developers that are not completely insolvent and allowing the issuance of local government bonds to boost development.
The failed issuance of Country Garden's $300 million convertible bond last week and the release of data that outlines further weakening in consumer consumption and a deep fall in sales in property sector show that it still has a long way to go to even reach stabilization of the market.
Financial markets all over the world are jittery and turning bearish as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and the Nasdaq take a dive while local conflicts are smoldering and escalation of the situation in Ukraine and potential Taiwan threaten to escalate in a full blown war.
The persistent inflation has triggered a Fed response, which will hit the overheated housing market, and probably end the Bitcoin/crypto bubble. This while profit of companies is threatened by the triple combination of higher cost of borrowing, higher prices of commodities, enduring supply chains issues and higher wages. This time China won't be able to keep the engine running, as China itself is being hit by capital outflows, regulatory crackdowns, wiping out of entire sectors, the imploding real-estate sector, local governments drowning in debt, diversification of supply chains due to nationalistic rhetoric, writing off of bad loans in BRI countries, inflation due to higher costs of commodities, weak consumer spending, the zero COVID19 policy, and the end of the demographic dividend. This while most emerging markets are struggling with inflation.
Hong Kong recruiters report that it is impossible to get people from outside of China to migrate and work in Hong Kong, due to China's "reforms" and to a minor extend: COVID19.
Hong Kong is dead, long live Hong Kong.
New Zealand is preparing for a major outbreak of COVID19 omicron cases, as an active locally transmitted cluster has been found.
The prime minister of New Zealand has announced that there won't be full lockdown, which makes it more plausible that it's spread can't be contained.
SCO members China, Russia and Iran have completed naval exercises in the Indian Ocean.
The SCO (minus India) is China's preferred vehicle of defense influence, and is shaping up to become the new Axis Powers with China in the driving seat. The exercise is in the first place a signal to India.
The director of China's Tsinghua University's Institute of International Studies, has warned that in a widely discussed lecture that China's students have unbelievably biased views. students nowadays : "usually have a strong sense of superiority and confidence, and they tend to look at other countries from a condescending perspective, look at international relations through wishful thinking and believe that China's foreign policy goals can be achieved easily. They think humankind's universal values such as peace, morality, fairness and justice are China's inherent traditions. They think that only China is just, while other countries, especially Western countries, are evil."
This is not a surprise for people who have been following China's media, since it's heavily biased towards wishful thinking and full of propaganda. Students are not old enough to really understand that China's media is lying all the time, about everything.
Another test xeno-transplant world has been done, in which a brain-dead patient got a pig's kidneys.
Just as the earlier transplant the kidneys are from a genetically modified pig. That patient is still alive and but observation.
Things remain messy in Pakistan, a bankrupt country hard stricken by inflation and rising COVID19 numbers. Deadly attacks have been committed by the Taliban and separately by Baloch independence fighters and home-brew hysteria around nonsense blasphemy accusations continues.
Only a last moment Saudi and IMF loan prevented the country from not being able to import food,
Tensions between NATO and Russia continue, with the president of the US saying that he expects a limited Russian invasion, Baltic states shipping weapons to Ukraine, the US discloses it has a guided-missile submarine, and other military ships in the region, and the US is threatening sanctions against Russia including cutting of access to international payment markets and chips. But NATO also made clear from the start it wont help Ukraine military, so Russia is free to take military action.
Meanwhile investors continue to dump Russian stocks while the Russian central bank calls for a ban on crypto-currency to prevent an outflow of money out of the country. Kremlin spokesman have called the threat of sanctions the wrong signal if tensions are to be reduced. Human Right Watch has warned that a new language law proposed by Ukraine is not taking interests of minority languages such as Russian into account.
The US delays rollouts of 5G around airports as it has become clear that 5G signals from cell tower antennas disrupt not only radio based altimeters, but also fly-by-wire flight control system.
5G can use several frequencies, and other countries choose not to allow specific frequencies to be used around airports. Also: the problem only appears if a airplane uses bad quality altimeters.
In most developed countries that have detected the COVID19 variant omicron, the number of cases is falling, while hospitalizations remain low.
Most developed countries have a high vaccination rate, which could have helped keep hospitalizations low, but it is clear that omicron should be treated as a flue, not a deadly disease. If the world is lucky this means we've reached the end of the pandemic, and moved into normal territory again.
Signals that Russia might invade Ukraine remain high, as Russia is sending families of embassies in Ukraine back to Russia, will start training exercises in Belarus near the Ukraine border on February the 10th, and is moving (amphibious) ships from the Baltic fleet towards the Black sea.
This while the UK, Canada and Turkey are shipping weapons to Ukraine, and politicians such as the US foreign affairs minister and the Dutch prime minister are traveling to Ukraine to give diplomacy a chance.
Scientists claim to have managed to have cured AIDS in mice.
It remains to be seen if this also works for humans, but the study - which was published in Nature - is credible.
The tsunami and volcanic eruption close to Tongo has so far lead to at least 2 deaths, and dozens of houses destroyed.
News could still worsen when news from smaller islets comes in.
human Rights Watch is pointing out that human rights have are under pressure, or are degrading in the whole of Latin America.
This should come as no surprise to most people, since it's the same all over the world, even in countries in Eastern Europe. Only longtime democratic countries, and developed Asian countries are holding the line.
A volcanic eruption close to Tongo in the pacific has caused a Tsunami.
Although communication lines are not up yet, first reports suggest that the damage is limited, with no loss of life so far reported. New Zealand has send ships and aid, and is ready to provide assistance.
Microsoft, the maker of the Windows operating system reports that Russian cripple-ware has infiltrated large numbers of computers in Ukraine and is awaiting orders to strike.
Combined with Russian threats to place nuclear missiles in Cuba and shenanigan with gas supplies it is clear that Russia is playing poker. Expect a limited invasion in the Ukraine, Donbas region if Russia does not get it's way, but no major escalation.
the Genocide Watch group is warning against genocide and/or expulsion of Muslims in India.
The current BJP government has created an environment of extreme polarization in India, with Muslims and Christians and - to a minor extend - Dalits on the receiving end.
Research found that the extremely common Epstein-Barr virus creates Multiple Sclerosis.
The virus stays resident in immune B-cells, and these B-cells seem to attack the myelin around neurons, although the exact method of action is still unknown.
Transport problems like shipping costs are leading to empty shelfs and price rises in the US.
More inflationary pressures that will likely continue far into 2022.
Tensions in the standoff between Russia and NATO continues, with the US warning that they have intelligence that Russia is planning a false flag operation as a flimsy pretext to invade Ukraine.
Nobody would seriously believe that dysfunctional Ukraine would launch a attack against big neighbors Russia, but that is often not the point of a false flag operation. Sources like the Moscow Times believe that the Kremlin is bluffing, and it is very well likely that Putin wants to cement his legacy as he heads toward the exit now that the US is heavily focused on China. The implicit threat is that if Russia doesn't get what it wants, then it could join forces with China in order to achieve it's goals in a future war, while if it does get what it want, it will stay neutral in a future conflict (think: Taiwan).
Beijing, the capital of China has registered it's first local case of the COVID19 variant omicron. Also cases were reported in Guangdong, Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Xian, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Dalian, Tianjin, Anyang and Hong Kong.
Cracks are appearing in the zero COVID strategy, but expect no change in policy until at least the end of the winter Olympics. The CCP would rather lock up the entire country than loose face.
Russia has launched massive amounts of cyber-attacks on Ukraine.
After talks went nowhere, Russia now want to pressure Ukraine and the US to comply with it's demands for buffer countries between it and any NATO forces.
Mortgage rates have been going up in the US, and are likely to follow in other developed countries.
Higher rates will significantly cool the housing market, and might reverse the huge real-estate price rises we've seen the last 10 years. Higher interest rates will also increase borrowing costs for companies, which will decrease profits, and drive down P/E ratings, signaling a popping of the stock market bubble.
In the latest installment of China's real estate slow-motion train crash: Evergrande got a 6 month deference in paying bonds in China.
China's government is following Japan's play book in spreading the pain over many years and multiple actors.
According to a former US federal prosecutor it is highly likely that the former president of the US is about to be prosecuted for trying to interfere in the election results of the US state of Georgia.
Georgia has started a investigation, and the former prosecutor thinks that a latest unhinged remark points to a meeting between his lawyers and state prosecutors.
The Democratic Party in the US is making preparatory moves to remove the filibuster which enables their opponents to block almost all legislation, in order to make the senate functional, and pass legislation to protect voting against voting laws effectively block access to voting.
Deep reform towards a parliamentary system is necessary to abolish the two party system. Abolishing the filibuster will only make it easier for the next republican fascist candidate to push through laws that will transform the US into a banana-republic.
Inflation around the world is here to stay for now.
Even if it is transitory, the effects have already rippled through the economy, which won't revert if supply lines return to normal.
The china real-estate slow-motion trains wreck continuous with another developer - Yuzhou - in trouble, while Agile Group and Sunac China Holdings are trying to raise funds.
Evergrande is trying all out to become a car manufacturer, in a desperate afford to prevent an official bankrupt, even though it already defaulted on foreign bonds.
In highly populated area's all over the world omicron seems set to peak next week
hospitals are close to their max, but still coping due to a very low hospitalization rate.
Russia still threatens to invade Ukraine if it doesn't get what it wants.
Putin is playing poker with a bad hand, but could do a lot of damage in the short term, especially since the US has already announced it will not come to Ukraine's aid.
Taiwan will soon have more electric scooter battery swap stations than gas stations, according to electric scooter manufacturer Gogoro.
Using a electric battery plan heavily reduces the costs of the scooter, and solves any range and charging time issues. Expect electric scooters to become the default mode of transportation, and expect other (electric boats, etc) to hop-on onto this ecosystem (why build a car with a huge when you use these?).
no significant news
China under Xi (the Winnie the Pooh lookalike without a sense of humor), is drumming up the rhetoric with more calls to show no mercy against corruption.
In a normal country a anti-corruption drive would be good news, but in a country where all the people in charge are corrupt this simply means a crackdown against other fractions.
The first serious xeno-transplant in the world has been performed, in which a patient got a pig's hart.
The patient is fine for now. The hart is from a genetically modified pig, so it's cells don't contain the markers that normally leads to rejection / attacks from the immune system.
More cities in China are locking down to control the omicron COVID19 outbreak.
The winter Olympics are about to start, and China would rather kill 1 million of it's citizen, than loose face.
no news
The crackdown on protesters in Kazakhstan continues with lethal force, while signals have risen that internal power struggles between the clans of the former and the current dictator also play a role.
Fishing in troubled water..
The slow-motion train-crash that is China's real-estate sector continues, with the default of Shimao Group, and with the government pushing healthy companies to take over their weaker brothers, in a stoke for stoke rerun of the Japanese housing bubble crash.
And just as Japan has had a aging population, China has a aging population, but Japan had a high quality tech-sector, and was not making enemies all over the place.
The current dictator of Kazakhstan, has ordered troops to shoot all "foreign terrorists" as he calls the protesters.
He also called them "criminals and murderers", and "armed criminals"
Although hospitalization rates due to omicron are low, GB is deploying military doctors to help the NHS deal with the double whammy of people getting sick, and staff being sick and forced to isolate. while in the US and most other countries hit with omicron unnecessary surgeries are being suspended to allow more IC beds for corona patients.
More clusters of Omicron is causing desperate shutdowns as China doubles down on it's COVID-zero strategy, with individual cases of people in Xian literally dying outside of hospitals because they would not be allowed in because of missing corona-tests, and people complaining of lack of food since they are not allowed to go outside. Giving up on the COVID-zero strategy would mean loss-of-face for China, particularly now just one month in front of the winter Olympics, and the CCP itself does not believe in the quality of it's own vaccines. Also: China's health-care system is crap.
Russia has send para-troopers to Kazakhstan, to help shoot protesters.
Duhhh
Evergrande, the poster-child of the Chinese real-estate bubble, has announced that it wants to delay outstanding debts within China.
This after it already defaulted on foreign debt, and announced that it want to spread out payment of it's "wealth management product" (loans from consumers) out over a bizarre long time.
Demonstrations and riots triggered by high fuel prices in Kazakhstan have led to the fall of it's current government.
It remains to be seen if anything really changes, since it's widely assumed in Kazakhstan that the old dictator is still pulling the strings behind the curtain.
The 5 major nuclear powers have signed a statement saying "nuclear war cannot be won", which is being interpreted in China as a agreement to a "no first use" of nuclear weapons.
The full statement in the communique is: "We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons for as long as they continue to exist should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented. "
Demonstrations continue in Sudan, and a compromise agreement between the military and elected politicians is now in shambles with the resignation of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.
The military has shot several demonstrators, but has not resorted to all out violence yet.
No significant news
No significant news
Amsterdam, the capital of The Netherlands looks set to have a bumpy Sunday, after a hard-core of anti-vaxers has announced unapproved demonstrations on that day, which have turned into riots before, while the police has announced a strike on that day.
The police strike was suppose to be confidential, but leaked out. Despite this the police announced that they would continue the strike against high work pressure anyway.
The bird-flue pandemic has now reached all parts of Europe.
Another one that comes every year from China.
Omicron cases have gone up explosively around the world, but it appears that T-cells - part of the immune system - can easily deal with Omicron, provided that a person has been in contact with another COVID19 variant or vaccinated.
In China the government is doubling down on it's COVID-zero strategy, with local government acting more and more hysterical, which leads to excesses such as human smugglers being derided in public, and food shortages for people locked up in Xi'an where the lockdown has been expanded and extended.
No significant news
No significant news
The president of failed state Somalia disposed the prime minister, in what can only be described as a coup.
Somalia exists as a city state with tribal areas around it, which are all self-governed. The only reason the government exists is the presence of African Union peace-keepers. Somalia shows clearly that western style parliamentary democracy does not work in areas that are not homogeneous, and should instead go for a federated democracy where only foreign policy is done by the state.
There are strong indications that omicron is not more contagious than the delta COVID19, but is simply working faster.
This would mean it is ahead of the curve, but not spreading faster. It would explain the "flash mob" properties in ZA where it comes with a bang, and disappears as quickly as it came.
Locals transmitted cases of omicron the latest COVID19 variant, have been detected in the Chinese cities of Tianjin, Changsha, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
It is unknown if the big cluster in Xi'an is also omicron. It remains to be seen if the march of omicron can be halted, or if the virus will spread faster then China can lock people up.
The US's James Webb Space Telescope has successfully launched.
Fundamental answers to questions about the formation of the universe are within reach, including the role of dark matter in the formation of early galaxy's.
Countries around the world are putting extra measures into place to slow down the spread of omicron
Wait and see
A board director of the China Banknote Printing and Minting Corporation, part of China's central bank is investigated for printing approx. 2 trillion Yuan for personal purposes.
it is a clear sign of how deep the rot is in China that something like this can happen. Scandals like this were covered up and washed away by the huge economic boom, but now that growth is lagging China can't afford these kind of scandals. The problem of course is that he was not acting alone, and that he was likely protected at the highest levels within the CCP.
China is furious at Alibaba, a huge e-commerce and infrastructure company in China, that is has not reported the Log4j bug to the government, so that it could weaponize it.
Which is of course exactly the reason why the open source hackers did not report it to the government first. They would have been forced to keep it hidden, and the whole world would be insecure.
Studies so seem to suggest that omicron has a hospitalization rate that is 1/3 of other COVID19 variants.
A five times faster spread still means overflowing hospitals if nothing is done to bring down the speed of spread, but this is hopeful news.
The US is testing a new program, called "rapid dragon", designed to use existing civilian airline planes to launch anti-ship cruise missiles.
It seems like the US is anticipating a conflict with China which requires it to rapidly launch huge amounts of anti-ship missiles to fend of a Chinese marine invasion Taiwan involving China's maritime militia. Meanwhile, China is giving farmers subsidies if they switch from crops like flowers and fruit to rice and soybeans, with the explicit goal of making the country self-sufficient in food, while it prepares for war with the US, which it claims is justified, because: "lots of people in China want to invade Taiwan".
Growth in China is slowing down, despite regulators making easy leans available to small companies.
China's economy depends on 4 main drivers: Export (+/- 20% of GDP), Housing ( +/- 30% of GDP), government / infrastructure spending (around 20% of GDP), and domestic consumption (+/- 30% of GDP). Since local government already have huge off-book debts, and land sales make up a big chunk of the income, as much as 50% of GDP is under pressure. More exports is unlikely, since foreign company's are diverting supply chains away from China because of: higher wages, insecure economic politics under Xi, and Geo-national tensions, again thanks to Xi's policy's. Domestic savings can't compensate, since most savings are held in real-estate, and those savings are not just highly illiquid, but are also fast dropping in value.It also doesn't help that Xi outlawed several sectors of the economy, because of Xi's paternalistic moralism. The only option left is cost reduction (hence "Dual Circulation"), but China is not far enough up on the value-chain to cut foreign suppliers. Also: foreign import are the only leverage China has left (again thanks to Xi's nationalistic policies).
China's bank regulator is stimulating take-overs and mergers of real-estate companies and making loans available for doing so, while the major propaganda outlets emphasize the need for economical stability in a sign that the impact of the real-estate bubble collapse is starting to get real.
It is trying to engineer a Japanese style soft landing, that will spread and defuse the pain, but this lead to the famous lost decade in Japan.
According to the Daily NK - a website dedicated to news from North Korea, run by defectors - anybody found in NK with We-Chat is now automatically prosecuted as a spy.
There is a lively smuggling network running between China and NK, and People in NK have no other means of communicating than by connecting to cell-towers close to the Chinese border.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Israel's army has updated it's rules of engagement to allow soldiers to shoot fleeing rock and Molotov-cocktail throwers in the back.
In Hollywood movies it's not the good guys who shoot their opponent in the back.
House prices in Australia are falling as it's housing market is following the fallout of the collapse of the Chinese housing bubble.
Chinese buyers were responsible for much of the rising house-prices in Australia.
Omicron is now responsible for the fast majority of US and UK COVID19 cases, as the new wave is rolling over the world.
Australia and the UK have ruled out lockdowns, because why would you learn from earlier mistakes? Meanwhile China is testing millions to battle a major outbreak in Xi'an and India confirmed Omicron cases in more then 12 states, and the WHO warned that there are no indications that omicron is milder then Delta.
Investigations into the dead of migrants trying to cross the Chanel between France and the UK confirm that the coast guards of these countries don't bother rescuing migrants trying to cross.
It confirms signals from Greece, Hungary, Poland and Italy that the EU migrant policy is fundamentally bankrupt. It should be replaced with a policy where asylum has to be requested at a local embassy, and/or online.
The World is holding it's breath while omicron is spreading with lighting speed through the world - developed countries first - in what seems like a fast replay of the first COVID19 outbreak.
The question is mostly how much hospitalizations this variant will cause. We will know the answer in less then 2 weeks.
NASA has found the equivalent of wet soil in a deep huge canyon on Mars.
This is likely very salty, and is either wet soil, or permafrost.
The Netherlands announced a near complete lockdown to deal with a expected exponential rise of omicron, a COVID19 variant.
For the first time since the COVID19 pandemic started the Netherlands decided to actively take measures before it is to late.
Omicron is spreading with alarming speed in the World, with a doubling rate counted in 1 to 3 days, due to it's ability to not only spread faster than Delta, but also to infect vaccinated people.
And the only upside, a less troubling sickness escalation might not be true, according to a Danish study.
China has stepped in, and effectively taken over Evergrande's management, to manage the unwinding of the company's debts in the latest episode of the slow-motion crash of the real-estate bubble.
Expect more Chinese real-estate companies to follow.
Omicron is spreading rapidly around the world, with most developed countries that have any variant monitoring reporting local cases.
Hold on to your hat. We could be in for a bumpy ride.
The government of the UK is limping from failure to disaster, with both parties having lost confidence in PM Boris Johnson.
He seems to be an effective communicator provided that others take care of the hard work of actually knowing what you are talking about and doing the right thing, but a court where he is the center, and all critical voices have been removed is clueless, paralyzed and stumbling.
Another zero-day security exploit is doing the rounds on the internet, leading to frantic patching.
log4j allows arbitrary lookups of user-specified strings, which can also be expanded into local Unix commands. The problem in the case is that software such as Elastic Search (ES), which is used for storing massive amounts of data uses Apache struts, which in turn uses log4j. Same for some other widely used backend software.
Pakistan, a notorious - nuclear armed - crazy country, that only exports violent Islamist terrorists, has decided to establish a universal health care system and a food aid program for the poor.
The Pakistani economy is bankrupt, and is now only propped up by Saudi aid. Crippling inflation has made daily life more difficult and the local Taliban is trying to kill cricket-players after renouncing a cease-fire, but this is a clear step in the right direction.
Israel asked the US to speed up delivery of new in air refueling airplanes.
Israel want to be able to strike Iran next year, but the US wants the airplanes delivered in 2023, probably to give negotiations about Iran's nuclear program a change.
In the UK the number of Omicron COVID19 cases has gone up by 65% in the last 4 days, to a total of 3137 which is clearly exponential.
Luckily all reports indicate so far that Omicron is much less aggressive than the delta variant leading to less hospitalizations, but it might make up for this in sheer numbers that could overwhelm the hospitals. The best case would be that Omicron is so mild that it would be like a seasonal flu - but one that also helps people's immune-system against the Delta variant - and therefore acts like a sort of natural vaccine, ending the corona-epidemic and leaving variants of omicron as a normal flue.
Turkey's valuta de-valuated further, thanks to the economic policies of it's "crazy uncle" dictator.
Not coincidently this man now wants to control social media, labeling it a "threat to democracy".
no news
Serbians in Bosnia have voted "yes" on taking steps to start breaking up the Bosnia's country.
As long as it happens peacefully, and in normal collaboration, any group of people should be allowed their independence.
Information has showed up about the aftermath of the US 2020 elections that clearly show that the events of January the 6th 2021 were not a simple demonstration getting out of hand, but the result of conscious decision-making.
For one, there was a crack team that was dedicated to "proving that the elections were a fraud", and also pressure was there all the time to declare a "State of Emergency" because of alleged foreign hacking of voting machines. The only thing that stopped most of the attempts, was that people in Trump's own administration and ministries declared that they would not go along. If not America would have had it's first fascist coup.
Tehreek-e-Taliban, the Taliban in Pakistan has announced an end to it's cease fire agreement with the Pakistan government.
Pakistan's long term behavior of breeding religious extremists nutters to fight proxy wars is backfiring. Who would have thought that religious extremists are not willing to compromise?
China's real-estate market has come to a abrupt stop, as everybody in China believes house prices will crash.
Houses are no longer seen as a save investment vehicle, a development made worse by the looming property tax, which itself is necessary to prevent all local government in China from going bankrupt. This of course also means that the book value of all unsold apartments and ground plots of the big real-estate companies in China has become zero.
China is escalating it's economic trade war against tiny Lithuania in a case of "killing the chicken to scare the monkey", by threatening international companies that they will be blocked in China if they trade with Lithuania. The EU is trying to negotiate, but got snubbed by China.
This will predictably lead to EU member countries closing ranks, and a trade war between China and the EU, besides the ones it already has against Australia, The US, Canada, Taiwan, Japan, and soon the rest of the world. The big question is how long it will take for the world to kick China out of the WTO, since it has never abided by any of it's rules.
According to Fitch, an international rating agency, the Chinese real-estate companies Evergrande and Kaisa are now in a "restricted default", signaling that the slow-motion crash is now getting in a new phase.
"restricted default" is code for: they couldn't pay, and should declare default because those are the terms of the contract, but instead they are hoping it will all go away if they pretend it doesn't exist, and when you finally twist their arm, they will try to negotiate. But in this case negotiations are useless, since there are simply no money or useful assets left. Best case outcome is that money is raised through new shares to pay haircuts on outstanding bonds, and after that the shareholders discover that their shares are worthless.
China's Winnie the Pooh look alike is pushing for extra-territorial application of Chinese laws.
It's really annoyed that people in other countries say that it's brutal dictatorship, that lets people disappear if they say anything about it, and wants a way to make those people disappear.
Evergrande failed to pay 82.5 million dollar, that was due on 6 November - and had outlived it's grace period - which should start official cross-loan bankruptcy proceedings.
Don't could on Evergrande declaring bankruptcy though, expect it to attempt to haggle. In China failure to adhere to agreements is not the end of a relation, but just the start of negotiations.
No news
Researchers find that the new spreading COVID19 variant Omicron has a most likely picked up a part of a normal flu virus, and reports indicate so far that Omicron is less deadly than other variants.
Which would be a good thing considering that omicron has escaped attempts to halt it's spread.
In China officials are signaling that Hong Kong's laws take second place after Chinese constitutional laws, which is opening the door to stripping any remaining rule of law protections that still exist in Hong Kong.
This after 'special government advisers' took over in Macao, in a further centralization drive for total control from Beijing. Taiwan will surely take notice.
Real estate company's in China are seeking asset-backed securities, in a way to bypass the "3 red lines" that limit further lending, in a attempt to prevent outright bankruptcy.
Yesterday's news about real-estate developers stating that they do not have enough money should be seen as communication to regulators, to get them to agree to this attempt to continue blowing the bubble.
Bitcoin, and other crypto-currencies went off a cliff today, losing as much as 30% of it's value.
Monopoly-money, just like post-stamp collections and other collectables have no intrinsic value, and therefore no bottom. Nobody believes that bitcoin or any of the other crypto-products out here are going to replace the financial sector. It is a pump & dump and carry/inside trade casino, which is it's only redeeming quality.
The chairman of Evergrande a real-estate developer in China, has stated that - just like Kaisa - it does not have enough money to fulfill it's financial obligations, while regulators scrambled to state that China's housing-market will remain stable.
The flow-motion train-crash that we are witnessing in China now is continuing. It will only stop when all debt has been cleared, or the government absorbs all the losses. It's clear that the CCP tries to do a Japan style silent crash, but that will simply lead to a lost decennium.
A non peer reviewed study in South Africa finds "clear, population-level evidence to suggest substantial immune evasion by the Omicron variant". It also finds "no evidence of increased re-infection risk associated with circulation of Beta or Delta variants compared to the ancestral strain in routine epidemiological data from South Africa."
In other words: Here we go again.
Russia will put forward proposals for a European security pact, to manage relation and to prevent NATO from expanding toward it's borders without a buffer-country.
NATO should grab this opportunity to stabilize relations with Russia so the US can focus on China's aggressive overtures. A agreement that guarantees that Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Finland will neither be part of NATO nor threatened by Russia could help usher in a period of relaxation, and draw Russia further into the cultural sphere of the EU.
China is cracking down on all possible sources of money outflow, including but not limited to: casino's, NFT's, bitcoin and other crypto currencies and listing companies on remote stock exchanges, while banks have been ordered not to speculate on the value of the Yuan.
Also: the civil service state exams have become highly popular, with 2 million candidates eyeing 31 thousand jobs, while in 2003 only 125 thousand candidates wanted to work for the government.
Omicron the COVID19 variant is continuing it's spread around the world, and turns out to have been around in several countries at least weeks before South Africa sounded the alarm.
Meanwhile the media is asking the wrong questions, such as which variant spreads faster, because the delta variant could then outrun omicron, but the real question is of course if being infected with delta or being vaccinated prevents serious infection from omicron. The fact that so many people on planes from South Africa were infected, suggests that those people were vaccinated, and therefore not tested, but still carried omicron and got sick from it.
Tensions between Russia and NATO are rising, as Russia is claiming that NATO want to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, and station troops there, and has been massing a substantial army at the border. This in a background of mutual distrust as NATO, the US and Russia have been expelling staff from each other's embassy's.
NATO has been supplying Ukraine with weapons, and has done training in international context since the 1990's, but there does not seem to be anything that can be described as a "NATO presence" in the country.
Russia will no longer use Ukraine as a gas transit country after 2024, thereby denying Ukraine billions in funding according to Naftogaz.
This is of course completely unrelated to Germany's reluctance to certify the new North-Stream II natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
No news
No news
stock markets worldwide are down as governments worldwide are taking measures to try to prevent / slow down the spread of the new Omicron variant which has already been detected in several European and Middle East countries.
First indications are that people that have been vaccinated, or that had COVID19 before can be re-infected. In other news: Molnupiravir is far less effective that earlier reported.
The new COVID19 variant will go by the name Omicron.
Lets hope that - like the letter - this will stay small.
COVID19 variant B.1.1.529 is setting off alarms bells around the world, with most countries limiting flights from area's where this variant is active.
This variant not only has really different spikes, which negates vaccine induced immunity, but it is also spreading really fast in South Africa. Will this be the Epsilon? Although alarming, we now have several kinds of anti-body therapies, a new generic virus blocker, and massive amounts of capacity and the knowledge to make new vaccines.
The number of pirate attacks on the coast of Somalia has been dramatically reduced since 2019.
Marine ships might have something to do with that.
Unrest on the Solomon Islands spread from anger at the prime minister towards the local Chinatown, amidst the widespread conviction that the prime minister was bribed to drop political recognition of Taiwan in favor of China.
It doesn't help that China is known for bribing and secretive back-room deals, although that is not the fault of the poor people who's business burned. Expect bizarre claims from the Global-Times that this is actually the US's fault.
China's prime minister, the designated bad news/fall guy, is ringing the alarm-bell that economic growth in China both short term, and long term is in trouble, while its banking regulator is urging banks to give and extend loans to industries.
The nationalistic course set out by it's Winnie the Pooh lookalike discouraged investment that might have helped prevent the middle income trap, and with it's population dividend changing to a elderly people costs sink it's in for a lot of trouble. High savings might have offset that, but with the housing bubble popping, high off-balance sheet local government debt, and wasteful spending on the BRI, things don't look bright for the future.
Organized looting is hitting several stores in the US.
Maybe the looters are copying the tactics used in South Africa.
NASA launched DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test that will be the first ever attempt to deflect the orbit of a small meteorite.
We might go the way of the dodo, but we won't go the way of the dinosaurs.
The US, China, Japan, India, South Korea and the UK, plan to simultaneous release oil from their respective strategic reserves to dampen the price of oil, and thereby inflation.
Inflation is biting.
The effective dictator of Turkey, vowed to continue fighting it's "economic war of independence", which is apparently keeping interest rates lower than the inflation rate.
Predictably the rest of the world thinks he is a mad uncle, and acted accordingly, sending the lire plumbing.
Regulators in China have ordered banks to expand credit to developers this November in a bid to give the crashing real-estate sector room to breath, while companies like Evergrande are listing more shares in a bid to raise money.
Evergrande is doing it through it's electric car company, but the money will without a doubt be used to extend the suffering of the real-estate company, while it's chairman Hui is trying desperately to play poker with the state and everybody else (it worked before).
Tensions on the border between Belarus and EU countries and Russia and Ukraine remain high, due to the refugees trying to enter the EU and Russia's military buildup.
Although no party wants a full-blown conflict, changes are that miscalculations or dynamics on the ground, can lead to escalation with unforeseen consequences.
Insecurity is griping the financial markets, with sky-high stock and housing markets, high inflation, downward Bitcoin, a collapsing housing market in China and risks popping up everywhere due to bad loans and *geopolitical insecurity *.
Insecurity leads to fear, fear leads to panic, panic leads to irrational thinking & fleeing in safety..
No big news
Anti-lockdown riots escalated into a orgy of violence, mostly directed against the police, in Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Other demonstrations planned for the next day in other cities were canceled by their respective organizers, who were shaken by the ferocity of the violence in Rotterdam.
After the Netherlands, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia and Belgium also go into a limited COVID19 induced lockdown.
The whole of Northern Europe is in full influenza season.
India decided to withdraw its controversial farm liberalization laws.
After a year of protests and recently 8 deaths Modi decided that this was a battle he could not win.
The slow motion real-estate crash in China continues, with Evergrande selling off more assets such as shares in HengTen, a Netflix clone.
Others developers have seen the light, and are directly issuing new shares at steep discounts, now that the bond market has locked up, and house sales have come to a complete stop.
Walking dead Evergrande is selling assets in a fire sale to raise funds in a bit to delay the inevitable. A electric motor maker it bought for $78.4 million was sold for $2.3 million.
High risk credit markets in and for China have dried up, which means that there is no way the principle can be rolled over. Only a bail-out can save Evergrande.
ConsenSys, a web3.0 company has raised $200 million, which gives it a valuation of $3.2 billion.
Web 3.0 is the idea that you can create value by doing exactly the same as is happening right now, but then distributed and 10x more expensive.
China has restricted access to AIS ship tracking data collected in Chinese waters to domestic users only.
China is falling back on old instincts that tells them that any data can and will be used against you, a instinct that in the longer term will revert all the progress of the last 40 years. It also is a clear sign that the maritime militia are going to play a big role in the planed conquest of Taiwan, probably by massing a huge fleet of 8.000 ships - of which 400 will be PLAN marine ships - towards Taiwan.
The US US-China Economic and Security Review Commission annual report reports about the security threat from China : "The CCP is a long-term, consequential, menacing adversary" and "combined triumphal-ism and paranoia elevate the likelihood of risky decisions, aggression and miscalculation by Beijing and necessitate US vigilance."
It recommends massive amounts of ballistic and anti-ship missiles, and increased intelligence. Surprisingly clear-eyed analyses and advice.
Rising inflation is causing insecurity among investors and putting pressure on central banks worldwide to raise interest rates.
The inflation is a temporary effect caused by resorting, restarting and re-balancing commodities, production and logistics, but it is forcing policymakers to be seen as doing something. Problem is that higher interest rates will crater the house-market, increase insolvency rates, slow economic growth and cause the stock-market to nose-dive.
Massive flooding cut of all the roads between Vancouver and the rest of Canada.
The flooding is due to the huge amounts of rain that fell from an bigger then normal atmospheric river, due to climate change.
China has set a course for energy-efficiency, 'anti-money worshiping', anti 'hedonism', and against 'extreme individualism', and toward 'stronger ideological work', and 'stricter governance'.
The familiar top-down approach coming out of Beijing seems determined to crush another sector of the economy into the ground, while hyphening up it's North-Korea style moral-ism.
Debris in orbit around the earth forced astronauts in the International Space Station to perform maneuvers to dodge it, and made parts of the space station unsafe.
According to the Pentagon the debris is the result of Russia testing a anti-satellite weapon. This happened before when China and the US did the same, and is likely meant as not just a test, but as a warning that Russia has the capability to take down any satellite..
China state media are emphasizing that: 'The focus of common prosperity is an adjustment from "making the cake bigger" to "cutting it fairly".',
Which together with getting rid of GDP growth targets, and popping of the real-estate bubble, seem to suggest that the state thinks that the period of economic growth in China is over.
Chinese state media are writing that China will press for "national reunification" with Taiwan "no matter the cost" and "Washington must understand that it has gone too far, leaving China with no way back.", all signaling that the 3rd term of China's dictator will be when the Taiwan issue will be decided.
The usual bluster which can be translated as: She wanted to leave me, therefore I had no choice but to kill her. China does not seem to understand that threatening an American does not lead to the American hiding indoors as Chinese would do, but to the American buying a bigger gun. The fact that China is building up it's military could lead the US the decide that if there is to be a conflict, it will happen on it's terms, not when China is ready. The same kind of thinking by German planners lead to WW1. The GlobalTimes is also calling India a "Loser" for militarizing the border following the border skirmishes with China, and calling Europe falling and stubborn for not listening to China in what must be a bid to make enemies with everybody.
China has been pressuring US companies in a bid to drop the tariffs the US has instated against China, and to stop other laws that seek to enhance US competitiveness.
The official China line that it is US companies and consumers paying for the tariffs is not true. It has helped convince companies to move their supply chains to countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia, thereby reducing the time China has in moving up the value-chain (the middle income trap). The fact that the tariffs are hurting was already quite clear from the fact that China was seeking several times to have them removed as a precondition to start talks. It is astonishing that China understands the mind-set of the rest of the US so badly that they thought this would a) have effect, and b) not leak out, and have the exact opposite effect.
According to recruiters there is a exodus of employers heading for the exit at Facebook.
It seems that their own people don't believe in the metaverse or the company, and can't convince them-self to stay.
The US is considering adding Germany, Japan, South-Korea and India to the Nine Eyes intelligence sharing group that so far consists of the UK, US, Australia and New Zealand.
Pakistan, the "iron brother" of China, that was hiding and aiding Al-Qaeda and the Taliban while officially an ally of the US, is fuming in anger that the US wants to work with India, and threatens to withhold cooperation on issues such as Afghanistan. Remember: If the name of the country ends with 'stan', it is bat-shit crazy.
North Korea, the country that thinks that squid game is too humane has been taking measures to ensure that their slave labor in China and Russia doesn't run away.
There are about 50.000 North Koreans working in China, who sometimes do mass attempts to break out of the labor camps they are being held in, despite the risks to their families.
The number of persons leaving Armenia is reaching record numbers.
Almost 3% of the population (temporally?) left for Russia.
The border wars continue with Belarus reportedly using non-lethal weapons against border guards and handing out cutters and tear gas to migrants trying to cross the border into Poland and Lithuania.
Airlines have reported that they will no longer fly migrants to Belarus for fear of being blacklisted by the EU for helping in this hybrid war.
Inflation in China is running out of control, and it is doubtful ether China can raise interest rates, setting the stage for runaway inflation.
Fuel, commodity, vegetable and factory pricing is already sky-high, but since company debt is huge in China it would lead to technical default for massive amounts of company's if the interest rates where increased, while inflation would make them manageable..
Russian troop build-up at the border of Ukraine has fueled fears that it might invade Ukraine.
Russia has denounced flights of NATO spy planes along the Black Sea coast.
India is in the process of outlawing crypto-currencies.
This after concern was raised by the central bank that crypto-currency's are highly volatile, and the government voiced concern that they are used for money laundry and terrorism financing. It seems unrelated to the Karnataka bitcoin scam.
Mumbai is on the alert after a tipoff about a potential bomb threat from a insane informant.
The caller, who lives with his mom did similar callings a week before, and according to his relatives he is insane and does this all the time.
A energy positive method to convert ammonia (NH3) to hydrogen (H2) has been found.
Although pure ammonia is not nice to handle, hydrogen bound to nitrogen in ammonia is the easy-st way to store large amounts of hydrogen in and for shipping, trucks and backup power, . The hydrogen economy is really the ammonia economy.
An unusual COVID19 variant B.1.640 has been found in France, Italy, Swiss and the UK which has unusual spikes.
It infected 24 people at a French school, and is believed to have originated in Africa where likely more strains are circulating.
Inflation is on the rise around the world, and no longer limited to shipping and energy.
Shortages of workers in the US and EU make it likely that raising wages will lock-in part of the inflation.
India's chief defense general states that China has become it's biggest security threat.
Another of Xi's "brilliant moves". If China would not have picked a fight with India to show it who's boss, India would not have been part of the Quad.
A China propaganda mouthpiece again declares that the US should not question it's determination in reaching it's unshakeable goal.
Another of Xi's "brilliant moves". If China would have simply kept it's word, and allowed Hong Kong to keep it's own internal politics until 2046, Taiwan could have been persuaded to relinquish it's foreign policy, and simply become a - mostly self-ruled - autonomous province within China. Instead it seems to think that others will give it what it want if it only wants it badly enough, which is classic wishful thinking. The US is simply warning that it will shoot back if China starts shooting Taiwan, and the more threatening China behaves, the more countermeasures against it it creates.
The sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CCP approved it's dictator's full speed ahead crash-course towards a centralized, fascist economy and WW3 over Taiwan with the Quad and NATO.
After Mao's cultural revolution got China on it's knees, Deng got it to stand on one feet again, and now Xi is determined to get it's leg shot off. This farmer hastily made a looks-like-it copy of some weapons with inferior materials, and rushes of to use it into battle against his aggressive American neighbor who has been fighting for years, is supported by his friends and the whole neighborhood and who doesn't skimp on material and practicing.
Palm oil might be a driver for cancer proliferation, according to a new study.
This is good news for the Indonesian rain forests, but terrible news for Unilever.
India is asking for 1 trillion dollar to help switch to green sources of energy instead of building massive amounts of coal-powered plants, since coal does not have to be imported.
Nice planet you have there .. would be a shame if something were to happen to it.
Afghanistan is emptying as people are voting with their feet, and are driven by the worsening economic situation.
More then 4000 people a day have been crossing the Iranian border alone since the fall of Kabul.
Tensions between the EU and Belarus are escalating as Belarus is actively helping migrants get into the EU, while Poland is using violence against asylum seekers, which is clearly against refugee treaties.
Russia correctly pointed out that this is because there is a clear conflict between what the EU claims to stand for, and the desire to keep migrants out.
Evergrande is trying another slight of hand to raise funds to continue their desperate all-or-nothing gambling, this time with stock sales to itself, to be used as collateral?
Nio a EV car-maker that has been operating since 2018 is having a hard time in the current marker, but Evergrande which has never produced a car claims it can start manufacturing 6 models now, and be so successful that it will compensate for the hundreds of billions of losses it raked up in it's real-estate company.
Scientists have made record observations of gravitational waves, and can use these to observe things deep in the universe that are right now hidden.
Most of the new observations so far have been black holes merging or circling, which generates massive waves, and more is likely to follow when smaller waves can be detected.
Zambia, South Africa has major electric power issues as power went down in Zambia, which dragged down the whole Southern African Power Pool.
SA is set to build more coal power plants, while its Mineral Resources and Energy Minister calls upon other African nations to unite, to resist cutting greenhouse gases.
Kazakhstan is buying electricity from Russia as it is struggling to keep the grid from falling over as Bitcoin mining moved from China to the US and Kazakhstan.
Problems will be even worse next year, as Kyrgyzstan has a water shortage which will limit hydro-power generation.
The foreign hackers targeting airlines in China turns out to be Flightradar24, a well known website that displays flights all over the world in real-time using transponder information.
The Chinese obsession with secrecy and fishing in troubled water does not work well with public cloud services or any information service. In related news: one of the few usable sources of information in China, the SCMP is rumored to be taken over and neutered by a SOE.
The flow-motion car crash that is the collapse of the China real-estate bubble continues, with Kaisa Group asking for help amid disclosures it has off book debt and is out of cash.
meanwhile Evergrande and Aoyuan managed to offload some assets.
There have been more then 8 animal outbreaks of bird-flu in The Netherlands, and more in other countries in Northern Europe.
The flu is spread by wild ducks from flu reservoirs of breeding ducks in China. No indications have been found that the flue can spread to humans.
Both China and the US claim that foreign hackers - (in each case that of the opposing country) - have been hacking sensitive industrial targets.
I believe them both.
COVID19 is on the match in the Northern Hemisphere, with record numbers for low vaccination countries in Eastern Europe and Russia, but also unusually high endemic numbers in China.
In related news: India has at least 89 people with the Zika virus.
The WFP is warning for hunger in countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Ethiopia and Lebanon, besides the usual suspects in sub-Sahara Africa.
Maybe Saudi-Arabia and the Gulf countries and Pakistan are willing to continue helping the Taliban?
The SEC in the US has started the process of kicking out Chinese company's that can't hand over audit reports from it's stock exchanges, which will cumulate in these company's being expelled in 2024.
China is allergic to showing any information, since it considers any openness a potential stick to hit it with. See also the noisy emotions around TSCM sharing information. Chinese company's can't even share audit information, since doing so has - conveniently - been made illegal in China.
Another bus has been hijacked and torched in Northern Ireland, while the UK is again leaking coded threats to the press that it might tear up the Brexit deal.
London claims the border checks in the Irish sea are disproportionate and are stoking tensions in Northern Ireland, although it knows very well that those tensions are nothing compared to tensions that will erupt if a hard border is reintroduced in Ireland, which will blowup the Good Friday accords.
Tensions in Bosnia are rising, with the Serbian fraction taking steps to segregate from the fragile Bosnia federation.
Let them. Every geographic group has the right to determine their own future.
After more than 5 years of haggling and cajoling a US infrastructure bill has finally passed congress.
1 trillion might seem much, but it is less then 5% of US GDP, spread over 4 years.
Pfizer created a oral COVID19 pill, which it claims is highly effective in reducing hospitalization.
Besides Merck's Molnupiravir and now Paxlovid we also have anti-body therapy and anti-inflammation therapies. It might not look like it now, but the fight against COVID19 is over. We won.
A modified DJI drone was used in a failed 2020 attach on a electrical substation in the US.
The most surprising is how cheap such a attack is.
99 people died and at least 100 where injured in a explosion in Freetown, Sierra Leone, when people tried to scavenge fuel from a fuel tanker caught in a small traffic accident.
Accidents like this happen quite a lot but people never seem to get the message, or they know from experience that the changes of a explosion are quite low.
Several countries in the EU have changed their COVID19 passport requirement from vaccinated / had it / passed a test to only vaccinated / had it.
Integrity of the human body is a fundamental right, and requirement to be vaccinated or be effectively banned from public spaces clearly undermines that right, no matter how pressing controlling COVID19 is..
North Korea has ordered is military to be prepared for "No. 1 combat readiness"
This apparently in response to US, South Korea military exercises.
Pakistan is scrambling to buy LNG to be delivered within this month.
Sounds like the lights might go out next month.
The latest developments in the slow motion popping of China's housing bubble are that Xinyuan Real Estate and Yango Group managed to delay payment of bonds, while China Properties Group defaulted on a $226 million bond and Kaisa shares have suspended trading .
In a effort to calm markets Hong Kong's SFC claims there are no systemic financial risks, while China's central bank said that spillover effect are controllable, and that dollar bonds should be repaid, but JPMorgan cut forecasts of growth 1% lower. Banks meanwhile are reluctant to give mortgages, but mortgage-backed securities are now up offering a route to get mortgages of their books, with the explicit approval of the central bank. Coastal provinces are told to allocate land for social housing in coastal provinces, which will not help stabilize prices.
The Fed, BoE and ECB will for now not raise interest rates while economic growth disappoints and "temporary" inflation continuing, with food prices now the highest in the last 10 years, and energy prices still high up.
Calibrating supply lines up costs time and creates friction, which will disappear within a year, but for now its one step back.
After Grenfell-style fires, the recent collapse of a tower in Nigeria and one in Florida, and now power cuts in China it should be clear to anybody what the drawbacks of high-rise buildings are. If power is cuts, the pumps, the heating and the elevators are all dead, if there is a fire, a high-rise quickly becomes a dead-trap due to the updraft. And finally: construction and maintenance are critical.
China wants to stockpile metals such a cobalt and nickel so as to reduce it's dependence on foreign imports.
Which is a perfectly normal and smart thing to do, where it not against the background of heightening tensions in the Taiwan strait.
Another Chinese stock market listing withdrawal where again hints have been made that the listing process is at fault.
What is it that we don't see? Does a Red Prince want to be bribed?
The slow motion super-tanker crash that is the collapse of the housing bubble in China continues, with Kaisa missing payments on it's "common people targeted" bonds.
Kaisa is seeking buyers for it's properties, while Yango is seeking to do a slight of hand on it's dollar offshore bonds, while Evergrande sold it European electric car supplier Protean and Modern Land failed to pay bonds which triggers default legalese which it is trying to "woo" away. China's regulators are busy trying to make sure that any funds/proceeds that exist will be used to finish existing houses, which likely means that even bond-holders will be wiped out.
After GB, Russia and Eastern Europe, Western Europe is now also dealing with a up-tick in COVID19 cases as the flue season is in full swing.
Unless a variant such as A.30 manages to break through, the impact should be limited to mask mandates and horeca/crowd restrictions.
Prices of coffee beans on the open markets have almost doubled, due to bad weather in Brazil.
Coffee grinders buying beans on the open markets will feel the shocks, but consumer impact should be limited in the rich world, since raw manufacturing prices are a small part of the total price.
Algeria and morocco are again angry at each other for supporting each others independence fighters in respectively Western Sahara and Kabylia.
The escalation has included denying flyover, stopping gas transits, and limited unattributed military actions in borderlands.
COPS26 has failed to reach it's already very limited goals, and has even no agreement on methane emissions.
It was already clear that India, China and Russia would not agree to any commitment to stop burning coal in the foreseeable future, which necessitated the switch to methane as greenhouse-gas as a focal point to be able to claim any success, but even this failed hard.
COVID19 cases have continued to go up in China.
Expect more lockdowns, and extreme behavior, since going back upon the COVID-zero strategy means loosing face, and it is better to have 1,3 billion people suffer, then to have the leader admit he was wrong.
Panic buying broke out in China leading to empty shelves as people interpreted the stockpiling advice as a hint that the invasion of Taiwan was near.
In a empire where officials refuse to be clear, criticism is done by referring to old poems, and lying is normal to help maintain face, people have learned to overinterpretate.
Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Panama created a new protected marine wildlife zone (CMAR) to combine existing reserves, and protect migrating species.
The so-called Chinese "ghosts fleets" have become a real problem.
Loyalists in Northern Ireland have hijacked and torched a bus to express dissatisfaction with the NI protocol.
This could simply be solved by declaring that British sausages contain to little meat to qualify as meat-product, and are therefore allowed to be imported into the EU without restriction.
Another caravan of approx 3000 people is heading toward the US, while record number of Afghan people are clogging the immigration services of countries in the EU.
It seems like we're in a new Migration Period, even though climate change is just getting started.
Taiwan has announced it will start training it's reserve troops, as China is beating the drums of war.
No escalation is expected before the end of 2022 though.
Fighting in Tigray, Ethiopia has taken a turn as the ethnic group is now on a mars to the capital, while the government is asking people to take up arms to stop the TPLF.
Since the Oromo, the biggest ethnic group, has ganged up with the TPLF against a president who does not have to support of it's own tribe (the Oromo), it looks like the days of this government are numbered.
Another crypto currency got exposed as a scam, while the US Treasury Department is asking Congress for powers to regulate stable-coins.
This time it was Squid, a cryptocurrency trying to lift along on the popularity of the Netflix series.
China has a deep shortage of vegetables, leading to doubling of prices.
It's government has also called upon people to start stockpiling, but claims it's against possible COVID restrictions, not war with the US over Taiwan.
Poland is threatening to continue polluting if the EU doesn't back off from it's demands about an independent judiciary.
This while the Turow coal mine is already outlawed, and continues to operate anyway, making it quite clear what Poland thinks about climate change.
A luxury 21 floor residential building collapsed in Lagos, Nigeria, leading to 106 people dead or missing including its owner Femi Osibona.
At least the owner had an clear incentive to do quality control.
The Chinese propaganda outlet GlobalTimes reports that CSIRO is actually an espionage outlet, endangering China's national security, and that it has been given a warning as punishment after it was reported to the police, which also confiscated it's illegal income. This while it is asking the Chinese people to: "trust that we are constantly moving in the right way toward the goal of national reunification [with Taiwan]."
The "espionage" in question was monitoring and reporting how much plastic is floating in the sea around Shanghai. The Fifth column paranoia is taking it's toll.
93% of houses bought/sold by Zillow under their iBuyers program where sold at a loss.
Although the sample-rate was limited, the fact that Zillow stopped the program can indicate that it detected a market downturn, since it has a better view of the housing market is the US than anybody.
More and more evidence is being unearthed that confirms the first fascist president of the US actively planned to grab a second term by means of a coup, because his ego is to fragile to contemplate the alternative.
This is what you get when a mean kid does not get told "NO" at a young enough age.
The US's secretary of state warned his Chinese counterpart that the US strongly opposes China's threatening of Taiwan in terms that leave no room for interpretation.
After this and earlier statements by the president of the US, China now knows it will either have to do a extremely risky lightening strike attack, or wait to see if the US is really distracted / unable to interfere in the future. A lightening strike attack is unlikely to succeed.
The Taliban shot 12 people at an Afghan wedding for the crime of playing music .
Or in general: having fun. Greedy meme's don't want any competition. It doesn't matter whether its sex, culture, science, or sport: if it takes mind-share away from it, it must be bad.
North Korea, the country that has just extolled the delights of eating black swan as it's population is again suffering hunger and severe malnutrition, has threatened that the Taiwan issue could lead to war on the Korean Pensula.
China claims it has the right to invade Taiwan, since it was once for a short time part of the same country. Imagine if the US claims it has the right to invade the UK, because before the war of independence they were once a single country.
The EU is introducing new regulation aimed at securing IoT devices, through measures as no default passwords and automatic software-updates.
Any resulting regulation is planned to go into force in 2024
The US military has began training air-force pilots in recognizing and taking down Chinese fighter jets.
The result of the current view that China is the dominant threat to world piece, aka: "pacing threat", after China's military buildup last decennial and bellicose threatening of it's neighbors, friends and the whole world.
NASA's aging space telescope Hubble is again in "safe mode" due to a detected problem.
Time to finally retire it?
China's "Taiwan Affairs Office" claims that "Taiwan's fiscal revenue can be fully used to improve people's well-being" after "unification".
More silliness to understand the mind-set of the people involved: "All Taiwan compatriots who support the reunification and rejuvenation of the motherland will truly be masters of the island, participate in Taiwan's governance and the development of the motherland, and fully enjoy the well-being of development and glory of national rejuvenation" and "Those who forget their ancestors, betray the motherland and split the country will never come to a good end and will surely be spurned by the people and judged by history! The mainland will punish the diehard secessionists in accordance with the law and hold them accountable".
Democracy is not what you always thought it was, but: "democracy is to devote unsparing efforts in satisfying people's aspirations for a better life" according to China's dictators.
This from the same people why want you to believe that "human rights" includes food and shelter, and that it is therefore fine to kill, torture, silence people without so much as a trial because the "majority of the people will be better off".
Renergen, a company in South Africa has found natural gas with a unusual high concentration of helium a rare, but vital gas used for nice applications such as weather balloons.
Concerns were that the world was running out, but these concerns seem unfounded for now.
The US has an average house price to income ratio of 5.4, whereas a normal ratio should be around 2.6.
Deflation fueled by cheap SEA imports has left more money free to spend into scarce social status symbols such as housing, aggregated by near zero interest rates.
Ukraine used drones provided by Turkey in military action on it's East front against Russia backed separatists / independence fighters.
This drone has also been used to great effect by Azerbaijan and in Libya. It show that the next major war will be drone versus drone. The winner will likely be the one producing the most drones in the shortest time.
The US National Weather Service warns for record storm surges bringing the biggest tidal floods in almost 20 years to the state of Maryland.
Will Baltimore become a new 'New Orleans' type of warning to the participants of COP26? Apparently is really difficult to 1. Ban coal, 2. Institute a carbon tax / trading system, 3. Switch to electricity for transport, heating and cooking, 4. raise carbon taxes on imports from countries that refuse to play along.
China's real-estate slow motion collision continues to pick up steam as another developer bites the dust.
Yango Group is the next in line, after Evergrande, Fantasia Holdings, Sinic Holdings, China Properties, Modern Land and Chinese Estates while the NDRC meeting involved Kaisa Group, Shimao, Sino-Ocean Group, China Vanke, Central China Real Estate and Oceanwide Holdings.
Russia has imposed a nationwide paid vacation to stem drastic rising corona numbers.
Governments that peddle in propaganda and lies, always have a population distrustful of their own government. Or is this case of their government's insistence that their vaccine is safe.
Kenya's president has declared a national disaster as the drought hampering the country continues to threaten livelihoods and food security.
The size of a herd is seen as a proxy for wealth in herding societies, and when the rain finally falls those who have a alive although starving herd will quickly get a healthy herd, while those who sold early have to start from scratch.
Heavily armed special forces in Pakistan have drawn a 'red line' against the TLP march, warning that crossing it to continue to march on the capitol Islamabad will lead to bloodshed.
This after earlier confrontations with police officers lead to shootings and killings with machine guns by TLP supporters in their attempt to grab power in the bankrupt, nuclear armed country.
All economic headwind signs are on red.
It's is likely that in developed countries interest rates will increase, leading to housing price drops puncturing the current housing bubble. Monopolistic IT companies making up most of the S&P500 are facing regulatory action due to serious abuses. China's Pooh has killed several industries is his drive to make China more like North Korea and China is facing the popping of it's real-estate bubble. Supply chain troubles continue to keep consumption and profit low for the next year, and while prices for commodities are currently high, the long term outlook is less good. Worldwide tensions have increased, leading to decoupling and driving inefficiencies. Bitcoin and Ether have been exposed as massive insider trading pump and dump casino's where the house always wins. Will smart money flee in gold? The only positive lining is that the CCP will try to maintain stability while the politically sensitive winter games and two major political gatherings are up.
Evergrande and other real-estate developers continue to hang on to their fingernails, as Evergrande claims to manage to pay a 47 million dollar bond today.
Maybe the founder had some spare cash laying around? In the meantime the Chinese central bank is increasing loss-absorbing capacity in Chinese banks, preparing for a hard landing.
China is trying to cut spending on white elephant and vanity projects in the country in a attempt to cut the huge off-balance debts of the local governments.
Local government income through land sales has imploded, and the official goal has shifted from growth at all costs to balancing and common prosperity.
Let the world burn, is what India and Australia effectively are saying by refusing to commit to zero targets for greenhouse gases.
Saudi-Arabia of course agrees. Strange that countries that are most likely to literally become dead-zones seem most in a hurry to get there.
The Chinese threat toward Taiwan is one of the main concerns for the new China Mission Center of the CIA.
At least if we go into WW3, we will go in with eyes wide open.
In Vietnam 5 journalists have been convicted to prison terms for "abusing democratic rights and freedoms to infringe upon the interests of the state".
We tend to forget that - like Cuba - Vietnam is not a friend of human rights.
Russia's minister of natural resources announced 5.5 trillion rubles in investment in it's arctic regions in the next 3 years, with more to come in the years after that.
Nice to hear that Russia believes that climate change is real.
France and GB are continuing to argue over fishing rights around the Channel Islands, with France again threatening to effectively block access to it's harbours for English fishing boats and cutting of power to the islands.
France is accusing GB of not living up to it's agreement with the EU concerning historical fishing rights for French fishers around the Channel Islands in front of the French coast. If only there was a organization that could help safely guide such small petty problems into non-inflammatory territory.
The editor-in-chief of the Chinese propaganda-outlet GlobalTimes writes that if China where to attack, Taiwan would suddenly and immediately surrender.
Besides the usual propaganda bluster this whack-job article promulgates the common cynical believes within the upper echelons of the CCP that Taiwan politicians are simply trying to negotiation a higher price for submission, and that the US is only trying to use Taiwan as a stick to hit China with that will crumble the moment the moment stuff gets real.
After Djibouti, Cambodia, Pakistan, Feydhoofinolhu in the Maldives and the SCS, China will now build a base in Tajikistan.
It will probably keep insisting that China never went to war in modern times (except with Tibet, India, Vietnam, South-Korea and Taiwan and it's annexation of SCS islands from the Philippines).
Chinese real-estate developers are proposing negotiations over foreign debt repayment.
The Chinese model of extending loans, and taking haircuts could extend to western creditors if they would trust what the developers are saying (which they can't), and they are therefore more likely to try to declare bankruptcy to salvage what is there, and finally get the real picture. However: it might just be that the bond's Hong Kong pass-through structure don't give them the right to declare bankruptcy on the mainland, which could lead to a global withdrawal of capital from all Chinese bonds.
Russia has send bombers over the Barents Sea to harass NATO and/or test air defenses.
Remember this when you read complaints about US bombers again flying close to Russia, or US navy transiting through the Black Sea.
Daesh killed at least 11 people in al-Hawasha, East Iraq.
The attack and killings followed after villagers did not meet their demands after a earlier kidnapping, which seems to suggest that the Daesh cell is without support and resorting to desperate acts to survive.
The US's FCC is kicking China Telecom out off the grid within 6 months after concluding that China Telecom cannot operate as a independentt entity.
Expect loud noises from Beijing about unfair treatment of Chinese companies. It is also a clear sign that decoupling is far from over.
China continues to gobble up Hong Kong with the introduction of a censorship law to stiffly anything that might be deemed subversive or inappropriate.
Since the whole raison d'etre of Hong Kong is that it can interact with China without being a corrupt, censored, economically & juridically insecure cruel place this spells the effective end of Hong Kong.
Fuel shortages have emerged in failed state Haiti due to blockades by rival gangs who have partitioned the capital Port-au-Prince.
Tribal gangs now live off kidnappings and toll. The port's exit is blockaded by a gang that demands the resignation of the PM.
A.30 also known as A.POI.V2 is a COVID19 variant that evades existing vaccine induced anti-bodies.
It was first detected in Angola and now also in Sweden in spring 2021.
Another developer, Modern Land has defaulted as China's housing bubble continues to pop.
The domino-stones are falling, and will keep falling faster and faster.
COVID19 cases in China seem to be slowly getting out of control with more than 200 locally transmitted cases in Inner Mongolia.
This probably won't happen, since failing to contain corona would mean a huge loss of face.
US court documents from the New York Southern District appear to show massive amounts of collaboration and market distortion by Google and Facebook under the name Jedi Blue.
AMP and Google Chrome are only there of mitigate the need for cookies and keep users and ad markets locked-in, Google and Facebook already put into agreement of how to react if somebody finds out, Google does insider trading and manipulation on it's own platforms to artificially inflate prices.
Sudan's military (not South-Sudan) staged a coup and declared a state of emergency, while cutting off the internet
This apparently in support of ousted dictator Bashir, who faces extradition to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Papua New Guinea's health care system is reportedly overwhelmed with COVID19 cases.
Less then 1% percent of the third world country is vaccinated.
The UN warns that the number of people going hungry in Afghanistan has risen explosively.
"I'm like a dog chasing cars. I would not know what to do if I actually caught one." seems to apply to the Taliban.
2 people where killed, and 7 wounded in a terrorist bomb attack on the capital of Uganda, Kampala.
The attack has not yet been claimed.
China has rolled out a land tax in select regions.
Provincial income from land sales is set to drop dramatically, now that the housing bubble has burst.
Evergrande is claiming to resume building houses that still need to be finished.
Just like Wile E. Coyote, it believes that if it doesn't look down, it did not just went off a cliff. Also: the government cares most that ordinary citizen receive finished houses, or they will not be able to mortgage them.
Fighting is set to escalate in Northern Myanmar as movements of heavy weapons and army troop surges are setting the stage for new killings and refugee streams.
Besides the Rohingya and the Karen there is also the Kachin conflict.
Several policemen have been killed at rally's of the outlawed extremist TLP party on it's "brown-shirt" march towards the Pakistani capitol Islamabad.
They are upset that arbitrary killing of people loosely accused of saying something bad about Islam might not be tolerated anymore. Replace "stan" with "bat-shit crazy" and "it doesn't matter what the problem is, Islam is the solution" will give you a decent understanding of the situation in the Middle East and Middle Asia.
Evergrande managed to pull a rabbit from it's hat, by paying one bond coupon of 83 million dollar, thereby delaying a official bankruptcy with 7 days.
Announcing and then calling off sales of shares and assets, and now this seems to be a big desperate attempt to buy time to prevent having a independent curator go through the books and likely blow open the biggest bookkeeping fraud since Enron.
Evergrande's chairman Hui Ka Yan announced that it will try to become a electric car business, even though the real-estate company has never build or sold a car.
Since electric car production is one of the focal points of the CCP, and it's leader Xi Jinping this should be probably be seen as a desperate plea for rescue, which implies that Beijing has already repeatedly said "NO".
Radicalization and violence are spreading in Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh.
More then 6 people died in gang violence directed against a madrasa.
Moldova has declared a state of emergency over gas shortages due to rising prices, while Ukraine is set to get financially crunched when North Stream 2 opens.
Gas is one of the few geopolitical leverages that Russia has, and it is playing it's hand well. As soon as Germany allows the operation of NS2 Russia can cut gas-flow through Ukraine, which will not only deny Ukraine huge transit fees, but also makes it possible to cut off Ukraine completely effectively turning off the heat and the lights, without invoking the wrath of the entire EU..
Russia, Turkey and Lebanon are among the nations battling high inflation, with Russia raising the interest rate, Turkey lowering the interest rate, and Lebanon not having any effective government.
Russia's inflation rate is below 8%, while Turkey is suffering from the incompetence of it's dictator president who managed to destroy the independence of it's central bank, and got the Lire to dramatically drop in value.
The flu period in the northern hemisphere is leading to more COVID19 cases in all countries in Europe, with Eastern Europe taking the lead, leading to lockdowns in Russia, Ukraine and Latvia.
The rate of vaccination is approximate 1/3 in former Soviet states, compared to approx. 2/3 in Western Europe, due to a deep distrust against government among the population leading to 1064 people dyeing in Russia in a single day.
An explosives factory in Russia, Rjasan has exploded.
16 people died, and the factory is now a hole in the ground.
Biden, the president of the USA has stated that the US will defend Taiwan in case it is attacked by China in a interview with CNN that seems to be geared towards sending a unmistakable signal to China that a invasion will lead to WW3.
But officially there is no change in the position of the USA in regard to the "Taiwan Strait issue".
AY.4.2 a more contagious COVID19 variant has been detected in the UK, and the Netherlands.
Although the hospitalization or complication rate is not higher, and the vaccine protection also seems to hold.
All Law Enforcement Agencies in the Netherlands will have simple, automated access to all banking and payment transactions.
This while the banks in the Netherlands are busing with a "war on cash". The road to hell is paved with good intentions, and 1984 is getting closer and closer.
The mainstream media has picked up on the scams and dangers surrounding Tether.
Get ready with popcorn to watch at least two crypto bubbles to go pop.
The first successful xeno-transplantation has been done with a pig's kidney.
The patient was already brain-dead and the kidney from a pig that has been genetically engineered to not cause rejection.
The UK's bank regulators have again hinted that interest rates will rise in the near future to combat inflation.
It seems that the BoE does not believe that this inflation is transitory. Rising rates could lead to stagflation.
The US has send bombers over the Black Sea to harass Russia and/or test air defenses.
Remember this when you read complaints about Russian bombers again flying close to Germany, or Russian navy transiting through the Japanese Sea.
Paraguay is facing a power crunch, as the Itaipu dam is hampered by record low river levels.
The dam provides +/- 85% of power in Paraguay, and almost 10% of Basil's power.
China is doing a full nation effort to curb coal and power shortages to resolve "irrational pricing".
Moody, borderline politics makes China such a interesting place.
COVID19 minor outbreaks continue to pop-up in China, leading to strict lock-downs.
Eventually China will have to learn to live with Corona.
Taiwan's director of it's National Security bureau, says changes of a invasion by China are very low the next couple of years during President Tsai's term, while GlobalTimes, a propaganda outlet writes that "China's reunification must be completed" and "The definition of one China is shaped by [..] and the strong aspirations of the 1.4 billion Chinese people".
It is likely that Xi's 3rd term starting in 2022 will be geared towards more aggressive military moves, especially after Thai's term ending in 2023, and during US elections in 2024, one year before 2025, the year in which China is suppose to have the capacity required for a full scale invasion of Taiwan.
Evergrande's attempts to sell it's assets, such as it's offices and it's property management unit, have so far failed.
Is it possible that there are already big mortgages or claims on those? A company that starts extorting it's own employees for loans, and try's to pay it's contractors in natural does not do this because its it's first choice.
China's regulators are trying to sooth the markets by claiming that the popping of the real-estate bubble is controllable, and that credit by banks is being eased.
Meanwhile, house prices in china have been going down. Bubbles tend to end because people know long before they are being popped that they are in one, but prefer to ride it as long as possible.
Germany's Bundesbank president is voluntary resigning from his post with a last inflation warning as his swan-song.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Bitcoin is reaching new heights as the Bitcoin Strategy ETF is going online.
Digital currencies have re-enabled all kinds of pump and dump scams that have been outlawed on regulated exchanges.
A bug in the open source gpsd project could lead to millions of mobile devices setting their clock back to 2002 on next Sunday, October 24, 2021
Appliances that have not received updates such as weather stations and traffic lights are specifically vulnerable, but also drones, and mobile phones.
The FT has reported that Tether, a so-called stable-coin is loaning out Tether against other cryptocurrencies, instead of being pegged against the USD.
It's now officially out that Binance / Tether is giving out loans for Tether, against Bitcoin to help drive up the price of Bitcoin to artificially drive up the price of it's holdings, to maintain solvency.
The PM of Poland claims that Poland is "being attacked" following the ruling of it's supreme court that EU laws don't apply to it and the European Commission's threat to withhold EU subsidies.
The Visigrad countries, among which Poland want to have their cake and eat it to.
In the UK, The Netherlands and other parts of Europe the number of COVID19 cases is rising again.
The traditional flu season has arrived, but so far the hospitalization rate seems to be limited to people who reject vaccination.
Zillow, a realtor site in the US has stopped buying houses through it's Zillow Offers program, as a backlog has build up. Is this a indication that the housing market has turned? Zillow states that material shortages is making house-flipping more difficult.
China's banks are bracing for impact as the regulator has published a list of banks that are to big to fail, and forces banks to keep higher buffers.
They are not bracing against a the slowing down of the economy leading to more bad loans, but against the ripple effects of the real-estate crash. Expect unlimited liquidity from the central bank to the upper tier banks, and massive loans from the tier 4 banks to attempt to keep companies from falling over and disperse the pain over a long time frame. Visualize a supertanker hitting the shore.
China's economy is slowing down as it's Grey Rhino's are starting to hit, set off by the popping of the real-estate bubble.
The combination of power shortages due to it's boycott of Australia coal, moving supply chains due to wolf warrior rhetoric's and high labor costs, international trade barriers due to dumping, human rights and SOE misuse, cracking down on complete industries and sectors of the economic, have co-mingled with the big structural threats of aging, middle income trap, and Japan/S-Korea style interconnectedness (thanks to Guanxi / corruption). In a good scenario this will result in a Japanese style 'Lost Decade'.
Facebook is going full in on the idea of The Metaverse, a player one / second life kind of 3D environment.
It is not clear why The Metaverse should be successful while second life failed. Also: use of a federation protocol would be a requirement, but so far no proposals. Perhaps it needs a morale boost.
Spain's PM said that Spain will move to outlaw sex work.
Prostitution was decriminalized in 1995.
No significant news today
Another suicide attack by Daesh (ISIS) against Shiites in Afghan has claimed at least 37 deaths.
The mosque took the precaution of having armed guards, but the where shot before the attackers killed themselves. Your view on humanity is a bit weird if you think that the Taliban are a bunch of softy hippies.
China is upgrading military bases across the Taiwan strait as it prepares for war to occupy Taiwan.
The clock has started ticking.
Fights in Tigray have been escalating, with reports that Eritrea has joined forces with the Ethiopian governments ethnic coalition in fighting the Amhara.
When a country is not a country it's ethnic tribe against ethnic tribe (see also Lebanon, where people have been killed for protesting while being Shi'ite).
Facebook's troubles continue to mount as a previous whistle-blower has indicated she has shared potentially incriminating documents with the FBI.
Reports of engineers leaving for other company's because they are tired of having to explain why they work for "the evil empire" can't be good for morale either.
According to the IMF in it's Global Financial Stability Report, China has the means and tools in place to contain and manage a Evergrande invoked financial meltdown.
It seems that some people still haven't learned that China has a tendency to be "economical with the truth". Besides: the contagion has already spread beyond Evergrande.
The IMF calls upon China to save "individual firms (Evergrande)" that are perceived as "too big to fail", in a "earlier and clearly communicated intervention" to "minimize the risk of contagion".
Since its leadership think that it's a good idea to let the barbaric forces bleed, and vague communication is China's raison d'etre, it is unlikely this advice will be followed.
Water in the Gaza strip is undrinkable.
Even after processing it is to salty and polluted for even watering plants or use as showering water.
China announced that power prices will be left open to market forces, instead of being artificial frozen. Power companies had the choice of selling electricity and going bankrupt, or simply cutting power, so they did the last, and blamed conforming to government CO2 targets. Lying is a normal coping strategy in a country where honesty is considered inappropriate critique.
China's wolf-warrior diplomat in Sweden has not had his term extended.
It might be a indication that China is finally realizing that bluntly threatening countries on the other side of the world with violence if they don't do what you want is not a recipe for healthy relations.
The IMF warns against runaway inflation.
Growing pains and temporarily shortages will take at some time to subside, but none are structural, so unless real-estate and financial bubbles explode the world is on track for recovery, although weak countries did 2 steps backward and will only do one step forward.
Over 60% of inhabitants in developed countries are fully vaccinated, or just need to receive a second shot.
Unless Sinovac in completely useless, the world has largely left corona behind it, at least in economical sense.
Major flooding has destroyed more then 19000 houses and displaced large numbers of people in Shanxi province, China according to Xinhua, the state media.
Since China is notoriously "economical" with the truth", the numbers can be orders of a magnitude bigger. Local news reporting might explain why news services have recently been put on the negative list.
Modern Land, a Beijing based real-estate developer is joining Evergrande, Fantasia and numerous other real-estate developers in defaulting on it's bonds and other financial obligations.
It should be clear to anybody by now that developers in China have been insanely leveraged, and when payment problems arose years ago they kept loaning money from different sources to pay of other loans. There is simply no money left.
The suicide attack in Afghan which killed at least 47 Shia Muslims was done by a Uighur on behave of Daesh (ISIS).
It claims it is attacking the Taliban for their willingness to expels Uighur / yield to demands from China. Talks with the US in Doha have been described as constructive and realistic, but could lead eventually to splintering within the Taliban as zealots are not known for making compromises.
Coal supplies in Delhi, India's capitol are almost completely depleted.
Supplies are days away from being empty. Australian's coal that was kept in lingo by China has already been diverted, but it is to little to avoid a big crunch. Also note that shipping costs have exploded, and the US has a unloading / loading delay.
BoE is ready-ing minds for higher interest rates *now that it seems *inflation might be with us for longer than expected.
Higher interest rates will have a impact on capital costs, and therefore share prices, undercut the housing market and therefore housing prices and lead to a new period of stagflation in general.
Lebanon restored power on Sunday, after the army supplied 6000 liters of fuel to power-generators, although a fire at a Zahrani oil facility reduced that amount.
The drawing of the reserves leaves the country almost defenseless. If there was ever a sun-beaked country that would benefit from using solar power, instead of importing oil it would be Lebanon.
Lenovo has withdrew it's bid to be listed on the China, Shanghai stock exchange, which caused it's stock to drop by almost 1/5.
Comparisons with DiDi have been made, and as usual the lack of transparency feeds rumors and speculation. Lead among these is that the Red Princes want their cut.
China's so called negative list has been updated to include news services.
The current regime is doing its best to resemble North-Korea as quickly as possible.
Myanmar is further descending into civil war.
It's not just all the minority ethnic groups, but the majority groups as well.
The Chinese propaganda outlet GlobalTimes has dropped al pretensions that "unification" with Taiwan will be peaceful.
The statements are done in an article called: "US revelation of troops in Taiwan will only hasten cross-Straits war: Global Times editorial", and clearly indicates that "the critical moment [will come] earlier", "the mainland is completing its military preparations for attacking Taiwan", and "Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits". It is unlikely that statements of that magnitude in a official editorial are done without backing from the top.
Fantasia Holdings, a real-estate developer in China has defaulted on a bond.
It is likely that Evergrande is not the only developer to crash & burn as CFLD and Tahoe are also facing liquidity issues.
Worldwide food prices are the highest they have been since 2011 according to the FAO.
It is not yet clear if prices are transitionary or here to stay.
There is a zero-day bug in Apache, one of the most web-server in the world.
Expect insurance for company's against cyber-crime to go up.
The CIA has created a new China Mission Center.
Counter-terrorism is dead, big power competition is name of the game. Expect wages for non-Chinese Mandarin speakers to go up.
2 Houthi drone attacks managed to damage Saudi's King Abdullah airport.
10 people were wounded, but no fatalities were reported although the continuing Yemen conflict spells bad news for Saudi plans to develop tourism as part of efforts to diversify the economy.
Russia's dictator mocked the EU's energy transition from fossil and especially nuclear to renewables for being hasty and politically colored.
Russia seems to view climate change in the first place as an opportunity as the tree-line shifts further north.
Lebanon's power network went completely down after 2 power plants stopped operating due to fuel shortages.
Officials say that it will try to use the army's fuel reserves, but even then it is unlikely that operation will be resumed within days.
The conflict between the TPLF and government troops in Tigray, Ethiopia is continuing, with the government preparing for another surge into Tigray.
After having ruled the country for 30 years, it's difficult for the TPLF to accept others rule. Question is if Tigray manages to do a Eritrea and become independent.
China's dictator urged a peaceful takeover of Taiwan: "To achieve the reunification of the motherland by peaceful means is most in line with the overall interests of the Chinese nation, including our compatriots in Taiwan".
Xi's 3rd term will likely be completely focused on achieving 'reunification' of all Chinese, comparable to how Hitler urged reunification of all Germans, although the emphasis on peaceful is hopeful.
US military special forces are training Taiwan military forces in Taiwan.
This means US military boots on the ground, and a firm show of support towards Taiwan and against China. The slow adding of small steps mirror's China's salami slicing tactics.
Poland's supreme court ruled that EU law is incompatible with Polish law.
The illiberal Visigrad countries are moving toward the exit, or could be kicked out by the rest of the EU .
Meituan, a food delivery platform in China has been fined $533 million for cartel behavior.
It might just be that finding is the way the "Common Prosperity" policy will be implemented.
The WHO announced it has begun sending aid toward North-Korea to help combat COVID19.
The question is if North-Korea will accept it.
Land sales in China have collapsed, undercutting local government revenues.
Land sales revenue in china went from 50.7 Billion in 1998 to over 8.4 Trillion Yuan in 2020, and is a major source of financing for local government, besides illegal loans parked in SPV.
China continues to threaten Taiwan with military force, this time with 52 airplanes.
Meanwhile, the Taiwanese president claims that "a failure to defend Taiwan would not only be catastrophic for the Taiwanese, but it would overturn a security architecture that has allowed for peace and extraordinary economic development in the region for seven decades", which sounds dramatic, but isn't true, since the true bottleneck is not Taiwan but the strait of Malacca.
Facebook's outage has been resolved.
The outage not only shows how fragile a centralized infrastructure is, but in this case how limited the impact of Facebook is to society (not to big to fail). One could even argue that humanity was better of when Facebook was down.
A Facebook whistleblower claims that: "The version of Facebook that exists today is tearing our societies apart and causing ethnic violence around the world".
The 37-year-old data scientist has also worked for other companies including Google and Pintrest, and claims that Facebook is substantially worse. Time and time again reports show up that Facebook is consistently up-playing engagement - and therefore profit - at the expense of extreme polarization which leads to all kinds of Radicalization.
Health care workers warn that Afghan health care is facing an imminent collapse.
It seems like Afghan is about to join Yemen and Somalia in sliding back toward the glorious period of the middle ages.
China again urges the US to 'correct its mistakes' regarding it's behavior toward China if it want to restore military ties, which likely refers to the US request to restore the hot-line to prevent military escalation of conflicts.
Considering urgings earlier this likely entails the dropping of trade tariffs and support to Taiwan. It also seems to suggest that the resolving of the prosecution of the CFO of Huawei was not enough to restart dialog. China seems to seriously misread the intent of the US, which is not aimed at restoring ties from a position of weakness, but managing competition and blocking China's militarism.
China continues to threaten Taiwan with military force, this time with a record wave of 38 planes.
The GlobalTimes claims that : 'Once the order to attack is given, the PLA's pilots will fight as "experienced veterans."' and 'They have thus turned themselves into a block that the Chinese mainland must get rid of strategically and an evil force the mainland must crush.' which seems to suggest that a course of action has already be decided, and the only discussion is about the 'when'.
"I don't believe the prime minister is responsible for what's in the shops" was the reply of the prime minister of the UK in reply to questions about heavy shortages of fuel, butchers, and in general the breakdown of supply chains in the UK following Brexit.
It seems unlikely that Britain's famous reasonable pragmatism has found a home is this administration. The big question now is how bad things have to become for parliament to step in.
The government of Algeria recalled its ambassador from France and banned French military planes from flyovers after France restricted visa requirements and undiplomatic remarks from president Macron.
"was sich liebt, das neckt sich"
A new leak called 'The Pandora Papers' of trust fund owners has been made public, showing ownership of assets belonging to politicians in deeply corrupt countries.
Since the first big leaks had no significant impact, it is unlikely that this new leak will have lasting consequences.
The farmer protests in India that have been going on for more then 10 months have escalated after a car from a the minister of Home Affairs, ran over protesting farmers.
4 farmers died on the spot, and 4 people in the car of whom 3 were BJP members were lynched by the enraged farmers. A journalist also died under unknown circumstances. The protest are against liberalizations of agricultural markets that undermines the mandi system of minimal prices and guaranteed buyers.
Russia deprives Ukraine from gas transit revenues.
Ukraine call's for sanctions amid claims that Russia is using pipeline tactics as a strategic weapon.
China continues to threaten Taiwan with military force.
This time with 25 military jets, which it hopes will scare Taiwan so much it decides to give up free speech, a higher standard of living, basic human rights, freedom of cultural expression and democracy.
Molnupiravir,a game-changing antiviral drug appears to be effective and safe in clinical trials against COVID19.
The drug creates mutations in RNA based virii, that hinder it's propagation, but could also speed up it's evolution. It could also potentially create birth defects, although no indications have been found so far. It could work against all known RNA viruses, including rabies, Hepatitis C, Yellow fever, Dengue, West Nile, Tick-borne encephalitis, Zika, etc.
Ho Chi Minh City, the capitol of Vietnam is no longer under a complete COVID19 lockdown.
The period in which people were not even allowed to leave their house lasted 3 months, but a more limited lockdown stays in place, as the Delta variant has become endemic.
"Bandits" have abducted 24 people and killed 21 people in Northern Nigeria.
These attacks have become common, and have to been seen as part of a (economic) struggle between Islamic Fulani herders and Christian Hausa farmers.
Venezuela drops 6 zero's from it's currency.
According to the IMF its inflation rate *is approximate *5500% and one loaf of bread costs 7 million bolivar.
More shortages have emerged in the UK as compounding effects of Brexit are battering the country.
Besides lorry drivers, and butchers compounding effects have led to breaking of supply chains and fuel hoarding as the British government still seems to think that problems will magically go away if they just keep positive and do nothing.
North Korea, the most miserable place on earth, and shiny example for Xi Jinping, is launching more rockets, while saying it want's to talk while rebuffing offers from the US to do just that.
As usual this means that it wants to be bribed with aid to feed its starving population into starting meaningless talks that end nowhere and serve no other purpose than extracting concessions.
There was no consequential news today.
An explosion has hit a condo building in Göteborg, Sweden at 5 o clock in the morning.
25 people were injured in the blast.
Android will soon get a confidential picture and video folder, in which to store to nude images, and other embarrassing content.
Malware that explicitly targets this folder can be expected soon thereafter.
Microsoft auto-discover for email and other services incorrectly tries to fetch settings from autodiscover.com, autodiscover.nl, autodiscover.de, etc.
This could be used to hack credentials from ao.. email-accounts, which is why Microsoft is no trying to mitigate by buying these domains.
The airport of La Palma, Canary islands, Spain, has closed after renewed volcanic eruptions.
So far no people have been killed or seriously injured.
More zero day exploits (66) have been found this year then ever before, and the year is not even over.
Reduction of attack surfaces and information segmentation are going to be the new trend.
16 provinces in China have instituted power rationing measures as the electrical grid is buckling under the load due to a shortage of coal.
This problem might be related to the sanctions China put upon coal imports from Australia for petty grievances.
All cryptocurrency transactions in China have been banned.
Crypto currencies, offshore gambling, buying foreign companies/real-estate, cryptocurrencies and listing companies on international stock exchanges are all ways to circumvent capital controls in China
Panic buying in the UK is leading to extra fuel shortages while it has a shortage of a hundred thousand truck drivers because of Brexit.
The government has announced that it will allow ten thousand visa for a period of 3 months to help the shortage, and that the military will train new truck drivers which has been described as too little, too late.
Sudan claims it has repelled Ethiopian troops that it claims had invaded Sudan
More clashes have been deported in the last months in the area, although independent verification is difficult.
China's big internet company's pledge support for Xi's "common prosperity" targets at the WIC in Wuzhen
Since the CCP/state is best capable of determining and addressing the needs of the people according to CCP logic, this seems to be the equivalent of sheep cheering/pledging to be shoarma.
Turkey is threatening to buy more Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.
Turkey was banned from buying F-35 because of earlier purchases, and has created tensions with other NATO partners.
An earthquake has hit close to Manila, the capital of the Philippines.
Casualties are likely minimal since the Philippines is used to earthquakes.
The $305 Billion indebted Chinese developer Evergrande has missed its latest bond pay-out, and likely has no cash reserves.
China's government has given local governments orders to prepare for a crash, since real-estate is responsible for 30% of it's GDP.
Almost 1/3 of all UK petrol stations of BP have run out of some fuel, such as diesel.
The UK 's government announced that it will give out temporary visa's for lorry drivers and butchers, although it is unlikely this will completely fix the shortages caused by Brexit.
The Taliban hang bodies of executed criminals in Herat, the capital of Afghanistan.
A spokesman for the USA government earlier called chopping of hands for petty crimes a violation of human rights.
The "red princess" and CFO of Huawei returned home to China.
A deal was made with the prosecution of the USA in which lying was admitted, but not guild. The Canadians that were taken hostage by China in retaliation were also released.
Quad countries re-commit to keeping the SCS "free".
China's mouthpiece GlobalTimes, claimed the efforts are doomed to fail, because the USA is falling apart.
Another suicide attack took place in Mogadishu, the capital of the failed state of Somalia.
The attack that killed at least 7 people was claimed by Al-Shabab, a Al-Qaeda allied group.